BREXIT won't happen until 2019.

As long as there is uncertainty I remain bearish, bolstered by a positive swap I consider it my best strategy. It might go up, and keep doing so through the article 50 and I can ride it out knowing that every night I get some extra breathing room and can cover with other pairs.

I had the same thought as you on TRY and MXN (sort of, as the trend was bullish)... started adding long positions to cover my negative short positions, now it's running sideways and swap rats on my longs started eating into my positions... time to close the long positions as time of uncertainty reared it's head. Took a 20% loss in that exercise.

Closed out my MXN in profit last night and closed the chart, I'm not comfortable trading it again any time soon.

Assuming you are right, you will make the profits now, and I will make them later in the year, if you are wrong, I will make the profits now and you will be stuck with long positions with negative swap if you hold, which would be unrecoverable in the long term.

@xgavinc How about riding both the current bullish wave and then the later bearish one, one trend at a time? I guess this could work for some traders as approach as well.

tormess posted:
@xgavinc How about riding both the current bullish wave and then the later bearish one, one trend at a time? I guess this could work for some traders as approach as well.

You can do that if you are comfortable. I favor direction with positive swaps because I hold over longer periods.

Question you should be asking is 'do I want to open a long position because I'm confident it will remain bullish and in my favor?' or 'do I want to go long because it looks as if it's trending upward?'

Take into consideration the probability of a correction... if it's a correction and not a trend change, you will be in a bad position (long with opposite trend + negative swap). Daily charts are still showing a trend to the down side (I take that into consideration because I hold for a longer time), so if you think you can open a long and close in profit (within a daily bar) and you are 100% confident, then make your intraday trade.

More EU regulators are preparing for broker exodus from the UK once Brexit takes place. Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) has set up a designated email for UK-regulated financial service providers which seek to move their registration or operations s in Germany. (https://smnweekly.com/2017/01/18/germany-also-prepares-to-assist-financial-entities-seeking-to-exit-the-uk/) The move aims to facilitate the relocation of UK-licensed financial entities in the context of Brexit.

mlawson71 posted:
Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) has set up a designated email for UK-regulated financial service providers which seek to move their registration or operations s in Germany. The move aims to facilitate the relocation of UK-licensed financial entities in the context of Brexit.

Hah, this is a clever move by the German regulator 😄

Looking at the latest news from the British parliament, Brexit may well happen even before 2019!