Australia's economy is not as healthy as it appears, and the AUD will be negatively impacted!

Although Australian employment grew by 38.5k jobs, surpassing the consensus expectation of 23.7k, the labour market report's details were disappointing for several reasons.

Although Australian employment grew by 38.5k jobs, surpassing the consensus expectation of 23.7k, the labour market report's details were disappointing for several reasons.

Australia Employment Release

 Source: Finlogix Economic CalendarHistorical Data for Employment Change in Australia

 Source: Finlogix Economic CalendarFirstly, the growth in employment was solely in part-time work, which increased by 44.6k jobs, while full-time employment decreased by 6.1k jobs. Secondly, the total hours worked during the month remained unchanged. Thirdly, the slower job growth pace could not keep up with the influx of new job seekers, causing the unemployment rate to rise from 3.9% to 4.1%. Although the unemployment rate was rounded up from 4.05%, it still aligns with the RBA’s Q2 forecast in the first quarter of the month. Additionally, the worker underutilization rate rose from 10.30% to 10.7%, its highest level in three months.

Australia Bureau Labour Statistics

 Source: ABS, RBAFollowing the labour market data release, the Australian rates market shifted from considering a modest chance of a rate hike by year-end to pricing in about a 50% chance of a rate cut by year-end, which has negatively impacted the AUD. However, we believe this market reaction is excessive, as labour market data is notoriously volatile and was likely affected by the Easter holidays.

AUDUSD H1 Chart  

 Source: Finlogix Charts The ABS noted that of the 30k increase in unemployment, a significant number of individuals reported having a job but were waiting to start. Therefore, Australia's unemployment rate is expected to reverse next month. The employment-to-population ratio remained at 64%, indicating little easing in labour market slack this month.

Moreover, a substantial amount of stimulus will be injected into the economy over the next six months as the government implements rental and electricity rebates, and the Stage 3 income tax cuts take effect on July 1. Consequently, the most likely scenario for interest rates remains the RBA maintaining its current stance throughout 2024.

Insights Inspired by Credit Agricole (FX Daily USD): Credit to Their Analysis for Shaping Some Aspects of This Text

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

Regulace: ASIC (Australia), FSCA (South Africa)
read more
China’s GDP Surprise Boosts Risk Currencies, CPI Eyed

China’s GDP Surprise Boosts Risk Currencies, CPI Eyed

China’s Q2 GDP surprise at 5.2% YoY sparked a positive reaction across global markets on July 15, 2025. Commodity currencies like AUD and NZD advanced modestly, while Gold hovered near $3,350 ahead of key U.S. CPI data. The Japanese Yen weakened despite safe-haven flows, as 10-year JGB yields hit their highest since 2008, highlighting BoJ-Fed policy divergence.
Moneta Markets | Před 13 h 16 min
Oil and Copper Surge as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Escalate | 9th July, 2025

Oil and Copper Surge as Geopolitical and Trade Risks Escalate | 9th July, 2025

On July 9, oil jumps above $67.00 on renewed Red Sea attacks, while copper surges past $5.50 after Trump vows 50% tariffs if re-elected. DXY edges up past 97.50 ahead of FOMC Minutes. China’s CPI surprises slightly at 0.1% YoY, offering mixed signals. AUD/USD trades flat, and markets brace for further volatility driven by Fed outlook and trade policy threats.
Moneta Markets | Před 6 dny
Central Bank Outlook and Trade Shift Sentiment | 8th July, 2025

Central Bank Outlook and Trade Shift Sentiment | 8th July, 2025

On July 8, gold slips below $3,350 as risk appetite improves. Silver holds steady near $36.90, while AUD/USD rises to 0.6855 ahead of the RBA decision. USD/JPY surges above 161.00 as BoJ tightening bets fade. PBOC sets USD/CNY at 7.1534, signaling stability. Focus now shifts to US CPI, central bank guidance, and trade progress for market direction.
Moneta Markets | Před 7 dny
Rate Shifts Steer FX Markets as Silver Holds Strong

Rate Shifts Steer FX Markets as Silver Holds Strong

On July 3, silver stays firm above $35.40 as Fed cut bets persist. EUR/USD holds near 1.1800, while GBP/USD lingers near 1.3585 ahead of UK jobs data. JPY strengthens after BoJ signals a hawkish pause. AUD/USD slips on weak trade surplus. Focus turns to US NFP and ISM data for market direction before the US holiday break.
Moneta Markets | Před 12 dny
Dollar Rebounds, Risk FX Holds Strong | 2nd July, 2025

Dollar Rebounds, Risk FX Holds Strong | 2nd July, 2025

On July 2, the USD stabilizes as Fed rate cut bets build. GBP/USD nears 1.3750 highs, NZD/USD extends above 0.6120, and AUD/USD holds near 0.6820 despite soft retail sales. USD/JPY recovers to 146.20, while silver dips below $36. Markets await US labor data and Fed remarks for direction ahead of July 4.
Moneta Markets | Před 13 dny
WTI Slides as Geopolitical Risks Ease | 1st July, 2025

WTI Slides as Geopolitical Risks Ease | 1st July, 2025

WTI dips below $64.50 as Middle East tensions ease, dampening supply fears. Silver struggles under $36, while AUD and NZD stay muted on weak China PMI. USD/JPY steadies near 145.90, and the yen holds gains on USD weakness. Traders now eye US ISM PMI and Fed minutes for clues on policy and market direction.
Moneta Markets | Před 14 dny