Hawkish Australian Cut Helps AUD

Expert market comment made by Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: Hawkish Australian Cut Helps AUD
FxPro | Pred 134 dňami

Hawkish Australian Cut Helps AUD

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, meeting the expectations of market participants and kicking off the monetary easing cycle. The rate was last cut in November 2020, and the rate hike cycle started in May 2022.

The RBA met expectations and joined the majority of Central Banks easing policy in response to lower inflation, but the commentary sounded more hawkish than might have been expected. The decision commentary points to upside risks to inflation following a series of unexpectedly strong labour market data. Australia is thus looking to the future with caution. In simple terms, this means that we should not count on another decline: much will depend on incoming data.

This makes the Australian dollar stand out from its competitors. Neighbouring New Zealand has decreased its key rate by 125 points so far in this cycle and is expected to cut another 50 on Wednesday. Unsurprisingly, the AUDNZD pair is adding 0.65% on Tuesday, trading around highs since October 2022. The difference in monetary policy approach gives an increased chance of a break of resistance at 1.1140, opening the way to 1.15 (2022 peak).

AUDUSD is behaving more modestly, rising to 0.6350. A bottom has been forming there since the end of last year, repeating in slow motion the dynamics of October 2022. This likely is the dynamic the RBA wanted to create and maintain with its rather hawkish approach to policy. Earlier this month, the Aussie consolidated above the 50-day moving average, and now a reasonable upside momentum target looks to be the 200-day average, which is near 0.6550.

By the FxPro Analyst Team

Regulácia: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
Dollar Rebounds, Risk FX Holds Strong | 2nd July, 2025

Dollar Rebounds, Risk FX Holds Strong | 2nd July, 2025

On July 2, the USD stabilizes as Fed rate cut bets build. GBP/USD nears 1.3750 highs, NZD/USD extends above 0.6120, and AUD/USD holds near 0.6820 despite soft retail sales. USD/JPY recovers to 146.20, while silver dips below $36. Markets await US labor data and Fed remarks for direction ahead of July 4.
Moneta Markets | Pred 20 h 33 min
WTI Slides as Geopolitical Risks Ease | 1st July, 2025

WTI Slides as Geopolitical Risks Ease | 1st July, 2025

WTI dips below $64.50 as Middle East tensions ease, dampening supply fears. Silver struggles under $36, while AUD and NZD stay muted on weak China PMI. USD/JPY steadies near 145.90, and the yen holds gains on USD weakness. Traders now eye US ISM PMI and Fed minutes for clues on policy and market direction.
Moneta Markets | Pred 1 dňom
Oil Rises, Dollar Stalls as Risk Appetite Builds | 27th June, 2025

Oil Rises, Dollar Stalls as Risk Appetite Builds | 27th June, 2025

WTI crude nears $75 on strong US inventory draw, boosting risk sentiment. The US Dollar remains weak amid Fed independence fears, lifting AUD/USD to 0.6880 and EUR/USD near 1.1700. USD/JPY retreats while USD/CNY stays steady on a firmer PBOC fix. Focus shifts to US PCE data and global central bank commentary.
Moneta Markets | Pred 5 dňami
Aussie Rebounds, Dollar Dips Amid Tensions | 17th June, 2025

Aussie Rebounds, Dollar Dips Amid Tensions | 17th June, 2025

On June 17, 2025, global markets remain volatile as Israel-Iran tensions escalate into a fifth day of conflict, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, boosting WTI crude to $70.60. Gold (XAU/USD) retreats below $3,400 to $3,390, pressured by USD strength (DXY at 98.20) but supported by safe-haven demand.
Moneta Markets | Pred 15 dňami
Gold Shines, Oil Steadies Amid Tensions | 13th June, 2025

Gold Shines, Oil Steadies Amid Tensions | 13th June, 2025

On June 16, 2025, global markets are dominated by escalating Israel-Iran tensions, with Iran launching missile barrages on Israel, boosting safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates at $3,425 after hitting a two-month high, supported by Middle East risks and Fed rate-cut bets (68% for September).
Moneta Markets | Pred 16 dňami