Will 2024 be a bull market?

The crypto market is gearing up for a potential new bull market in 2024 and 2025, driven by various positive factors and trends.

Bitcoin halving in April 2023 is significant, reducing the newly minted BTC and increasing its scarcity, thus boosting its value. However, predicting events in the crypto field is challenging, and it's crucial not to view Bitcoin halving as the sole reason to invest. Unexpected situations may occur around the halving, especially considering the renewed interest from major traditional financial institutions in crypto.

BlackRock has submitted an application for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), representing a spot Bitcoin ETF. If approved, this ETF has the potential to significantly increase Bitcoin's visibility and establish it as a recognized and secure asset category, tradable and securely custodied by regulated entities, similar to regular stocks, fostering mainstream adoption.

Ethereum's shard upgrade, starting with ProtoDanksharding (EIP 4844), aims to reduce Roll-up costs by introducing 'data blocks.' If successful, these upgrades could attract a large number of new decentralized applications (dApps) to join the Ethereum platform.

A new narrative led by encrypted AI and cryptography is emerging. Integrating AI as a core feature is expected to enhance the attractiveness of platforms based on cryptography, triggering higher demand for their digital assets.

Macroeconomic recovery is anticipated as leading credit rating and financial analysis providers like S&P Global note the correlation between crypto and the macroeconomy. When central banks raise interest rates, risk assets like Bitcoin may incur losses, while during economic stimulus and low-interest periods, cryptocurrencies may see increased value. With a recession approaching, central banks might adopt loose monetary policies in 2024 or 2025, promoting employment and preventing economic collapse, potentially leading to more investments in Bitcoin as a hedge.

The FTX scandal and Celsius bankruptcy have significantly damaged the industry's reputation, prompting public concerns about the safety and legality of cryptocurrencies. Regulatory authorities are proposing stricter measures for the crypto industry, particularly in response to hacking and fraud incidents. Improvements in global regulations are expected, from the EU to Asia, and in the DeFi sector.

Considering the factors discussed and numerous other elements not mentioned, the crypto world has immense potential in 2024. Digital asset categories, represented by Bitcoin and Ethereum, could become the hottest commodities worldwide again. However, markets are inherently uncertain, and the best approach is to stay informed, be vigilant against misconduct to protect assets, and avoid irrational investments.

The potential for a new bull market in the crypto sphere in 2024 and 2025 is evident, fueled by various positive factors such as Bitcoin halving, potential ETF approvals, Ethereum upgrades, AI integration, and macroeconomic trends. However, while these factors indicate promise, it's crucial not to rely solely on events like Bitcoin halving for investment decisions. External factors, such as regulatory changes and unforeseen events like recent scandals, emphasize the need for caution, staying informed, and adopting a vigilant approach in navigating the dynamic crypto landscape.

Predicting the future of the stock market is always a challenge, but based on some indicators, I think 2024 could be a bull market year. Some of the factors that support this view are the declining interest and inflation rates, the improved GDP growth in major economies, and the strong performance of some sectors, such as technology and healthcare. Of course, there are also some risks and uncertainties, such as the geopolitical tensions, the environmental issues, and the potential policy changes. Therefore, I think investors should be cautious and diversified, but also optimistic and opportunistic.