The week started with a slight gap down opening. The weekly CFTC data is a caution for the fresh EUR bears....see below. There is a divergence appearing between the speculator net position and the EUR direction. I think its prudent to go for fresh shorting the pair once the net short position of the speculators increses from the current level.
'CFTC data suggest that speculative and CTA-type investors continued to pare back their overall exposure to the long USD trade in the week through March 3rd—even as the USD extended its overall decline. In aggregate, the IMM’s net long USD position against the major currencies dropped to USD42.4bn, the lowest bet on the USD since the Christmas week and down from the peak bull position of USD49.0bn seen in mid-January.'
'Speculative accounts trimmed net short EUR exposure for a fifth week, reducing their positions to –172.4k contracts (-177.7k last and down from a recent high point of –196.3k at the start of February). If specs are covering EUR shorts, the clear downward pressure on the EUR may be related to portfolio shifts rather than leveraged, directional positioning. With the ECB poised to start QE next week and the EUR itself falling to new cycle lows this week, spec short activity may (should) pick up.'