EUR/USD
Member Since Apr 08, 2014
1141 posts
Jan 05, 2016 at 09:19
On yesterday session the EURUSD went back and forward with a high range and closed in the red, in the middle of the daily range in addition managed to close below previous day low, suggesting a bearish momentum continues to rule.
The pair closed for the second time below 10-day moving average that is now acting as a dynamic resistance and is supported by the 50-day moving average.
The key levels to watch are: the 1.0900 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.00898 (resistance), the 1.0819 (support), the 50-day moving average at 1.0800 (support) and a Fibonacci extension at 1.0703 (support).
The pair closed for the second time below 10-day moving average that is now acting as a dynamic resistance and is supported by the 50-day moving average.
The key levels to watch are: the 1.0900 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.00898 (resistance), the 1.0819 (support), the 50-day moving average at 1.0800 (support) and a Fibonacci extension at 1.0703 (support).
"I trade to make money not to be right."
Jan 05, 2016 at 09:34
The single currency registered quite volatile start of the week on Monday. In the early hours the bulls prevailed and thus the pair reached peak for the day at 1.0945. Subsequently, however, the dollar prevailed and ultimately crossed the finish line at 1.0830. Meanwhile, the first support at 1.0795 was pierced after the currency hit bottom for the day at 1.0781. If expectations for the continuation of the negative trend justify, EUR/USD will test key level at 1.0762.
Member Since Sep 12, 2015
1948 posts
Jan 05, 2016 at 10:14
Be careful trading in this market,China is taking its toll.
"They mistook leverage with genius".
Member Since Jul 10, 2014
1117 posts
Jan 05, 2016 at 17:41
I think EUR/USD is headed for 1.0700, and should it break below that support it will likely reach 1.0600.
Member Since Jun 08, 2014
454 posts
Jan 05, 2016 at 18:11
The drop is continuing I am only worried about the support level @ 1.0735
Member Since Sep 12, 2015
1948 posts
Jan 05, 2016 at 23:28
I was watching for the change over usually around 3.45 when traders in the European session close out of positions, this morning selling off,which usually reverses at London close,missed the entry at 710.
"They mistook leverage with genius".
Jan 06, 2016 at 07:42
The single currency recorded a new drop against the dollar on Tuesday. Euro justified the negative expectations and thus plunged against the dollar for the third consecutive session. Consequently the support at 1.0795 was overcome as the pair scored bottom for the day at 1.0710. If bearish sentiment continue in the future, currencies will test key level at 1.0690. Trading on Tuesday started at a price of 1.0829. The trend was mostly bearish and the finish line was crossed at a rate of 1.0747.
Member Since Apr 08, 2014
1141 posts
Jan 06, 2016 at 09:07
On yesterday session the EURUSD fell with a high range and closed in the red, near the low of the day, in addition managed to close below previous day low, suggesting a continuation of the strong bearish momentum.
The pair closed for the first time below 50-day moving average that is now acting as a dynamic resistance.
The key levels to watch are: the 10-day moving average at 1.08768 (resistance), the 1.0819 (resistance), the 50-day moving average at 1.0800 (resistance), a Fibonacci extension at 1.0703 (support) and a daily support at 1.0622.
The pair closed for the first time below 50-day moving average that is now acting as a dynamic resistance.
The key levels to watch are: the 10-day moving average at 1.08768 (resistance), the 1.0819 (resistance), the 50-day moving average at 1.0800 (resistance), a Fibonacci extension at 1.0703 (support) and a daily support at 1.0622.
"I trade to make money not to be right."
Member Since Jul 10, 2014
1117 posts
Jan 06, 2016 at 12:16
There is a double bottom visible on the one-hour time frame, as well as two doji candlesticks above the support at 1.0710, so there will probably be a move to the upside towards 1.0780.
Member Since Jun 08, 2014
454 posts
Jan 06, 2016 at 17:34
EUR/USD is between resistance 1.0780 and 1.0735 for the moment I will be watching and waiting for the price under the support level.
Member Since Sep 12, 2015
1948 posts
Jan 06, 2016 at 17:54
My stop loss is @710,I will close out before the meeting,I'm leaning towards a stronger euro 60/40.
"They mistook leverage with genius".
Member Since Sep 12, 2015
1948 posts
Jan 06, 2016 at 19:30
I just closed out at 795,85 points from yesterday,I think it will reverse now,FOMC meeting went in my favour,just what I was expecting.
"They mistook leverage with genius".
Member Since Oct 11, 2013
775 posts
Jan 06, 2016 at 22:22
The EURUSD is still in a bearish mode, regardless of today's pullback to the 1.0800 level. The pair may consolidate for a while and wait for the NFP report.
Member Since Oct 08, 2011
137 posts
Jan 06, 2016 at 22:48
EUR/USD entry signals
I do not forecast markets, nor do I predict trend directions.
I read price-bar formations which give entry signals when they are present.
There are major and minor entry signals which determine the risk to be taken on a trade (lot size) as well as how the SL is to be managed.
Monthly chart:
Of the last 4 price bars, 3 consecutive bars were in the same (down) trend (open was higher than close price)
The most recent finished bar (December) points in the opposite direction, therefore is a trend reversal (open low and close price is higher). the December bar is also an outside bar (lower low and higher high than the preceding (November) bar.
The rule:
if there are at least 3 bars in the same trend (in this case open high close low) followed by a reversal bar, the high of the reversal bar (in this scenario) is a MINOR entry signal.
Place a buy-stop entry 1 pip above the high (ASK price) of the December bar.
Place the SL at least 4 pips below the low of the same bar.
Place the TP below the 1st reverse-hook, which on your chart is 1.1494
The current bar is Nr. 11 in consolidation which started with the March bar of last year.
All following bars since March have either the open or the close (or both) INSIDE the high and low of the March bar.
A consolidation can not contain more than 10 bars, meaning that Nr. 11 is the last bar that can be traded / according to the rules.
Weekly chart:
The weekly chart shows a price consolidation with currently 6 bars.
As I have written before, the 6th bar in consolidation is the most difficult to trade and should be avoided.
There are 3 legitimate MAJOR entry signals visible.
Buy-stop at the high from last week (1.0991 on our chart) plus 1 pip (ASK price)
Buy-stop at the high from 3 weeks ago (1.1058 on our chart) plus 1 pip (ASK price)
The low of 5 weeks ago is also a legitimate MAJOR entry signal as it is a down-hook. (1.0515 minus 1 pip BID price)
Daily chart:
The daily chart is in a trading range with the current bar being Nr. 24
The long bar that was formed on Dec. 3rd is the measuring bar (MB), because all following bars have either the open or close price (or both) inside the high and low of the MB.
Trading out of a range is done by counting 3 sections, which usually start with a double/top or double bottom.
In this case, there is only 1 double/top that is followed by 3 sections, which makes the low of Tuesday (1.0709 minus 1 pip BID price) a legitimate MAJOR entry signal.
If prices do not break through this low, then there should be buy-stop entries formed in the next few days which I will post when they are completed.
In the meantime, the entries from the weekly charts can be traded, which will be very similar to what could possibly be traded on the daily charts.
All price bar formation rules are valid in all timeframes.
Take a close look at consolidations, congestions and trading ranges on intraday charts, like the 30 or 60 minute charts or even the 5 minute charts.
You will find that the same formations occur on these time frames as well.
Trade what you see on the charts and NOT what you (or others) think.
If you strictly follow these rules you will realize that trading can be made quite easy.
I do not forecast markets, nor do I predict trend directions.
I read price-bar formations which give entry signals when they are present.
There are major and minor entry signals which determine the risk to be taken on a trade (lot size) as well as how the SL is to be managed.
Monthly chart:
Of the last 4 price bars, 3 consecutive bars were in the same (down) trend (open was higher than close price)
The most recent finished bar (December) points in the opposite direction, therefore is a trend reversal (open low and close price is higher). the December bar is also an outside bar (lower low and higher high than the preceding (November) bar.
The rule:
if there are at least 3 bars in the same trend (in this case open high close low) followed by a reversal bar, the high of the reversal bar (in this scenario) is a MINOR entry signal.
Place a buy-stop entry 1 pip above the high (ASK price) of the December bar.
Place the SL at least 4 pips below the low of the same bar.
Place the TP below the 1st reverse-hook, which on your chart is 1.1494
The current bar is Nr. 11 in consolidation which started with the March bar of last year.
All following bars since March have either the open or the close (or both) INSIDE the high and low of the March bar.
A consolidation can not contain more than 10 bars, meaning that Nr. 11 is the last bar that can be traded / according to the rules.
Weekly chart:
The weekly chart shows a price consolidation with currently 6 bars.
As I have written before, the 6th bar in consolidation is the most difficult to trade and should be avoided.
There are 3 legitimate MAJOR entry signals visible.
Buy-stop at the high from last week (1.0991 on our chart) plus 1 pip (ASK price)
Buy-stop at the high from 3 weeks ago (1.1058 on our chart) plus 1 pip (ASK price)
The low of 5 weeks ago is also a legitimate MAJOR entry signal as it is a down-hook. (1.0515 minus 1 pip BID price)
Daily chart:
The daily chart is in a trading range with the current bar being Nr. 24
The long bar that was formed on Dec. 3rd is the measuring bar (MB), because all following bars have either the open or close price (or both) inside the high and low of the MB.
Trading out of a range is done by counting 3 sections, which usually start with a double/top or double bottom.
In this case, there is only 1 double/top that is followed by 3 sections, which makes the low of Tuesday (1.0709 minus 1 pip BID price) a legitimate MAJOR entry signal.
If prices do not break through this low, then there should be buy-stop entries formed in the next few days which I will post when they are completed.
In the meantime, the entries from the weekly charts can be traded, which will be very similar to what could possibly be traded on the daily charts.
All price bar formation rules are valid in all timeframes.
Take a close look at consolidations, congestions and trading ranges on intraday charts, like the 30 or 60 minute charts or even the 5 minute charts.
You will find that the same formations occur on these time frames as well.
Trade what you see on the charts and NOT what you (or others) think.
If you strictly follow these rules you will realize that trading can be made quite easy.
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
forex_trader_29148
Member Since Feb 11, 2011
1916 posts
Jan 06, 2016 at 23:06
thanks for your simplicity
Jan 07, 2016 at 08:21
The euro recovered some of the losses against the US dollar on Wednesday. The single currency broke the three-day negative series and gain some advantage over the dollar. The increase was not significant and so the pair still remains far from the level of the first resistance at 1.1003. Short-term expectations remain in favor of the euro. Wednesday session started at a price of 1.0747 and ended only with 32 pips higher. A significant increase was registered at the end of trading when was reached the peak for the day at 1.0798.
