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victoriajensen
Jun 16 2016 at 16:05
1117 posts
csc2009 posted:
victoriajensen posted:
EUR/USD has risen with only about 40 pips all day because everyone are waiting for the FOMC statement which is coming out in less than two hours.

The pair has been rejected from 1.13 level despite Fed decision to stay on hold at its June meeting and back to it's usual range.

 Indeed, now it's back to testing the support at 1.1130. If it breaks below that level it will likely reach 1.1050.
csc2009
Jun 16 2016 at 23:44
834 posts
The pair made sharp U-turn yesterday, the price back to near its opening price with unclear reason. Immediate resistance is still at 1.1300 level, ranging between 1.13 to 1.1130.
FXWES
Jun 17 2016 at 05:14
675 posts
The single currency recorded a slight decrease against the US dollar on Thursday. The session started at 1.1258 and ended 34 pips lower. On downwards first support is located at 1.1100. Resistance is located at 1.1286.
PERPETUUMMOBILE (PERPETUUMMOBILE)
Jun 17 2016 at 06:25
137 posts
csc2009 posted:
The pair made sharp U-turn yesterday, the price back to near its opening price with unclear reason. Immediate resistance is still at 1.1300 level, ranging between 1.13 to 1.1130.

In my previous postings I have explained how consolidations, congestions and trading ranges work.
consolidation = 5 to 10 bars
congestion = 11 to 20 bars
trading range = 21 to 29 bars

all of the above have a so called 'measuring bar' (MB)
a MB is a bar, where all following bars have either the open price or the close price or both within the high and low of the MB.
when counting bars, the MB needs to be included.

Monthly chart - currently 14 bars
Weekly chart - currently 12 bars
Daily chart - currently 11 bars

on either one of the above mentioned time frames, count the bars back in history, and you will find the MB

Yesterday, prices broke out to the low side, just 20 pips below the low of the MB on the weekly chart (and only about 5 pips below the low of the MB on the daily chart!), then traded back to the middle of the MB on the weekly (as well as the middle of the MB on the daily).

Best way to trade these congestions is on a faster time frame and stay within the confines of the MB
IT HARDLY EVERY FAILS!

But - one must be aware of the situation!
That's why it is extremely important to know how consolidations/congestions/trading ranges work and how they can be traded.
Because 90% of the time, prices are in one or the other, in any given time frame!

Conclusion... there was a VERY GOOD REASON why prices made a 'sharp u-turn' yesterday!
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
stian
Jun 17 2016 at 07:08
325 posts
csc2009 posted:
with unclear reason.
Cox got murdered, brexit campaign suspended.
Balaaue86
Jun 17 2016 at 07:31
2 posts
please suggest me my by order is in 1.12600 can i close that or market moves up .... how many pips it moves in upside .....
fxtrader2014
Jun 17 2016 at 07:51
61 posts
thankyou all guy any one help me some indictor to find trend some time market revese so i am made wrong trade any indictor like i know some idea if market resves
PERPETUUMMOBILE (PERPETUUMMOBILE)
Jun 17 2016 at 08:14
137 posts
Balaaue86 posted:
please suggest me my by order is in 1.12600 can i close that or market moves up .... how many pips it moves in upside .....

The 4 hr chart is in congestion, currently on bar nr. 6 (worst bar to trade)
The 1 hr chart is in congestion, currently on bar nr. 10 (last bar to trade out of consolidation)

With a little luck, prices may trade to near 1.1300 in the next few hours.

Important question of course is... WHERE IS YOUR STOP placed?

Many trades trade without a stop... don't do it.
The stop/loss is the most important aspect in trading!
Without it, you are 'hoping'
And hope is one of the emotions one should not trade with!

Hope, greed, fear, anger and pride are a trader's worst enemies.
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
PERPETUUMMOBILE (PERPETUUMMOBILE)
Jun 17 2016 at 12:18
137 posts
EURUSD / 1 hr chart.

The current bar is bar nr. 14.
count 14 bars back and you'll find the MB.

If you are in a trade too soon, often bars 13 & 14 offer a chance to close a losing position with very little or no damage.
Sometimes even with a small profit.

First bar we trade out of congestion is bar nr. 17.
Best bars to trade out of a range is a bar between 21 and 29.
Often a doji bar is the first indication of the nearing end of the trading range.

If a congestion breaks before the 17th bar, then wait for the first hook aber the break.
It is the safest way to open a position.


The price bar formation rules have to be strictly followed.
This discipline completely eliminates any guessing and emotions.


"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
PERPETUUMMOBILE (PERPETUUMMOBILE)
Jun 17 2016 at 15:08
137 posts
EURUSD / 1 hr chart update

it is important to notice, that the fake-break occurred on bar nr. 16, which is not a tradable bar according to the price bar formation rules.
Prices quickly turned and the bar closed right in the middle of the MB.
 
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
victoriajensen
Jun 17 2016 at 15:29
1117 posts



The pair is clearly bouncing off the trendline, which is what happened this week too. Next week is Brexit, we will likely see some major changes in this chart come 23rd.

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Silk
Jun 18 2016 at 16:58
41 posts
yesterday I deposited $1000 and bought EUR/USD I lost all my money, how much other guys are trading and how many currency pairs buying per day, and how much profit getting, are you using any EA or indicator please
Silk
Jun 18 2016 at 16:59
41 posts
Dear what Bar you are mentioning?
Silk
Jun 18 2016 at 16:59
41 posts
on 23rd June Eur/Usd will go up or down
Check Mate
CheckMate3
Jun 18 2016 at 17:19
24 posts
I'm looking for a sell off late next week in eurusd because of my cycle analysis.
deresel
Jun 19 2016 at 09:14
708 posts
Sentiment on the dollar remained fragile after on Thursday the US Department of Labor said the number of initial applications for benefits for a week of unemployment ending June 11 increased by 13,000 to 277,000.
deresel
Jun 19 2016 at 09:20
708 posts
On Friday the dollar weakened against the major currencies, as the Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged and lowered its growth forecasts for interest rates in the next few years.
The EUR/USD rose 0.45% to 1.1277.
deresel
Jun 19 2016 at 09:37
708 posts
My levels of support and resistance remain:
Support: 1.1100;
Resistance: 1.1286; 1.1450; 1.1630.




Attachments:

idimitrov
Jun 19 2016 at 09:48
421 posts
On Friday, the dollar fell against the euro, but remained stable at 22-month lows against the yen, as the pessimistic reports in the US, as well as decisions of the Federal Reserve System and the Bank of Japan to leave monetary policy unchanged is still putting pressure on the US currency.
idimitrov
Jun 19 2016 at 09:48
421 posts
In addition, the US Commerce Department reported that consumer prices rose 0.2%, while expected to grow by 0.3% in May. In annual terms, consumer prices rose 1.0% last month, which was below forecasts growth of 1.1%.
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