What you mean by fundamentals? Plainly who's go better numbers, or much more? I try to think of a market as a whole, liten to the news [not all of them], but any single news release was never a reason for me to 'change my mind', however sometimes I try to estimate what reaction to the news will be and have some good result with this, but never made a trading strategy out of that...
The fundament is what is moving the market, then technic to find better entries and exits :)
Fundamental trading is a bit tricky as very often a trader with small experience could take wrong decision. About the news trading - not so many brokers are willing to accept toxic flow (post news trading :) via software as auto-clickers (lower stage) up to FIX API connection to the Liquidity Pools via Prime Broker (higher stage). Nevertheless in the second type of connectivity and solid order sizes, even the banks starts to complains :)
I don't want to seem obtrusive, but you chose the hard way if you chose a fundamental trade. Firstly, these are long-term transactions where patience is required. Secondly, the news can sometimes be unpredictable. But, in any case, the greater the risk, the greater your profit. In addition, it is worth having a good knowledge in the field of economics. In general, someday I will also be experienced enough and enjoy fundamental analysis:)
Just apply common sense when considering the fundamentals. Most of the work is done for you within a central bank's policy statement, such as intention to tighten or loosen monetary policy. For example, here's a snapshot of Russia's central bank statement:
'Russia's central bank lowered its key monetary policy rate for the sixth time this year on easing risks to inflation from the recent agreement to extend oil output cuts and said it was open to further cuts in the first half of next year, depending on inflation. The Bank of Russia cut its rate by 50 basis points to 7.75 percent and has now cut it by 225 basis points this year. This follows cuts of 100 basis points in 2016 and 600 points in 2015 as it steadily lowers the rate from a high of 17.0 percent in December 2014 when rates was hiked in the wake of a plunge in the ruble following the conflict in Ukraine. 'The Bank of Russia will continue its gradual transition from moderately tight to neutral monetary policy and holds open the prospect of some key rate reduction in the first half of 2018,' the central bank said.'
So, applying a little common sense, falling interest rates indicate a decline in the currency. If trading the USDRUB, and given that the Fed plans to raise rates, you could most likely expect to see the Ruble decline against the USD. Now apply technical indicators to time potential market entries.
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