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With the general election approaching, how will gold go this week?
jinchenghao

Member Since Aug 19, 2020  6 posts jinchenghao (jinchenghao) Oct 26 at 16:47
Gold come inventory was 10459.98 tons on August 5 and 11828.21 tons as of last week.



Some people may not be very clear about this. In general, the increase in inventory of goods often means overcapacity, and the demand does not consume the commodity in time. At the same time, the price of the commodity may fall.

However, in the gold market, the opposite is true, but it is not absolute. Some elite should not lift the bar. Point your face. The increase of gold stock often means that the price will rise; conversely, the decrease of gold stock also means the price will decrease.

More generally speaking, in addition to keeping the delivery bars of futures contracts, Comex warehouse only regards them as ordinary warehouses.



In short, the higher the price, the more willing people are to hold gold, and the more gold investors will store in warehouses.

This should make it clear.

........................

in summary:

Prediction of the future trend of gold and silver: (since it is a prediction, it may be wrong. During the general election, there are many black swans and a single moth)

1. The market is waiting for the opportunity, or in a wait-and-see state. The market dare not launch a large attack at will, that is, you push me, I push you. This is the current state of gold and silver pulling back and forth.

2. The stimulus bill has touched the hearts of many investors. It is certain that it will come out. It is nothing but a matter before and after the election. After coming out, the US dollar is bound to remain weak and volatile. Of course, if there is a short-term risk aversion mood during the election, the dollar will be favored, and a small rebound is normal. Anyway, we have reached a consensus on the issue of long-term weakness.

The stimulus bill will still highlight the future of gold. The U.S. deficit is soaring, plus the next two trillion, nearly 28 trillion in debt. In the future, we will use financial means to gradually transfer and digest debts.

3. In the two days before and after November 3, if there is a risk aversion event in the general election, the risk sentiment will be suppressed, and the stock market will sell off, then gold will not play a safe haven role. It will be more manifested as a commodity attribute and will follow the decline.

But it's also a good time to buy.

4. In recent ten years, the yield of US Treasury bonds has risen, and the stimulus bill has not come out, which has also lowered inflation expectations in the short term. Therefore, the momentum of gold's rise or bull's will will will not be very strong.

But it's only temporary.

5, asset prices such as commodities in the future will be substantially pushed up, and finally form a huge bubble. Then, until the real recovery of the US economy to the level before the epidemic, the capital will eventually be cut through the bubble and the final harvest will be completed.

Generally speaking, judging from the data, there is still a lack of sentiment and an opportunity for funds to flow out of the U.S. stock market to the precious metal market. If gold and silver want to soar, we must have incremental funds to promote it. Combined with the emotion, gold $2500 per ounce and Silver $40-50 US dollars per ounce must not be a dream!

In the future, we should pay more attention to the change of gold and silver long short positions, especially the situation of big contrast and opposition. The general trend will come soon. The basic wave is 200-300 US dollars unilateral.

Leaving aside the technical and fundamental aspects, long-term tracking and observation of data is very necessary! Both bullish and bearish data have their own logic

风控是交易的基础!
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