I want only a safe 4% each month... Which EA?? Thank you

Nov 02, 2012 at 10:42
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1,238 Replies
Member Since Aug 30, 2013   325 posts
Apr 14, 2014 at 15:48 (edited Apr 14, 2014 at 15:51)
eramar89 posted:
thank you so much so simple step and it updated my account since march thank you 😀
glimpse of my account 4-10% monthly
 https://www.myfxbook.com/members/eramar89/eramar89/712694

You are a huge risk...consider what you did in the US Yen where you placed several trades that were 50% of your account size. It's a matter of time before you go KABOOM! Not even worth wasting my time sorry to say. You must be a rookie!
By the way it's not Drag Down it's Draw Down.
Member Since Dec 29, 2013   41 posts
Apr 14, 2014 at 19:02
Bob, you must be wealthy guy. Capital must be substantial in order to be satisfied with 2%.
As I am of hungry type I definitely need more. Especially that I have no funds to speak about of and been trading TST Combines to get funded. To get funded with say $50K account trader has to make 7% in 20 trading days with lots of limit reducing parameters and rules not to be broken and also trailing equity stop to add some spice.
I did made it this month. 7% on $50K with $60 max DD but was not able to meet target for some 6 months which says it is not easy to make with proper risk control and size.

I would say 4-5% monthly would definitely satisfy me.
As I am trading futures I find it risky to have EA trading unless trader watches markets at all times and especially leaving EA to run things with trades overnight.... limit up/ down move can really hurt.
Plus market behavior changes like weather.

But if you have enough funds by all means 2% is nice.

I also enjoy trading and my trading hours are limited some 2-2 1/2 hours daily so it is not a pressure on me. Especially that I hate beaches.

ForexAssistant posted:
'No EA can be successful long term left as is.'

I guess I would have to ask what is 'long term'.

'Market changes and it might change on a dime within just 1 day.'

Possible but if your money management system is in place, any losses will be negligible. Still any actively traded account will do better than a fully automated one, unless better means that you add in all the other benefits of dancing on the beach in the evenings and lazy walks through the markada as apposed to working for a living. Traders should make more they are after all working for it. I am retired, well almost retired. Anyway, I am not going to use my limited time on this Earth doing something that a robot could do and with less stress.

I mean I can make 2% a month without working and about 5% a month by actively trading all month, so I am only making 3% a month for my labor and time. ? Not real appealing to me but if you're hungry, then actively trading can get your portfolio big enough where 2% can take care of all your needs, for now. Needs change fast than the markets do, but a portfolio of $250,000 at 2% a month is $5,000 a month, I can live with that.

Still there is always improvements and you will want to keep up with the changes, both markets and trading options over time but that brings us back to the question, how long is 'long term'?

Bob
Member Since Jun 28, 2011   465 posts
Apr 14, 2014 at 20:43
Getting a higher return is easy, getting a higher return while maintaining a safe risk level, that's what is hard. It's not that it isn't doable, there was that one trader that was using hedging to reduce risk, had 9 pages of open trades which made my head swim but the hedging seems to work. As I showed, I can get 4% with the P-I-G and still be safe but I can also get 2% a month and be even safer.

Every place on all of these forums we see trader carrying the banner of high profits, above 4% a month, 4-10% a month... So what, it is meaningless without also applying some correlation to the risk required to get these large returns.

This is a well establish concept in the older markets but one which evidently needs revisited in the forex world.

Let's use stocks to explain our problems so we don't get too close to anything anyone is doing. Lets say we have $50,000 to invest and someone said that we should invest in penny stocks, and buy 50 different ones putting $1000 into each of the fifty at $0.25 per share. With 50 penny stocks in our portfolio one is bound to take off to $2.50 a share. 1000% return on profits. Wow, at 4000 shares ($1000/$0.25) we have 4000 X $2.50 = $10,000

Oh boy, with a 1000% profit I don't know if I made money or lost it because we don't know what happened to the other $40,000. If they all kept their value then no problem our portfolio grew by 20% but if half of those other companies went out of business then instead of making $10,000 our risk was too high and we lost $10,000.

Percentage of profit without some measure of what risk is involved, is meaningless and inherently dangerous to the poorly informed. And we have the tools to show some relationship, like the profit factor and the Sharp ratio. Of course I realize that they are not able to properly evaluate risk for all types of trading, like a profit factor of 3897.28 is so large it hardly makes sense. So does that mean that there is no chance of loss with this system? that is so stupid, it's not worth discussion but it is an indicator as to a relevant safety factor as it is applied to the profit percentages.

I would like to recommend that we ask managers posts to include something like

name : RISE
Yearly profit percentage : 12%
Sharp ratio : 3.78
Profit Factor : 3897.28
Trading Stryle : Systemic / fully automated robotic.
Limitations : Not usable on US brokers - designed primarily for investors and as a safer addition to balance traders holdings.
Additional Information : https://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/rise-audcad/578913 Representing 13 months.

I think that is pretty inclusive and an obvious invitation to any that might be interested without bogging down the conversation and tell the would be investors something real without make everyone have to dig out the facts.

Just my 2% worth.

Bob



where research touches lives.
Member Since May 04, 2012   1608 posts
Apr 14, 2014 at 20:56

I would add the following to the above strategy description:

Monthly Profit: 0.93%
Max. DD: 9.46% -- In other words it takes 10 (i.e. TEN) months (statistically) to recover from a max. DD scenario (like the current one).

Also, it might be also interesting that the named strategy is in constant DD since the end of January, including open positions since January 8th, 2014. Although not pretty, I guess these details add some more valuable information.
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Member Since Feb 05, 2010   13 posts
Apr 14, 2014 at 21:12
This system has reliably produced 3% - 5%/mo with very controlled DD:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/AxxiomTrading/axxiom-evaxa-fund/891826

See long-term history here: https://bit.ly/1fnuNAK
Member Since May 04, 2012   1608 posts
Apr 14, 2014 at 21:21
Yes, it is nice, however, it is unfortunate that only 3 months' history is verified.
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Member Since Aug 30, 2013   325 posts
Apr 14, 2014 at 22:28 (edited Apr 14, 2014 at 22:39)
AxxiomTrading posted:
This system has reliably produced 3% - 5%/mo with very controlled DD:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/AxxiomTrading/axxiom-evaxa-fund/891826

See long-term history here: https://bit.ly/1fnuNAK


Nice? lol far from it. There is a reason why he only has 3 months worth of testing... statistics show that he is piling up the lot size to recover i.e in due time and slowly it will capitulate not to mention a very small profit factor as well as losses are on average bigger than wins. Hence why only a handful of trades.
I forgot to mention so far his max DD is 18 which is far bigger then any profitable month. The only thing is his favour is trading small lot size to try and recover losses this might help him stay afloat for a good period of time.
Good luck and when you've blown FxMasterGurus' money I will be the first to blow the trumpet.
Member Since Jun 28, 2011   465 posts
Apr 14, 2014 at 23:05
@FxMasterGuru
No, all of that is available in the added information, that's where you got it I believe, so nothing is hidden. Some people understand the difference between systemic trading systems (a subset of fundamental trading) and technical systems. Technical traders had better pay attention to draw down, where its not so important with systemic systems because I can tell you what the draw down will be for any price. It's all mathematical. But if you don't know that then the dd will scare you away and you will stay with the technical systems that you're comfortable with. I will of course help the ones that ask me to explain it to them.

See you looked at the fact that the system was always in draw down, (and it is always in draw down, that is how it works), and assumed that this must be a problem instead of something new that has never been accomplished before. Over 3000 trades with one loss for 8 cents, is not some kind of a fluke and yet, some would rather miss the fact that something is different here and look at what they don't understand which makes them run away. I understand this completely. I wish there was something that I could do to instill logic in an emotional world but in this case, I have reached the boundaries of my limitation, I can not do this. And I think it may even be wrong to try.

@HolyCow 'Bob, you must be wealthy guy. Capital must be substantial in order to be satisfied with 2%'

Hardly, My wife is still working and everything that I do goes right back into the investments. Our first goal is $250,000 but we're not there yet. But 2% isn't all that shabby, if a waitress took $250 for investments a month for ten years at 2%, she would be able to then take out $2,000 for the rest of her life. If she waited 5 more years, before withdrawing any funds, she would have $5,000 a month. 2% and time is a powerful alley. But actively trading an account is still faster, no question.

Note: the systems discussed in the top portion of this post is a different system than the bottom part to HolyCow.

Bob
where research touches lives.
Member Since Feb 05, 2010   13 posts
Apr 15, 2014 at 01:45

RE: EVAXA Fund - https://www.myfxbook.com/members/AxxiomTrading/axxiom-evaxa-fund/891826

FXMasterGuru - the system only recently started trading on an MT4 account - hence the short myfxbook record. (Most institutional traders wont trade on MT4).

I have for your (and any other interested party) due diligence, 18 months of broker statements for this manager.

Let me know your interest.
Member Since Aug 30, 2013   325 posts
Apr 15, 2014 at 06:36 (edited Apr 15, 2014 at 06:39)
AxxiomTrading posted:

RE: EVAXA Fund - https://www.myfxbook.com/members/AxxiomTrading/axxiom-evaxa-fund/891826

FXMasterGuru - the system only recently started trading on an MT4 account - hence the short myfxbook record. (Most institutional traders wont trade on MT4).

I have for your (and any other interested party) due diligence, 18 months of broker statements for this manager.

Let me know your interest.

So you've come here to show us rubbish and claim you have longer term trading of a better system because lets face it if it were the same you could easily show us longer trading periods of the system you tried to con us into...so does that mean we are supposed to trust and believe everything you say right even though you a scum and scammer want to trade i.e lose other peoples money rather than trade millions of your own which you don't have because your nothing but a failure in life and in forex and can't make more millions except from scamming people, yes?
Can you see how stupid you are looking now? Or shall I shred more of you and your pathetic one day wonder system?
I recall not long ago you were trying to con people on here to use other crappy systems you had fool only to blow up their accounts. Do correct me if I'm wrong...but last time I was wrong was just before birth.
Member Since May 04, 2012   1608 posts
Apr 15, 2014 at 11:21
ForexAssistant posted:
@FxMasterGuru
No, all of that is available in the added information, that's where you got it I believe, so nothing is hidden. Some people understand the difference between systemic trading systems (a subset of fundamental trading) and technical systems. Technical traders had better pay attention to draw down, where its not so important with systemic systems because I can tell you what the draw down will be for any price. It's all mathematical. But if you don't know that then the dd will scare you away and you will stay with the technical systems that you're comfortable with. I will of course help the ones that ask me to explain it to them.

See you looked at the fact that the system was always in draw down, (and it is always in draw down, that is how it works), and assumed that this must be a problem instead of something new that has never been accomplished before. Over 3000 trades with one loss for 8 cents, is not some kind of a fluke and yet, some would rather miss the fact that something is different here and look at what they don't understand which makes them run away. I understand this completely. I wish there was something that I could do to instill logic in an emotional world but in this case, I have reached the boundaries of my limitation, I can not do this. And I think it may even be wrong to try.

@ForexAssistant

Well, Bob, I have to admit, it is too 'high' for me to comprehend, especially this sentence: 'it is always in draw down, that is how it works'.

Wow...! Why have I never thought of becoming a successful trader with a strategy which produces constant profits while it is in eternal DD....??
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Member Since Jun 28, 2011   465 posts
Apr 15, 2014 at 18:45
Why have I never thought of becoming a successful trader with a strategy which produces constant profits while it is in eternal DD....??

Mathematicians think somewhat differently than other professions. We let the numbers guide us, but if you really do want to know how it works, the logic that makes it tic, it's all in the book Robotic Investing. I have nothing to hide so go ahead and read how I pulled it off. I am rather proud of my accomplishments and when a knowledgeable trader such as yourself asks, why he did think of it, even if it's in sarcasm, I get a sense of pride that I was able to do what I did.

Think like a technical trader and you will never appreciate how a system can never lose while staying in a constant state of draw-down, and why it doesn't use stop-loss, how it trades against the trend. All things that make technical traders run for the door. But, it's perfectly OK, you are not my target audience. You will make more money than I will, but I have greater safety and freedom, that is important to me too. My audience is the 7 million people wanting to be able to quit work. I won't make them rich but I can help them retire. And that makes me feel pretty good about myself too.

However, you will make more money with your system than mine. The one that is in constant draw-down (RISE) only makes 12% a year. I would be greatly surprised if that impressed you. But for someone making 3% on bonds and stock dividends, 12% is awesome.

Anyway thank you for giving me the opportunity to discuss these new systems with you, your feed back is welcomed and appreciated. And I am glad that you didn't think of trading systemicly, because it doesn't make much sense to work in a research company that just mimics what others do. Kind of pointless, if you know what I mean.

Bob
where research touches lives.
SwissManagement
forex_trader_150670
Member Since Sep 12, 2013   110 posts
Apr 15, 2014 at 18:59
Hi,

If you want to earn some money, you can follow me on Zulutrade. I'm on Zulutrade since 29 weeks.
My profit factor is 4
My total profit is 4300 pips
My best trade is 1800 pips
My worst trade is 400 pips
My drawdown is only 19%

All months i earned some pips. No negative month. Try me with demo account and you will see i'm serious trader.

You can find me on zulutrade with this name : 'SwissManagement' or with this link : https://www.zulutrade.com/trader/183833

If you have any question ask me.

Regards
Member Since May 04, 2012   1608 posts
Apr 15, 2014 at 20:19
@ForexAssistant

You may be right, Bob. And I do hope that those 7 million people trust their monies on your 'in eternal DD' strategy producing 12% per year on balance, as long as the equity is not eaten up by the DD. Which CAN happen theoretically, can't it?

And then, all the years' of 12% per year profits evaporate - almost literally - preceded by a Margin Call from the broker. Of course, unless you feed the beast in the DD instead of taking money from it.

I wonder if anybody else in this blog is sold on this idea, or is it only me who cannot see the great opportunity in it...
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Member Since Aug 30, 2013   325 posts
Apr 15, 2014 at 20:32 (edited Apr 15, 2014 at 20:36)
SwissManagement posted:
Hi,

If you want to earn some money, you can follow me on Zulutrade. I'm on Zulutrade since 29 weeks.
My profit factor is 4
My total profit is 4300 pips
My best trade is 1800 pips
My worst trade is 400 pips
My drawdown is only 19%

All months i earned some pips. No negative month. Try me with demo account and you will see i'm serious trader.

You can find me on zulutrade with this name : 'SwissManagement' or with this link : https://www.zulutrade.com/trader/183833

If you have any question ask me.

Regards

Swiss was promoting his rubbish last year and now he has blown everything on all old accounts, am I right or you still have those one year old accounts and older?
I noticed you are promoting new systems now and still trying to throw more rubbish at investors.
You will never learn that your a waste of everything, time effort, money and I wouldn't say brains because you have none lol.
Produce your very old accounts and show everyone how they went KABOOM.
Member Since Jun 28, 2011   465 posts
Apr 15, 2014 at 22:49
@FxMasterGuru
You know fear of what is possible almost kept me from ever releasing the program. I made it for me and my family but the thought that I could hurt someone by accident was paralyzing. My wife finally pushed me to do it. She ask me what could happen to make it happen as you suggested and the dd grow larger than the account. I told her that just one thing would not do it, but if we had a currency collapse and a malfunction of the program so the system was not hedged when the price went further out than it had ever gone before, because it was collapsing, and no one seen it coming, then we could have a margin call. The probabilities of that chain of events happening are extremely small, approaching zero, so she convinced me and I agree to let her sell the programs.

But the thought that someone could get hurt from something that I did, even if it was a fluke, would be devastating. I balance that with, if everything works as it was designed to and I hadn't allow others to use it, I would be hurting people without their knowing about it. It's a moral dilemma. A little hard to quantify. So we recommend that investors begin to diversify into other systems instead of trusting everything to one system, no matter how good, and also into other brokers and even into other markets.

Good chatting with you,

Bob
where research touches lives.
Member Since Feb 05, 2010   13 posts
Apr 16, 2014 at 05:33


RE: EVAXA Fund - https://www.myfxbook.com/members/AxxiomTrading/axxiom-evaxa-fund/891826

FXMasterGuru - the system only recently started trading on an MT4 account - hence the short myfxbook record. (Most institutional traders wont trade on MT4).

I have for your (and any other interested party) due diligence, 18 months of broker statements for this manager.

Let me know your interest.
forex_trader_136673
Member Since Jun 28, 2013   852 posts
Apr 16, 2014 at 06:47
forexpipcatcha posted:

Swiss was promoting his rubbish last year and now he has blown everything on all old accounts, am I right or you still have those one year old accounts and older?
I noticed you are promoting new systems now and still trying to throw more rubbish at investors.
You will never learn that your a waste of everything, time effort, money and I wouldn't say brains because you have none lol.
Produce your very old accounts and show everyone how they went KABOOM.

I have those accounts. First account is deleted form myfxbook and second is not updated. They are both blow.

[Links Removed]

@SwissManagement you should be ashamed scamming people.
Member Since Mar 01, 2013   51 posts
Apr 16, 2014 at 07:00
ForexAssistant posted:
@FxMasterGuru
 The probabilities of that chain of events happening are extremely small, approaching zero


the more time passes, the odds grow increasingly worse that you will get a margin call. so its not approaching zero, the opposite is true it seems - approaching infinity.
Member Since May 04, 2012   1608 posts
Apr 16, 2014 at 07:36 (edited Apr 16, 2014 at 07:37)
c3po posted:
ForexAssistant posted:
@FxMasterGuru
 The probabilities of that chain of events happening are extremely small, approaching zero


the more time passes, the odds grow increasingly worse that you will get a margin call. so its not approaching zero, the opposite is true it seems - approaching infinity.

Good point! Yes, the chances of crashing a Martingale account
within 1 minutes: practically 0%
within 5 minutes: again close to zero
within 1 day: very unlikely, but definitely higher than within 5 minutes...
within 1 week: about 0.1%
within 1 month: maybe 1%
within 6 months: approx. 20%
within 1 year: let's say 60%
And so on...

The bottom line is that as time goes by, the chances of crashing an account without stop loss (i.e. which is in 'eternal DD') are getting higher and higher, so at one point the 'eternal dradown' has to meet the Margin Call, the same as parallels meet in the infinity. Unless one has 'eternal reserves' and a daytime job (or a government pension) the fund such an account before it is liquidated by the broker.

P.S. But even banks don't have eternal reserves to feed such a trading strategy forever. One Swiss bank even went bankrupt within a few years while trading against the never ending strengthening of Swiss Franc. Also, millions of real estate foreclosure in Europe on Swiss Franc based mortgages because of the 'never seen' (but here it is) strengthening of the Swiss Frank. I can almost hear as lending bank advisors told their clients that the chance of such a scenario is 'almost zero'. Well, within 10 years millions of people have lost their homes and all their life savings in Europe just because they believed in the 'almost zero'.
(https://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/what-happened-to-all-those-swiss-franc-mortgages-in-hungarycypruscroatia-and-poland/)

@ForexAssistant

It is good that you see the ABYSS under the strategy, and if you base your 12% per year retirement fund on it, I hope you sleep well. The other 7 million need a sleeping pill for sure...
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