"Just Oil"

   minosd777 posted:
   

I did not get it but what I meant is that each tarde is separate and is managed separately and I do not close one trade to close loss of another trade cause any running trade can be a big winner. say if aud/jpy gets to 87.00-88.00 level again I would get 4-4.5% on this running position and if gbp/aud gets another 400 pips it would be 1.5-1.6% on remaining position.

That's I think what most traders do: they have a few very big winning positions in the year 'cause they managed it good and let the profits run in their favor, on the other hand they can have a mirriad of failed trades which are all stopped out. So finding these big potential winners is of key importance, otherwise nobody can be in profit, only the best can have a 60% winning rate of closed trades (and I don't count the scalpers).

Yes, for this however I need to keep some substantial chunk of my original position running like with Aud/Jpoy but Gbp/Aud it is a leftover. still money.
From my perspective, I probably around 50% hit rate on this if no more. Last even was news induced, but before that I had only 1 real loser which went to my stop loss. usd/jpy. the rest 'losers' I just closed myself my stops were not hit.
So, I think if I manage trades properly I can compensate for losers many times over.

gbp/aud is breaking support and if my experience counts, after such long consolidation support is not being broken for peanuts...
There is probability of pretty big run and nearest suport doe snot matter much anymore.

CHikot: we will see next week what the AUD does..the BOE is expected to inject another 50B in the UK economy, this is negative for the GBP. In China there is bad news about the economy not growing fast enough for our likes :), this should be bearish for the AUD. The impact of both news should be visible on the GBP/AUD: if the AUD goes down more than the GBP, the GBP/AUD will rise, if the 50B news weighs more, than the GBP/AUD will go down. We will have to see how the markets picks up the China news, it can react very negatively by selling the AUD, CAD and NZD very aggresively, maybe the is an opportunity for a $/CAD long?? Anyway the graph doesn't look good for a long

Walker: I'm not doubling my risk, since EUR/$ and $/CHF have a negative correlation ( see https://www.forexticket.co.uk/#en, go to TOOLS, than CORRELATION, choose the currencies, choose the period), you will see that on a 200 day period the EUR/$ and the $/CHF have a negative correlation, if the EUR/$ goes up 100%, the $/CHF will go down 93%. In my example I went Long EUR/$, so if things go bad and the EUR/$ goes down, I am almost sure that the $/CHF will go up, that limits my loses.

mino

mino

I know that page.
and also know the corolation between paris.
if you are hedging you should not trade.

think you do is not hedging.
if you are hedging a pair you should use 3 paris and with calculated lots.

walker

   minosd777 posted:
   CHikot: we will see next week what the AUD does..the BOE is expected to inject another 50B in the UK economy, this is negative for the GBP. In China there is bad news about the economy not growing fast enough for our likes :), this should be bearish for the AUD. The impact of both news should be visible on the GBP/AUD: if the AUD goes down more than the GBP, the GBP/AUD will rise, if the 50B news weighs more, than the GBP/AUD will go down. We will have to see how the markets picks up the China news, it can react very negatively by selling the AUD, CAD and NZD very aggresively, maybe the is an opportunity for a $/CAD long?? Anyway the graph doesn't look good for a long

Walker: I'm not doubling my risk, since EUR/$ and $/CHF have a negative correlation ( see https://www.forexticket.co.uk/#en, go to TOOLS, than CORRELATION, choose the currencies, choose the period), you will see that on a 200 day period the EUR/$ and the $/CHF have a negative correlation, if the EUR/$ goes up 100%, the $/CHF will go down 93%. In my example I went Long EUR/$, so if things go bad and the EUR/$ goes down, I am almost sure that the $/CHF will go up, that limits my loses.

mino

Yeah, the week gonna be interesting. The most important how the market will receive all thos enews because it is possible everything has been absorbed by now and is in the current price.

just opened a number of short trades. these are a bit speculative.

The AUD seems strong, I will focus on that this week, maybe by adding to my EUR/AUD short or buying the AUD/$ pair, but only after the rate-cut decision of the RBA tomorrow.

I keep my EUR/YEN long with a stop at 100.30, I think this is a good stop-level since its just beneath the low of this morning (I'm lucky!). This trade is certainly a coinflip..

Don't you think you opened to many positions Chikot? If the YEN moves against you you will loose on 4 or 5 trades, if it goes with you you will have big gains for sure. Did you still use the ema crosses to take your decisions?

Walker: why is it risky to hedge my way? Can you give me an example of hedging with 3 pairs and calculated lots?

Good trading to both

yep, I had reason to short those pairs. not a strong trends and double tops, failures to make new highs on good news.
yeah, I can lose 4-5%, but if I am right and there is trend reversal I can get considerably more than that. plus, I am not sure each yen pair will make same moves. I think that ability to let profits run and get onto big move is more important.
I am planning to take profits differently if I am right.

I only think that I should have opened trades with smaller risk., but as I am in I will keep it this way. next time speculative trades will risk only 0.5% . outside of usd/chf short, the rest was speculative trades. ema's have not crossed.

manufacturing news surely propped gbp

taking PC for upgrade so will be back most probably tomorrow afternoon.

Has to wait for a part.
all trades but usd/chf are speculative. got stopped on cad/jpy. all shows double tops or lower highs on daily. I would have been much more confident without news avalanche coming Thursday/ Friday.
Speculative trades usually carry higher risk of losing but greater win potential if right.

I can do it now cause I know, once trend starts I have psychological ability to let trades run.

Yes tomorrow will be a big day for our trades: the ECB rate decision and the BOE further QE decisiob will both have a major impact on the market, maybe I will close my trades before the news, 'cause i don't like when positions are open, they can be wiped out in 10 minutes like 2 weeks ago...it's better to wait and see what direction the market will be heading to once that the storm calmed down

Yeah, but from what I remember, it is often when bank holiday that big moves start. go figure. it might be now.

want to try it before news. let's see how things will go.

e/u and usd/chf looks like much correlated. the number pips one goes in my direction another moves against me.

I decided to look for at least 2:1 R:R pip count to start taking profits and my task is to get and lock 1:1 R:R amount risk the moment I am taking first partial profit. it has more sense and is better trade money management. look where is my gbp/aud now. 6:1 pip count to risk and I obviously did not earn what i should have.

Yes your GBP/AUD trade is really great, if there is any rebounce maybe you can consider ading to your short? I could not trade a position for such a long time, the max i did was 2 weeks with my EUR/$ trade, but at that time i was so sure that the EUR was heading down that i opened big, with no stop. My E/A is going to be closed very soon, i want to lock profits

Trading before news is more of a gamble I think, people ( and myself) underestimate the impact of news, we think that the big boys made sure that every news is already priced in but that's not true. I am pretty sure, whatever happens that we will see a lot of volatility tomorrow