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question for experienced traders

wallace06
Mar 15 2011 at 02:38
2 posts
I am have been trading equities for years. Demo forex trading for about a year and trading live for only a few months. I have been very successful so far, up 79% year to date. I have been manually trading using fib retracement and using the RSI indicator. My question is, is this a strategy or am just getting lucky? Any comment or suggestions would be greatly appreciatied!

scalping, always scalping
PipGnostic
TheCyclist (TheCyclist)
Mar 15 2011 at 05:02
724 posts
Mmmm...

Fx has 4 market states. Trend slow, trend fast, range slow, range fast.

Takes a while to see all of them. Look at Nov/Dec 2008 (weekly be good) on EurUsd vs. everything else since then. That was the last real fast trend in 3 years. How would you have fared in that ? My view is it takes abut 5 years fx trading to see everything, so any system has a 5 year test period as far as I'm concerned. Few months doesn't mean much. That said, if you're coping with he 50:1 it's already a major victory in itself.

I think Gary Player said it best: 'Funny, more I practice the luckier I get.....'

speki
Mar 15 2011 at 07:01
735 posts
wallace06 posted:
My question is, is this a strategy or am just getting lucky? Any comment or suggestions would be greatly appreciatied!


Wallace, that is an excellent question. Where's the line between skill and luck?
I had the same conversation with someone a few months ago. Two variations of the same question:

1. if you're losing money, how do you know if your strategy's bad or it just doesn't work under those market conditions?
2. if you're winning, how do you know if your strategy's good or it just 'overfits' the current market?

Sorry I don't have an answer, but you're not alone with that thinking. 😁

If you have some time, consider reading 'Fooled by randomness' - a good book about 'skill vs. luck in trading', with lots of funny examples.


Surround yourself with people whose eyes light up when they see you and who have no agenda for your reform.
James_Bond
Mar 16 2011 at 14:00
556 posts
I been in the same position before..

I would say that determining if you're lucky or not by telling if you have strict money management rules and a trading system in place - ie you're not placing trades based on your hunch.

Another good test would be to test it over different market periods - ie trending/ranging.

Why haven't you connected the system to Myfxbook? I would love to see the system in question.

FXForever (FXForever)
Mar 16 2011 at 16:20
4 posts

speki posted:
    
1. if you're losing money, how do you know if your strategy's bad or it just doesn't work under those market conditions?
2. if you're winning, how do you know if your strategy's good or it just 'overfits' the current market?




 😄

just take small every time... you will surely gain...
wallace06
Mar 16 2011 at 17:51
2 posts
Thanks for all the feed back, I cannot connected my system to myfxbook because my broker is not an option. I use ACTTRADER platform on CLUBFX and it is not a recognized broker.

scalping, always scalping
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