The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum yesterday bottomed at 107.66 but traded higher earlier today hit 108.83. The bias remains bearish in nearest term testing 107.00 region. Immediate resistance is seen around 109.15/30. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays below 110.96 I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase and any upside pullback should be seen as a good opportunity to sell.
Last time USD/JPY short time upside rally rejected at 109.90 & also passing the key support (also intraday support ) 108.50. It heading towards 107.66 range. The downside pressure still very going on as there is not yet any strong indication of intervention from Japanese Government & Fed also not in way to push up dollar yet. In this scenario if clear pass 107.66 then it might lead to the downside target at 106.60 near the historical support at 106.50. If USD/JPY push further then look at 104.64 - 105.88 range. It might stabilize at 105.88 range if it sell off further and no intervention case.
Next week there are key events but it might not be a quick remarkable reversal. Main focus is on China GDP q/y. If it positive it will boost dollar. A contrary move above 109.30 & 110.90 resistance areas are first warning signs. Its move to 107.66 will indicate whether downside major levels can hit or not.
This morning post Tokyo session it hits a new trend low at 107.62 as we know that. After that there were some verbal threats from Japanese side. It's like they are very frustrated to see as it tries to break through that level. There are not yet any obvious strong reaction yet against the overall trend. Since the move is overextended so much as we understand so need caution also.
At 4 hour chart a harami forms giving some break and price still struggles to break above 5 & 8 EMA resistance.
As long price under 107.60 stronger the bearish bias as well as key break of 107.50.
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