USD/JPY has risen more than 4% over the past three days, noting a new three-week high on a psychological level of 105.00. Probably, the currency will return to the support level 103.40, and then move down to 101.25. An alternative scenario would be a successful break of strong resistance level of 105.00 at the top, which will open the way to 106.80 resistance level.
Perhaps the market is too aggressive in their expectations regarding the 'helicopter money'? Incentives will come, but when? JPY crosses are in risk to form a top, if interest in safe assets, which was active after Brexit, did not return.
The US dollar was down against the Japanese Yen on Friday. By the end of the trading session USD/JPY is traded at 104.83, shedding 0.47%. I believe that the support is now located at around 100.42, Monday's low, and resistance is likely to beat the level of 106.31 - a maximum of Friday's trading.
There were high expectations that the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus. According to some forecasts the regulator will emerge fiscal stimulus, but the Bank of Japan will prefer to wait and study the special budget plan to be drawn up in the coming weeks. If the expansion of monetary stimulus occurs, it will give direct support for banks. The bank at this stage see a number of obstacles and I doubt that there will be something soon. Since the Bank of Japan may disappoint the markets, we should be cautious in terms of sales of USD/JPY, as a fiscal stimulus should support the pair. Ideally, decline to 104.00-50 yen would be an excellent opportunity for opening long positions.
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