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Use of martingale strategy

Ironman
Feb 22 2013 at 18:24
70 posts
BellaVista: I don't trade for loooooong if you mean I hold on to my trades for long.

My point is, in 10000 trades, you will encounter 18 losses in a row. Can you sustain that?



That's a good analogy, ppentz.
Having been in the roulettebusiness, you'd be amazed how many people think something (Red, Black, Evens etc) is _due_. It never is...
BellaVista507
Feb 22 2013 at 18:32
251 posts
Please check my system. I don't experience more then 4 losses in a row. Lets not speak in theory. Let us speak in fact. All thought this thread isn't about my system. The fact is that martingale DOES WORK, as it counters a losing trend! It boils down to the system which you use. As in the sense. If you have an entry and a stop loss of 200 pips. Once you stop loss you then enter a larger position. That to me is a roulette trade. As your basing your second order on OLD information. On trading bias. Instead of price action or any other important factor us scalpers use.
BellaVista507
Feb 22 2013 at 18:35
251 posts
Yet, in forex a REVERSAL is ALWAYS DUE. Even on a 200 pip spike, you will get a reversal. Even if it is of 10 pips. So please don't use the ' red,black,evens, odds is due and compare it to forex. In forex you ALWAYS HAVE A PULLBACK! Stop being so pessimistic.
ppentz
Feb 22 2013 at 18:43
37 posts
BellaVista507 posted:
 Please check my system. I don't experience more then 4 losses in a row. Lets not speak in theory. Let us speak in fact. All thought this thread isn't about my system. The fact is that martingale DOES WORK, as it counters a losing trend! It boils down to the system which you use. As in the sense. If you have an entry and a stop loss of 200 pips. Once you stop loss you then enter a larger position. That to me is a roulette trade. As your basing your second order on OLD information. On trading bias. Instead of price action or any other important factor us scalpers use.

Which system are you talking about? Is it 'Scalp for Profit'? If it is, I don't see a martingale component.
Ironman
Feb 22 2013 at 19:02
70 posts
Of course a pullback will happen, but will it be now, or in 200 pips? Some losing trades in between.

Oohhh, the information you scalpers use.
I know what you mean, and use a bit of price action as well... Not arguing there.
We'll see... time will tell.
As I said, I wish you look, and will follow your progress with great interest.


ppentz: Yes, it is there... you can see it in may last year when it was 1 trade from going bust.

BellaVista507
Feb 22 2013 at 19:20
251 posts
ppentz posted:
BellaVista507 posted:
 Please check my system. I don't experience more then 4 losses in a row. Lets not speak in theory. Let us speak in fact. All thought this thread isn't about my system. The fact is that martingale DOES WORK, as it counters a losing trend! It boils down to the system which you use. As in the sense. If you have an entry and a stop loss of 200 pips. Once you stop loss you then enter a larger position. That to me is a roulette trade. As your basing your second order on OLD information. On trading bias. Instead of price action or any other important factor us scalpers use.

Which system are you talking about? Is it 'Scalp for Profit'? If it is, I don't see a martingale component.

 Hello Ppentz, Yes I am referring to that system. I have only been able to use martingale on about 3% of my total trades for the week. As I tried a reverse script, and it didn't work to well for me. Then of course when you do it Manually you have to be very fast on the trigger and not hesitate. Which is something I do most of the times. If I don't catch it on the actual reversal I'll wait for the next one. Yet, for me it literally comes down to ONE CANDLE. There is one candle which changes the trend, It is that candle which I am in research for. Most time I'm able to make 5- 10 pips trading against the overall trend, yet to me that is worth about 6-10% of my account, so I'll take those trades when they are there.
BellaVista507
Feb 22 2013 at 19:22
251 posts
Ironman posted:
Of course a pullback will happen, but will it be now, or in 200 pips? Some losing trades in between.

Oohhh, the information you scalpers use.
I know what you mean, and use a bit of price action as well... Not arguing there.
We'll see... time will tell.
As I said, I wish you look, and will follow your progress with great interest.


ppentz: Yes, it is there... you can see it in may last year when it was 1 trade from going bust.


 That is the question. Yet for me I believe I have found a very good way to identify it on the 1m time frame. So much so I can even get the tp if I wanted to. Yet I have been scalping so long that I jump on the 5-15 pips profit in 3 mins as soon as I get it. Although I could earn 2x as much if I held 15 mins longer.
ppentz
Feb 22 2013 at 20:16
37 posts
I can't knock a system that's working! It sounds like you're trading mostly manually, which in my opinion is better than using a martingale EA. You can make adjustments on the fly but you can't with an EA. Your success speaks for itself, so keep up the good work!

Any system is going to have ups and downs. The main thing is to believe in it and stick to it ... if it's working. The system I'm using now is a new EA I wrote that is non-martingale, but I've only been running it for a few days so it's too early to tell. It backtested great but we all know that's not the same as real time. I'm using a similar strategy where I try to jump on a reversal early and ride it to the bitter end. When it works it's great, it bagged me 195 pips yesterday, but because it tries to jump on a trend early it's going to have a lot of false positives. Time will tell. If it works even close to back testing I'll be a happy dude.
BellaVista507
Feb 22 2013 at 20:24
251 posts
ppentz posted:
I can't knock a system that's working! It sounds like you're trading mostly manually, which in my opinion is better than using a martingale EA. You can make adjustments on the fly but you can't with an EA. Your success speaks for itself, so keep up the good work!

Any system is going to have ups and downs. The main thing is to believe in it and stick to it ... if it's working. The system I'm using now is a new EA I wrote that is non-martingale, but I've only been running it for a few days so it's too early to tell. It backtested great but we all know that's not the same as real time. I'm using a similar strategy where I try to jump on a reversal early and ride it to the bitter end. When it works it's great, it bagged me 195 pips yesterday, but because it tries to jump on a trend early it's going to have a lot of false positives. Time will tell. If it works even close to back testing I'll be a happy dude.

 Well ppentz what is your avg drawdown pip wise while trying to catch the reversal? As for my system, If I could simply have a martingale ea which I can trust. I WOULD go from negative pips profit which resulted in 100% profit on the week. To maybe 250 pips profit on the week which would have this account over 1000% on the week while never using more then 40% equity.
ppentz
Feb 22 2013 at 20:32
37 posts
I'm using a Stop of 75 pips, but it also uses the Parabolic SAR indicator to determine the exit point so it normally closes a losing trade before it hits the stop. This is a wild guess based mostly on back testing, but I'd say it's probably about 40 - 50 pips normally on a losing trade. I know that sounds like a lot, but it makes up for it with potentially unlimited gains when it is right. At least that's the idea!
BellaVista507
Feb 22 2013 at 21:00
251 posts
ppentz posted:
I'm using a Stop of 75 pips, but it also uses the Parabolic SAR indicator to determine the exit point so it normally closes a losing trade before it hits the stop. This is a wild guess based mostly on back testing, but I'd say it's probably about 40 - 50 pips normally on a losing trade. I know that sounds like a lot, but it makes up for it with potentially unlimited gains when it is right. At least that's the idea!

 I understand what your saying. Have you tried maybe using your entry based on daily pivots/ medians? You will be shocked to see that all trend reversals (resulting in 300+ pips) result from a bounce off a pivot. Take a look at yesterdays drop in eur/jpy. It happened off a pivot. The very good thing about pivots is that when the price accumulates at a pivot. You can almost tell where it will go next based on the formation at the pivot.

 Use those indicators and change the hour to LONDON time. It will back test the last 15 trading days. Look at how the price (on 1m) either bounces or accumulates from it. It will shock you if your apt to identifying certain formations.

Attachments:

uozoms
Feb 22 2013 at 22:10
5 posts
It's simple. You loose in the End. Why is this even being discussed ?
BellaVista507
Feb 23 2013 at 13:11
251 posts
uozoms posted:
It's simple. You loose in the End. Why is this even being discussed ?

 What a classic pessimistic response. Now he wants to generalize every ones profit or loss.
ppentz
Feb 25 2013 at 00:37
37 posts
BellaVista507 posted:
ppentz posted:
I'm using a Stop of 75 pips, but it also uses the Parabolic SAR indicator to determine the exit point so it normally closes a losing trade before it hits the stop. This is a wild guess based mostly on back testing, but I'd say it's probably about 40 - 50 pips normally on a losing trade. I know that sounds like a lot, but it makes up for it with potentially unlimited gains when it is right. At least that's the idea!

 I understand what your saying. Have you tried maybe using your entry based on daily pivots/ medians? You will be shocked to see that all trend reversals (resulting in 300+ pips) result from a bounce off a pivot. Take a look at yesterdays drop in eur/jpy. It happened off a pivot. The very good thing about pivots is that when the price accumulates at a pivot. You can almost tell where it will go next based on the formation at the pivot.

 Use those indicators and change the hour to LONDON time. It will back test the last 15 trading days. Look at how the price (on 1m) either bounces or accumulates from it. It will shock you if your apt to identifying certain formations.

I could use a better entry point strategy, I think. I'd like to get my winning percentage higher. I'll take a look at the indicators you attached and let you know what I think.
Pacific Scalp (Alpscalp)
Feb 27 2013 at 11:24
113 posts
Have to say that I basically agree with Uozoms. You can better use the 'math' differently. Although I have to see that its good to see that some trading strategies are added to this roulette game..
BellaVista507
Feb 27 2013 at 17:26
251 posts
Well if you believe that trading is roulette. You better withdraw once you have profit. That is the only way to earn a living from it. I sure do not know of anyone who has won 80% of his wagers on roulette. Yet in forex you have many people who do it.
BellaVista507
Feb 27 2013 at 17:29
251 posts
ppentz posted:
BellaVista507 posted:
ppentz posted:
I'm using a Stop of 75 pips, but it also uses the Parabolic SAR indicator to determine the exit point so it normally closes a losing trade before it hits the stop. This is a wild guess based mostly on back testing, but I'd say it's probably about 40 - 50 pips normally on a losing trade. I know that sounds like a lot, but it makes up for it with potentially unlimited gains when it is right. At least that's the idea!

 I understand what your saying. Have you tried maybe using your entry based on daily pivots/ medians? You will be shocked to see that all trend reversals (resulting in 300+ pips) result from a bounce off a pivot. Take a look at yesterdays drop in eur/jpy. It happened off a pivot. The very good thing about pivots is that when the price accumulates at a pivot. You can almost tell where it will go next based on the formation at the pivot.

 Use those indicators and change the hour to LONDON time. It will back test the last 15 trading days. Look at how the price (on 1m) either bounces or accumulates from it. It will shock you if your apt to identifying certain formations.

I could use a better entry point strategy, I think. I'd like to get my winning percentage higher. I'll take a look at the indicators you attached and let you know what I think.

 I would say, that focusing on the winning positions being the correctl to size is important. Yet of course we dont know our positions are winners until we close them. Yet if you click my name. Please look at the difference between my two accounts. Last week I closed the week in negative pips. Yet over 100%. That is because I focus more on the winning positions being the reverse order.
Pacific Scalp (Alpscalp)
Feb 27 2013 at 20:49
113 posts
I understand but what I basically mean is that those people use Martingale more as some sort of hedging (so double if you were wrong). In the end you will always loose with that (The math will kill your account). But the people you mean and as I read in this thread are using a strategy for entry etc. Thats the real strategy (good or wrong). The Martingale is the whiskey ;-)
BellaVista507
Feb 27 2013 at 21:15
251 posts
Oreplay posted:
I understand but what I basically mean is that those people use Martingale more as some sort of hedging (so double if you were wrong). In the end you will always loose with that (The math will kill your account). But the people you mean and as I read in this thread are using a strategy for entry etc. Thats the real strategy (good or wrong). The Martingale is the whiskey ;-)

Excellent way of putting it.
ppentz
Feb 28 2013 at 02:58
37 posts
I'm following someone on ZuluTrade that has a winning percentage of 94%. I'd sure like to know how he does it. I've never been able to get close to that.
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