To use chat, please login.
Back to contacts

FA: the Holy Grail of trend trading.

tacet
Nov 10 2019 at 11:51
57 posts
FA = Fundamental Analysis. TA = Technical Analysis.

It's not a secret that FA is primary and TA is secondary for any serious trader. Even if you are a 5 pip scalper - it's way better to do it along the trend than against it.

Contribute to this thread: look at charts of the past and present. Find a trend, big or small - post it here with your opinion of fundamentals behind it.

I start with: what's the major fundamental reason for the GBPCHF massive fall from ~10.30 in 1972-73 to today's below 1.30: - I know the answer, do you?


Attachments:


every beautiful garden has a strong hedge around
niceGLer
Nov 10 2019 at 19:28
165 posts
End of Bretton-Woods system? It's just a wild guess..

Professional4X
Nov 10 2019 at 21:48
1189 posts

Perhaps you could give more details and specifics as to the 'holy grail' nature of your system?

While I do agree that trading with the trend can be extremely profitable, it is hardly a holy grail implementation of trading system.



If it looks too good to be true, it's probably a scam! Let the buyer beware.
tacet
Nov 11 2019 at 08:59
57 posts
niceGLer posted:
End of Bretton-Woods system? It's just a wild guess..


not really because: why then the effect was sooooo negative for GBP (and continues today) and sooooo positive for CHF?

every beautiful garden has a strong hedge around
tacet
Nov 11 2019 at 09:04
57 posts
Professional4X posted:

Perhaps you could give more details and specifics as to the 'holy grail' nature of your system?



it's not my system. it's just me calling FA the holy grail... it's the foundation of trading... it's difficult to be good at it as we r not insiders... Like 97% can't give the right answer to the question above...

every beautiful garden has a strong hedge around
niceGLer
Nov 11 2019 at 12:54
165 posts
tacet posted:
niceGLer posted:
End of Bretton-Woods system? It's just a wild guess..


not really because: why then the effect was sooooo negative for GBP (and continues today) and sooooo positive for CHF?


Swiss Franc was pegged to gold until 2011. Otherwise, it could have something to do with UK's colonial past. Canada or Australia. Gold or mining industry, anyways? UK joined to EU in 1969, but I wouldn't put a blame on that.

That figure implicates that the economy of UK has been declining for decades.

brashentries
Nov 11 2019 at 13:24
10 posts
Are you going to give the answer?

tacet
Nov 11 2019 at 14:28
57 posts
niceGLer posted:
tacet posted:
niceGLer posted:
End of Bretton-Woods system? It's just a wild guess..


not really because: why then the effect was sooooo negative for GBP (and continues today) and sooooo positive for CHF?


Swiss Franc was pegged to gold until 2011. Otherwise, it could have something to do with UK's colonial past. Canada or Australia. Gold or mining industry, anyways? UK joined to EU in 1969, but I wouldn't put a blame on that.

That figure implicates that the economy of UK has been declining for decades.


Like you analysis and a good attempt with gold, but not really as only Basel 3 gave gold the upper status in 2018... well, declining for decades, but not sooo much to Swiss... or Japan...



declining for decades: not really as the UK is still the 5th world economy... You are close, just need a bit more... sometimes unthinkable represents the solution... by the way the UK joined not in 1969 but in Jan. 1973...

every beautiful garden has a strong hedge around
rickyb
Nov 12 2019 at 06:08
83 posts
Together with Germany, the Swiss pioneered monetarist theories in the 1970s: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) allowed money supply to rise only gradually, using tools like minimum reserve requirements for banks and relatively high real interest rates. that is why chf got stronger.

niceGLer
Nov 12 2019 at 06:27
165 posts
rickyb posted:
Together with Germany, the Swiss pioneered monetarist theories in the 1970s: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) allowed money supply to rise only gradually, using tools like minimum reserve requirements for banks and relatively high real interest rates. that is why chf got stronger.


The case seems to be similar with JPY, however. It must have been some sort of internal reason..

- Loss of overseas territories
- Germany as a rival
- WWII era politics -> huge debts to the US
- Pound lost its position as a world reserve currency (de-pegging with gold)
- IMF loans to UK (devaluations of pound)
- Troubles in Ireland
- European Union, somehow
- something else I can't think of

Please login to comment .