Forex is chaos, but you can overcome chaos

Apr 16, 2012 at 06:40
2,798 Views
38 Replies
Member Since Apr 14, 2012   26 posts
Apr 16, 2012 at 06:40
That's the proof:
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Master_of_Chaos/chaos-theory-demo/286270

It is a demo account, but the same automated system runs on a real account, look for: Chaos Theory-real.
The market always wins, be a part of it
Member Since Apr 06, 2012   3 posts
Apr 17, 2012 at 06:19
It doesn't matter how much I read, In FX market the was is & will be chaos always. instead of fearing chaos we have to make better strategy so we can take opportunity of this moment.

TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Member Since Feb 07, 2011   724 posts
Apr 17, 2012 at 06:22 (edited Apr 17, 2012 at 06:33)
Not chaos man.

If it was big business wouldn't exist. Need stable currencies for global business to work. If you want to leverage to +100:1 and put down gazillions to try make a quick buck, then yeah sure, it is chaos.

For the rest of us not so much.
Member Since Apr 14, 2012   26 posts
Apr 17, 2012 at 18:01
Congratulation, if you know whether the GBP/USD goes up or down tomorrow and how much. I don't know it and in addition I'm not interested in.
The only question for me is, will the movement of the currency strong enough to make money and even this I cannot answer. And at which time... in the morning, in the afternoon... nobody knows...... for me on a short and medium term view the movement is chaotic.
And that is the reason why most of the people in trading loose money. They try to predict or forecast something according to mathematical formula, which cannot be described with discrete formula.
That's what I say, not more. And that is of course not the view and the demand of an economist.
The market always wins, be a part of it
Member Since Jan 06, 2012   2 posts
Apr 17, 2012 at 21:39
Notice how the growth and equity growth lines are diverging more and more.
Member Since Apr 14, 2012   26 posts
Apr 18, 2012 at 04:30

   djack23 posted:
   Notice how the growth and equity growth lines are diverging more and more.

I cannot see the divergence...... they simply run in a channel...... be sure tomorrow, in 2 days or in 5 days you will tell me that there is a convergence.... each interpretation depends on the time range ;-)
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Member Since Feb 07, 2011   724 posts
Apr 25, 2012 at 03:27
Divergence should be more evident now?
Member Since Apr 14, 2012   26 posts
Apr 25, 2012 at 04:36

   TheCyclist posted:
   Divergence should be more evident now?

Not at all........ it is the normal behaviour for a system which likes ranging markets. And the major part in a year we normally have ranging markets...... the only question for the demo system is: is the risk setting too high to survive the trend?.....But I don't think so ;-)
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Member Since Feb 07, 2011   724 posts
Apr 25, 2012 at 04:47
Me thinks you're running a fat tail with no stops mate.

In effect you're limiting your winners with Tp's and have unlimited open losses. Not very sophisticated and definitely not worth pursuing as a trading strategy.



Member Since Apr 14, 2012   26 posts
Apr 25, 2012 at 10:24
Sorry, but you make your conclusions without any knowledge about the system and the idea behind it. Nobody forces you to follow my accounts.
But if you follow, you'll see that it will run with profit.......... nobody's knows the future, but the profit of the real system can be estimated with 10 Euro/day and the demo system with about 150 Euro/day.

By the way, in regard to stops..... have you ever thought about hedging?
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Member Since Feb 07, 2011   724 posts
Apr 25, 2012 at 11:18
Lol - oh boy have I thought about hedging. Few years now or something.

I been around the block mate.

Over the years I must have binned a few hundred of these systems. Been battling the fat tail for at least 3 years now, can't build a future on a fat tail system. You can hedge till you are metallic purple in the face - at some point you have to deal with your losers or wipe out and/or run out of margin.
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Member Since Feb 07, 2011   724 posts
Apr 25, 2012 at 11:39 (edited Apr 25, 2012 at 11:43)
I've even tried running the fat tails against each other, i.o.w's hedging. Know what happens? You end up with two sets of losing trades, instead of one. And you start building positions in other pairs if you use more than one pair to hedge.

Start taking them off the table, because you're running out of margin, suddenly have exposure and exactly what happened on your portfolio in the last two days is what happens. The NAV crashes.

Anyways, not important. Going away soon, so don't mind me. Just an observation.
Member Since Apr 14, 2012   26 posts
Apr 25, 2012 at 16:51
You are talking about something, with which you have no experience. I'm sorry, but you don't understand anything of the system otherwise you could at least calculate, that the system could never run in a margin call.

By the way, our discussion stops exactly at this point, because I don't waste my time with ignorant and impolite people. Finished !!!
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Member Since Feb 07, 2011   724 posts
Apr 26, 2012 at 01:30 (edited Apr 26, 2012 at 01:50)
Sigh...

Haven't been doing this for a decade at all. Can't see what's going on in a system at a glance. I might be many things, but ignorant is not one of them, not when it comes to fx trading.

Good luck with that double fat tail.

Just like to point out that djack said balance going one way, equity the other. You said nonsense, come back in 3 or 4 days. It's been those 3 or 4 days now and it's got worse. A lot worse.
Member Since Aug 16, 2010   453 posts
Apr 26, 2012 at 18:41
this is another way to hell.. going up on balance down on equity! haha
Was mich nicht umbringt, macht mich stärker.
Member Since Apr 22, 2010   15 posts
Apr 26, 2012 at 22:19

   Master_of_Chaos posted:
   

   TheCyclist posted:
   Divergence should be more evident now?

Not at all........ it is the normal behaviour for a system which likes ranging markets. And the major part in a year we normally have ranging markets......

System history shows a conservative 1.87% monthly average with a NAV high of 9.91% over 8 months. Losing all profit in a couple of weeks is normal behavior? At the rate this system earns, looks like you may be stuck for some time.
Member Since Apr 14, 2012   26 posts
May 17, 2012 at 16:13

   mistificator posted:
   this is another way to hell.. going up on balance down on equity! haha

Why argueing, when the time deliver the proof. The fat divergent tail is winning, as predicted LOL...... in average it wins between 0.5 and 1 percent a day..... not every day, but in average ...... this system will always win, if you don't choose the risk too high ........ but we'll see the coming weeks
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Member Since Feb 07, 2011   724 posts
May 17, 2012 at 23:28
You got lucky. Nothing more. 85% DD on that demo...
Member Since Apr 14, 2012   26 posts
May 18, 2012 at 03:34
Of course.......... the ideas and the success of anybody else is always pure luck........ You are sooooo right...... LOL
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Member Since Feb 07, 2011   724 posts
May 18, 2012 at 04:03
Sigh - k, whatever.

If that 85% DD doesn't give you a wake up call nothing will.

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