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Not one system or EA here is worth putting real money into

conorp
Aug 08 2013 at 11:05
23 posts
My title says it all.
The vast majority of systems and EAs on this site are rubbish. There may be some good ones that I havnt found, but Im not going to spend any more time trying to find them.

In general, the results are of most systems here are driven by one or more of the following:
1. Backtested on demos only (anyone can generate great results with backtests)
2. Manipulated (i.e. adding and subtracting deposits from the account or hiding trades. I noticed discrepancies in many of the figures)
3. Manipulated to gain high win/loss % by using horrendous drawdown exposure and/or by averaging down. Total system failure awaits those that practice this. Its not a matter of if, but when.
4. Or just plainly falsifying trades
5. Using scalping backtests to make small pip gains on large #s of trades that do not take into account slippage and fees (and/or by manipulating/shaving points from the spread).

In short, this site is a total waste of my time. I cant even search by specific criteria such as a combination of the following:
drawdown, profitability, average $ win to average $ loss and win/loss %

What a waste of my time.

deysmacro
Aug 08 2013 at 11:54
275 posts
I understand though you just 21 hours ago registered here, so it does make sense. 😝

Past experience usually helps present self
msuhaimi2007
Aug 08 2013 at 13:09
38 posts
Yeah... agree with deysmacro... take your time searching... eventually you will find it... or perhaps, you should trade yourself eh...

conorp
Aug 08 2013 at 14:08
23 posts
Im open to being proven wrong. If you know of systems that generate some profit (and not those ridiculous 100% + returns per month that no one believes), manage drawdowns and have an average win > average loss, then let me know.

FXdiversified
Aug 08 2013 at 14:08
30 posts
I think long term registration at my fxbook might not replace market knowledge but ... conorp... did you expect a formula how to make x% every month? Well, you might get it... it is like always a question of risk... the risk level for x% a month is the same here as elsewhere..... So you might waste your time all your way up and down the miracles of portfoliomanagement :-)

conorp
Aug 08 2013 at 15:15
23 posts
Thanks diversified. Im aware of issues relating to risk. From my perspective, I will look at any system that does the following in order of importance for assessing it
1. Manages risk (more important than anything else)
2. Makes more $ per trade than it loses per trade
3. Makes profit
4. win/loss % (this is the least important stat, but still needs to be calculated in combination with the avg win $ and avg loss $)

But, my real point is that most of the systems here purporting to be huge winners and have massive win% are either bogus or seriously flawed. All will implode or fail over time. You cannot beat proven facts. A superb win% is 65% of trades. Even maintaining this level with an edge is very difficult. The key is to have your winners larger than your losers. This will allow you to go into periods where your performance drops below 50% and still have the chance to either break even or make a small profit.

To be honest, I know what Im talking about. But I actually didnt come on this site looking for a system to buy. I was pointed here by a CTA who wanted me to look on this site. However, when I did start to look through the site, the lack of any way to sort or find or filter systems really started to get to me. I had to click on each one individually to find out that they were all shockingly bad. I wasted hours looking at rubbish systems and then finally posted this thread.

Here is the reality of trading.
-If you have no idea which way the market is going and choose a direction at random, then you will have a 50% chance of being right. However, you wont necessarily know that immediately.
- The question therefore is how much risk are you willing to take to find out if you are right? A robust enough risk management system could bring your win % down from 50% to perhaps low 40s (for arguments sake lets say 42%). All this is assuming that you dont have an edge over anyone else (By the way, its been proven that most indicators have about a 50% probability of giving a correct signal - therefore these will not necessarily give you an edge).
- The only way then to make sure that you can come out with a profit at the end while at the same time managing risk, is to ensure that your profit on each winning trade is greater than your loss on each losing trade.

In reality, a good trader should be able to maintain a > 50% win rate (his edge being experience and knowledge of market behavior) and also have his 2:1 reward to risk per trade.


sbresee (sbresee)
Aug 08 2013 at 16:04
53 posts
How long have you traded and what is your average rate of return per year?

Only take what the market will let you have, and Never accept a loss!
sbresee (sbresee)
Aug 08 2013 at 16:06
53 posts
How long have you traded, and what is your rate of return per year?

Only take what the market will let you have, and Never accept a loss!
mmuller
Aug 08 2013 at 16:30
26 posts
Hi conorp! I agree to your principles on assessing a system.

It's possible to use search engine with specific criteria to compare systems/track records of users here.
Just click 'systems' on the main menu and you'll find it...

I myself try to trade with R:R ratio you described, it's of course easier said than done. My account(s) is quite close to your requirements, although I had to split it into 2 myfxbook accounts, because my of the change in my broker OANDA division
from US to Europe..


https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mmuller/invest/255170
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mmuller/invest2/538576

-Mika

adrian8891 (adrian8891)
Aug 08 2013 at 16:45
696 posts
Stupidity... If You dont belive in any EA here then maybe try to make Your own, or like one used said : trade manually. Of course if You look at risk, maybe one suitable thing for You are bonds?

Sorry but people like You makes me laugh...why? You want millons without any risk of loss.

In concluson: B-O-N-D-S.

PAMM MANAGER // Professional Fund Manager
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