Thanks diversified. Im aware of issues relating to risk. From my perspective, I will look at any system that does the following in order of importance for assessing it
1. Manages risk (more important than anything else)
2. Makes more $ per trade than it loses per trade
3. Makes profit
4. win/loss % (this is the least important stat, but still needs to be calculated in combination with the avg win $ and avg loss $)
But, my real point is that most of the systems here purporting to be huge winners and have massive win% are either bogus or seriously flawed. All will implode or fail over time. You cannot beat proven facts. A superb win% is 65% of trades. Even maintaining this level with an edge is very difficult. The key is to have your winners larger than your losers. This will allow you to go into periods where your performance drops below 50% and still have the chance to either break even or make a small profit.
To be honest, I know what Im talking about. But I actually didnt come on this site looking for a system to buy. I was pointed here by a CTA who wanted me to look on this site. However, when I did start to look through the site, the lack of any way to sort or find or filter systems really started to get to me. I had to click on each one individually to find out that they were all shockingly bad. I wasted hours looking at rubbish systems and then finally posted this thread.
Here is the reality of trading.
-If you have no idea which way the market is going and choose a direction at random, then you will have a 50% chance of being right. However, you wont necessarily know that immediately.
- The question therefore is how much risk are you willing to take to find out if you are right? A robust enough risk management system could bring your win % down from 50% to perhaps low 40s (for arguments sake lets say 42%). All this is assuming that you dont have an edge over anyone else (By the way, its been proven that most indicators have about a 50% probability of giving a correct signal - therefore these will not necessarily give you an edge).
- The only way then to make sure that you can come out with a profit at the end while at the same time managing risk, is to ensure that your profit on each winning trade is greater than your loss on each losing trade.
In reality, a good trader should be able to maintain a > 50% win rate (his edge being experience and knowledge of market behavior) and also have his 2:1 reward to risk per trade.