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Opinions on ESMA & Financial Markets

NottsBlade
Jul 06 2018 at 14:10
75 posts
'WE BET RESPONSIBLY AT 365'

What makes those who gamble on sports events or attend casinos anymore responsible than us small retail traders on here? Trading the financial markets is a profession, Technical Analysis is a profession, there are professional qualifications in TA: https://www.sta-uk.org/education/cisi-accreditation/


Walk through any bookshop in London and you will find whole sections filled with thousands of books about trading the financial markets and books on Technical Analysis.

If trading is considered to be gambling then it is only because the markets have been turned into one huge casino, because things have been allowed to get out of control but small retail traders are not to blame and making small retail traders the scapegoats is not the answer.


No these trading restrictions are wrong and unfair!!! No justification whatsoever!!!
NottsBlade
Jul 06 2018 at 14:31
75 posts
Edwin Lefevre in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator tells the story of Jesse Livermore who faced the same problems that small retail traders face today - Bucket Shops. It's a book read by thousands.


Solution: Close the Bucket Shops!!!

First published in 1923, Reminiscences is a fictionalized account of the life of the securities trader Jesse Livermore. Despite the book's age, it continues to offer insights into the art of trading and speculation. In Jack Schwager's Market Wizards, Reminiscences was quoted as a major source of stock trading learning material for experienced and new traders by many of the traders who Schwager interviewed.

The book tells the story of Livermore's progression from day trading in the then so-called 'New England bucket shops,' to market speculator, market maker, and market manipulator, and finally to Wall Street where he made and lost his fortune several times over. Along the way, Livermore learns many lessons, which he happily shares with the reader.


https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Edwin-Lefevre/dp/1946963062
Professional4X
Jul 06 2018 at 19:54
1189 posts
NottsBlade posted:
Check this out and see how algorithms are trading against us!!! Total disregard for trend lines, averages and technical indicators. Turning the markets into a casino!!! Totally goes against all logic and common sense!!!

I sense a lot of anger and frustration from you.
Perhaps you just lost a sum of money in the markets and you are still angry, upset, or hurt by this?

If so, then that alone is a clear indication that you should NOT be trading at all.

Emotions have no place in markets.

Posts like yours I've noticed will typically happen right after a new trader has just lost their investment capital and they want to blame the markets for their losses, and accept no responsibility for them.

'It's the markets!'
'My system works! Why did the markets steal my money!'
'The markets are rigged against me....'
blah blah blah

The only guarantee of winning in the markets is not to invest in the markets.
Very few people have the actual skills required to make a reasonable income over a long period of time.

Also, it is unreasonable for you to simply throw a few moving average lines on a screen and then claim 'oh the markets are rigged.... it makes no sense.... blah blah blah'.

Markets are much more than just moving averages. And the fact that you don't understand that, also shows you don't understand how the markets really work.

It isn't about just technical indicators, or news events, or other fundamentals.
To really make money, you have to consider ALL of these things, and more.
If it looks too good to be true, it's probably a scam! Let the buyer beware.
NottsBlade
Jul 06 2018 at 20:06
75 posts
Only got one thing to say: 'Soybeans'
Professional4X
Jul 06 2018 at 20:17
1189 posts
NottsBlade posted:
I'm having panics attacks now - seriously!!! I don't want to be having a go at politicians, economists, regulators and bankers they have a tough enough job to do without me having a go at them. I'm really p***** off at these stupid rulings and restrictions being put in place by ESMA and I'm just airing my views. It's nothing personal!!! I think it's wrong!!! I'd much rather be doing my own thing and focusing on my trading and left in peace!!!

THAT RIGHT THERE IS ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WHY YOU ARE LOSING MONEY.

You have NO business at all trading until you get your emotions under control.

None of the regulations that are in place will prevent you from making money in the markets.

Yes, the regulations make it harder to make money for some people by forcing smaller leverage levels (1:20, 1:50, etc)

And yes some regulations for retail traders can be absurd (FIFO in my opinion).

But even with all these regulations that many consider to be 'unreasonable' regulations, those alone does not prevent a retail level trader from a reasonable income from investing in the markets.

However...

When you combine your complete lack of self discipline with your obvious reliance on a few common technical indicators that only show a one very small part of a data point regarding market analysis, you are basically giving yourself a guarantee of losing your money.

My advice to you is to go back to demo or switch to a cent account for trading until you get your psychological and emotional issues under control.

If it looks too good to be true, it's probably a scam! Let the buyer beware.
Professional4X
Jul 06 2018 at 20:21
1189 posts
NottsBlade posted:
Only got one thing to say: 'Soybeans'

Soybean prices can be EASILY explained if you properly evaluate the global fundamentals for them.

There is no 'hidden agenda' or 'rigging', at least not in the manner which you think exists.

Did you evaluate and analyze the impact of recent trade contracts, taxes, transport costs, tarrif placements, and generalized consumer level considerations?

NO OF COURSE NOT. Because you clearly don't understand what those things are or how they are causing these fluctuations in the soybean markets.

You're never going to make money long term if THAT is the chart you are basing all your trades on.

You DO NOT understand how the markets work.
If it looks too good to be true, it's probably a scam! Let the buyer beware.
NottsBlade
Jul 07 2018 at 07:55
75 posts
Like I said: 'Soybeans'

Professional4X You think I'm ignorant and I don't do my research - you are so wrong and I begrudge that comment!!! You do not have a clue where I do my research. You want to undermine somebody do elsewhere. If you want to help any help me any help is welcome!!! Happy Trading!!!
NottsBlade
Jul 07 2018 at 08:16
75 posts
chesterjohn
Jul 08 2018 at 05:58
16 posts
0.5 lots on a £100 account? I can't work out if that's a clever way of setting a trade or not... It goes in the right way and you make a large percentage quickly. It goes in the wrong way and you get a margin call almost immediately. Not much room for volatility though!
ComebackKing
Jul 08 2018 at 06:26
37 posts
@NottsBlade I can't tell if you are a troll or just off your meds.

Why are you trading copper? I thought you were trading FX pairs. If you want to trade copper, which is pretty retarded, just trade copper futures on the CME. Regulated, 100% transparency. Now there's very little liquidity and it's a dead market for 20 hours each day but that's better than trading it through an FX broker.

You should do yourself a favor and take a big step back and reevaluate what you're trying to accomplish. If you think you can trade every financial instrument under the sun and be successful you will find a lifetime of failure ahead. Focus on 1 thing and trade that until you get good at it. Maybe that 1 thing is the FTSE or the DAX or the DOW or oil or natural gas or gold. Or maybe you just get good at trading break out pull backs or false breaks and trade those on a few major FX pairs. Figure it out.

If you're not a troll then you really need to check yourself and simplify. Based on your posts in this thread your going backwards and the longer you go backwards the longer it will take to reach 0.
NottsBlade
Jul 08 2018 at 06:31
75 posts
Thanks for all the supportive comments, please keep them coming!!!
LongVision
Jul 08 2018 at 06:38
254 posts
Your post makes no sense. Sometimes market may be manipulated but large sale rigging is impossible.
The market will trade through it’s path of least resistance .
NottsBlade
Jul 08 2018 at 07:14
75 posts
If you look at my opening comment: Check this out and see how algorithms are trading against us!!! Total disregard for trend lines, averages and technical indicators. Turning the markets into a casino!!! Totally goes against all logic and common sense!!!


I feel that algorithms are trading against us, I feel that the spikes up and down are caused by algorithms and yes I feel that the averages are being manipulated on the shorter time frames e.g. 5min, 15min, 4hr and even in some cases the monthly and I'll show you how it's done.

There are 3 ways of trading the markets

1. Candlestick Charts
2. Line Charts
3. Bar charts

Now I'm taking it for granted that the majority of traders use candlestick charts and have no regard for line charts. If you look at my chart set up you will see that I'm using candlesticks, but and this is the BIG one I also have two averages: 1 EMA close and 1 EMA open. You will see by looking at the chart that my 1 EMA close aligns with the line chart.


Now what I am saying is that price is manipulated via the line charts. All these spikes that you see on candlestick charts are pretty much irrelevant what matters is price on the line chart.

This is an example of what could happen, I'm not saying it will happen, but it's always in the back of my mind that it might happen and this affects my confidence trading.

Using EURMXN as an example see charts above: Price has moved below all the averages on all the lower time frames, through 50, 100 and 200 Smooth MA's. But and this is the BIG BUT if you look at the monthly chart that candlestick is still in play because we are still in the month of July. Now price on the monthly candlestick could spike up past all the averages on the lower time frames.


This is how a lot of small retail traders are stopped out because they are not aware that price can spike up and down.


USDCHF Monthly is a typical example see charts above

I hope this explains my comments and I'm sorry if I have caused offence to anybody.
NottsBlade
Jul 08 2018 at 07:28
75 posts
….and before everybody starts jumping down my neck I'm trying to defend small retail traders on here, PEOPLE. I'm trying to defend the futures of everybody, because soon if we are not careful we'll be living like ZOMBIES, not able to think for ourselves, not being able to use the brains that God blessed us all with. If people want Artificial Intelligence making decisions for us all then I'm sorry this world is on a slippery slope downwards.

I have nothing personal against Bankers or Brokers. If anything I'm trying to defend them, defend their futures. I don't want to see the City Of London turned into a Ghost Town, I don't want to see our city centres turned into ghost towns. There is a massive price to pay by rushing into Artificial Intelligence and there is the human cost, a social cost. Peoples livelihoods are at stake, millions of jobs could be at stake.

Furthermore Banks are rushing headlong into using Algorithms to make decisions, to place trades etc and we don't know what SAFEGUARDS are in place. We don't fully understand what we are dealing with and what the repercussions could be. Only the few, the elite in society are likely to benefit from these advances if we're not careful!!!

I feel there are 3 freedoms under threat that we all take for granted:

1. Freedom of Movement
2. Education
3. Equality

That's what I sense is at stake and those 3 things are worth defending. E.g. Students being burdened with debt whilst past generations got it for nothing. That is unfair and wrong!!!
NottsBlade
Jul 08 2018 at 07:30
75 posts
….and no I'm not taking my meds and yes I am trying to get psychiatric help. I hope this answers your questions!!!
NottsBlade
Jul 08 2018 at 07:38
75 posts
I could quite easily save up £200 and go out and buy a trading robot and get it to do all the trading for me. That's the easy option!!!Just sit back and do nothing and make 10% a year or whatever. I actually enjoy Technical Analysis, I enjoy what I learn, I surprise myself and I'm still learning. It keeps me occupied.
NottsBlade
Jul 08 2018 at 07:49
75 posts
Many Gifts, One Purpose
July 8, 2018

Just as a body, though one, has many parts, but all its many parts form one body, so it is with Christ.—1 Corinthians 12:12
Corn, also called maize, is the staple food in my home country of Mexico. There are so many different types. You can find yellow, brown, red, and black cobs, even ones with a wonderful spotted pattern. But people in the cities usually won’t eat the spotted cobs. Restaurateur and researcher Amado Ramírez explains that they believe uniformity is a synonym of quality. Yet the spotted cobs taste good, and they make excellent tortillas.
The church of Christ is much more similar to a spotted ear of corn than to a cob of just one color. The apostle Paul used the imagery of a body to describe the church, because even though we are all one body, and we have the same God, each of us has been given a different gift. As Paul said, “There are different kinds of service, but the same Lord. There are different kinds of working, but in all of them and in everyone it is the same God at work” (1 Corinthians 12:5-6). Our diversity in the ways we help each other shows God’s generosity and creativity.
As we embrace our diversity, may we also make every effort to keep our unity in faith and purpose. Yes, we have different abilities and backgrounds. We speak different languages and come from different countries. But we have the same wonderful God, the Creator who delights in so much variety. —Keila Ochoa
Father, may we make every effort to be one, respecting and valuing each other and our various gifts and talents.
We need one another in order to be what God wants us to be.

odb.org
NottsBlade
Jul 08 2018 at 08:25
75 posts
Furthermore I want to add the following: During the Second World War there was a Slogan which read: 'Idle Gossip Costs Lives!'. Well, something similar could be said about the financial markets. Every time a politician, an economist, central bankers or banker opens their mouths it costs pips!!!

What these people in higher positions say fuels the market, causes price to go up or go down. One minute rates are going up, next minute nobody knows, next minute rates are going down. Don't tell me that people in higher positions are not aware of these comments and furthermore there are websites dedicated to getting information before it is released e.g. Dataminr.com.
NottsBlade
Jul 08 2018 at 11:19
75 posts
NottsBlade posted:
If you look at my opening comment: Check this out and see how algorithms are trading against us!!! Total disregard for trend lines, averages and technical indicators. Turning the markets into a casino!!! Totally goes against all logic and common sense!!!


I feel that algorithms are trading against us, I feel that the spikes up and down are caused by algorithms and yes I feel that the averages are being manipulated on the shorter time frames e.g. 5min, 15min, 4hr and even in some cases the monthly and I'll show you how it's done.

There are 3 ways of trading the markets

1. Candlestick Charts
2. Line Charts
3. Bar charts

Now I'm taking it for granted that the majority of traders use candlestick charts and have no regard for line charts. If you look at my chart set up you will see that I'm using candlesticks, but and this is the BIG one I also have two averages: 1 EMA close and 1 EMA open. You will see by looking at the chart that my 1 EMA close aligns with the line chart.


Now what I am saying is that price is manipulated via the line charts. All these spikes that you see on candlestick charts are pretty much irrelevant what matters is price on the line chart.

This is an example of what could happen, I'm not saying it will happen, but it's always in the back of my mind that it might happen and this affects my confidence trading.

Using EURMXN as an example see charts above: Price has moved below all the averages on all the lower time frames, through 50, 100 and 200 Smooth MA's. But and this is the BIG BUT if you look at the monthly chart that candlestick is still in play because we are still in the month of July. Now price on the monthly candlestick could spike up past all the averages on the lower time frames.


This is how a lot of small retail traders are stopped out because they are not aware that price can spike up and down.


USDCHF Monthly is a typical example see charts above

I hope this explains my comments and I'm sorry if I have caused offence to anybody.

If you are wondering how to make sense of all the charts in the earlier post above, just open them all at once and then rearrange the tabs!!!
NottsBlade
Jul 08 2018 at 15:31
75 posts
Financial Markets - Elliott Wave Theory


The Elliott wave principle is a form of technical analysis that finance traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), a professional accountant, discovered the underlying social principles and developed the analytical tools in the 1930s. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call 'Elliott waves', or simply 'waves'. Elliott published his theory of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle in 1938, summarized it in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and covered it most comprehensively in his final major work, Nature's Laws: The Secret of the Universe in 1946. Elliott stated that 'because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable.

Since when did humans become psychologists in the behaviour of Artificial Intelligence? I thought they were being programmed to tell us what to do!!!

The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale. Algorithms do not have emotions, neither does Artificial Intelligence!!!

If algorithms are trading the financial markets how can the markets be showing collective investor psychology with all its emotions.

I'm not having a go at Elliott Wave, I'm not having a go at Robert Prechter but if the financial markets are a representation of mans productivity where does Artificial Intelligence come into it.

Furthermore how can we trust volume? If HFT are making millions of transactions a day how can that be classed as investor (people) transactions.


As for market manipulation: 'Manipulation is possible in the day to day movement of the averages, and the secondary reactions are subject to such an influence to a more limited degree, but the primary trend can never be manipulated'. The Dow Theory, by Robert Rhea (Rhea, p.12) and (2)


Refutation of the first idea in pages 379 -384 of Pioneering Studies in Socionomics (2003) and a challenge to the idea of any consequential manipulation of the averages in pages 365 - 370 of the The Wave Principle of Human Social Behaviour (1999)


My personal opinion is that Elliott Wave is used to some degree to manipulate the financial markets. This is my personal opinion, but if you're counting waves and you label them a, b, c and the market spikes making 4 & 5. I'm not saying Elliott Wave does not exist because I believe under perfect conditions is probably does.

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