Warm greetings Callen. Nice to see a fellow Singaporean here. To be frank, none of us here are experts, and none of us here can forecast. What we do is simply reacting with discipline. Have a proper plan that suits your personality, then stick with it. You can evaluate your performance and plan say every 3 months, and decide if your plan requires any modifications.
Once your system rides on a winning streak, your confidence will be rebuilt, but don't lose your discipline. In theory, it is as simple as that, but in reality, a lot of 'human factors' get in the way. So learn to control yourself. :)
"The first rule of forecasting should be that the unforeseen keeps making the future unforeseeable." - David McCasland (January 5,2012, Our Daily Bread)