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What Are Your Golden Rules?
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ScottyCarsonMVP

Member Since Feb 10, 2019  54 posts ScottyCarsonMVP Feb 11 2019 at 11:42
Good evening fellow traders, I am new to trading and therefore I am curious to know what are the golden rules people follow without fail....

walpants

Member Since Feb 07, 2019  44 posts walpants Feb 12 2019 at 07:05
im also only learning but one thing i will never do is trade without a stoploss.

ScottyCarsonMVP

Member Since Feb 10, 2019  54 posts ScottyCarsonMVP Feb 15 2019 at 13:50
Thanks for your reply : )

Was hoping some of the self proclaimed experts would spare some advice...

Treeny

Member Since Feb 08, 2019  134 posts Treeny Feb 17 2019 at 07:05
Don't chase your losses, accept them

Saffire

Member Since Feb 08, 2017  3 posts Saffire Feb 17 2019 at 09:37
Hello everyone,

A few years ago and even to this day I ask for help on the forums. I will try to summarize some experiences that have helped me along the way.

First, unless you are a good programmer and can be on top of your robot, technical analysis is not based on rules, it's just an indicator.
The books that teach technical analysis are dated, old (most written in the 70s) and are backwards looking. (Everybody can see an ascending triangle after it was formed). You don't need more than some lines on the chart because:
Trading is done outside of the platform. Yes, it is true. The Chart price is just another indicator like the RSI, MACD etc. Proof: you are given the trading platform for free with live data coming from the market, why? Staying in front of the platform will just result in lost time, no insight, no edge.

Second, low timeframe trading (below the Daily chart) is unreliable for humans. The lower timeframes are reserved for HFT & algos. you need to increase your trading timeframe if you want money.

Third, you need to learn statistics. This will be a difficult task and it's the missing piece of the puzzle. Watch some statistics applied to financial markets on Youtube, it will guide you the right way.

Forth, Excel. For manual trading you need Excel. I suggest staring with Statistical Distrubutions of EURUSD using the Analysis Tool Pak. Use =CORREL function on currency pairs to determine the correlation level. (Use the Excel I provided for some Insight)

FIfth, Read ISM Manufacturing & Services (https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/index.cfm?SSO=1)
(https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Release/PressReleases?language=en) at least for US, they will give you an insight on what is happening in the world. As a matter of fact ISM Manufacturing is around 75% accourate in predicting US GDP (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2016/03/25/pmi-and-gdp-do-they-correlate-for-the-united-states-for-china/)

Sixth, Follow all major Central banks (FED, ECB, RBA, RBNZ, SNB, BOJ, BOC, BOE) when their Governors are speaking, get acquainted with the jargon and listen carefully what they say about economic indicators.

Seventh, Economic indicators put in Excel. For US: ISM Manufacturing, NMI, M2 money supply, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, Building approvals, Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan), Business Sentiment. Reading about them will give you a future view about what the economy will do. Example: At the moment the US indicators are on a maximum but with no proof that a recession will hit US. THe EUR marked a narrow escape from recession with Germany GDP contracting, France GDP contracting and sentiment falling for EUR along with their respective PMIs (lMarkit Link above).

Eighth, Timing. Use COT. Search for terms such as FLIP, Commercials, non-commercials. Youtube is your friend.

Ninth, Stop loss is above your ATR. Find the ATR formula and calculate it yourself for pairs.

There is still a lot to say and the strategy requires a lot of effort, however it is one that I value highly because it plays on my strengths. Recently I decided to make money out of the 50$ bonus account from some random broker.


Best of luck
Attachments:
COrrelations.xlsx

ScottyCarsonMVP

Member Since Feb 10, 2019  54 posts ScottyCarsonMVP Mar 05 2019 at 07:29
Thanks for the information Saffire

Teejy88

Member Since Jun 10, 2017  35 posts Teejy88 Mar 05 2019 at 12:45
My one and only rule! Risk management, manage your risk and you will not fail.

Abderrahmane1992

Member Since Mar 05, 2019  8 posts Abderrahmane1992 Mar 05 2019 at 15:24
Teejy88 posted:
My one and only rule! Risk management, manage your risk and you will not fail.


I second that. Risk understanding is critical to trading. Without that even a good trader will lose all their money

Saffire

Member Since Feb 08, 2017  3 posts Saffire Mar 06 2019 at 08:36
Greetings Everyone!

I hope that some of my tips helped you shape that trading behavior. This evening I want to talk about ATR and how to use it (again, google is your friend on what is ATR, how is calculated and variations of the formula). In short, ATR = SL (I'm taking some liberties here for the sake of simplicity). What ATR does is to measure the volatility of the asset so that we can measure 2 things: Where will my SL&TP needs to be and how long will it take to hit that target.

In the Excel example I have used 4976 days for the EURUSD pair to measure the average volatility(marked as 'Daily Global Average' in Excel). After that I have counted the instances above and below the average. You can see additional info in the Excel but we can draw the further conclusion 'Over the past years volatility has been diminishing for the EURUSD meaning our profits become less and less, regardless of leverage).

Lastly, there is a simple SL&TP formula to use in your trading. It's what I use and has been useful so far.

Best wishes,
Saffire

Teejy88

Member Since Jun 10, 2017  35 posts Teejy88 Mar 06 2019 at 12:52
Abderrahmane1992 posted:
Teejy88 posted:
My one and only rule! Risk management, manage your risk and you will not fail.


I second that. Risk understanding is critical to trading. Without that even a good trader will lose all their money


Indeed, and not only that, it means that you can lose trades and still be profitable.

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