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Why 90% of retail traders fail...

felotus
Nov 20 2013 at 16:09
53 posts
Rubn posted:
Nice article, do you think the per cent of losers is less in other markets rather than forex?


Yes.
There is not a single hedge fund that has been able to consistently make money in the FX market.
Whereas there are a few of funds working on futures, convertibles, volatility etc. that have been able to make sustainable performance for the past 30 years.

The truth is, you are not supposed to make money on the FX market. You're supposed to buy dollars because you want to speculate on the S&P 500 as an european and as such, don't care much whether you buy your dollars at 1.3030 or 1.3050 because you're speculating on other US based assets.

I work in a hedge fund.
FX-Parity
Nov 20 2013 at 16:39
28 posts
That couldn't be further from the truth. There are 100's of active fx funds on Deutsche Bank Select program. Many of which have been around for 15-20 years... That's just one program too.

The information on these funds are not always made public, but are for the use of capital allocators.

I have previously worked for a hedge fund (fund of funds). It was paramount that we allocated to fx managers to diversify our structured products.

Not to get into a debate about it. None the less, you will believe what you like :)

Thanks for your post :)

Rubn (Rubn)
Nov 20 2013 at 16:43
85 posts
felotus posted:
Rubn posted:
Nice article, do you think the per cent of losers is less in other markets rather than forex?


Yes.
There is not a single hedge fund that has been able to consistently make money in the FX market.
Whereas there are a few of funds working on futures, convertibles, volatility etc. that have been able to make sustainable performance for the past 30 years.

The truth is, you are not supposed to make money on the FX market. You're supposed to buy dollars because you want to speculate on the S&P 500 as an european and as such, don't care much whether you buy your dollars at 1.3030 or 1.3050 because you're speculating on other US based assets.


Hmmm interesting conversation, I think that although the fx markets are a little more complicated there are hedge funds making money in it, a major example would be the Quantum fund and the story about George Soros 'breaking' the Bank of England.

In my humble opinion, if speculation in currency markets were 'bad business' there would not be so many hedge funds that invest in this markets. What do you think?

Preservation of capital and home runs.
Rubn (Rubn)
Nov 20 2013 at 16:50
85 posts
Thinking more in deep about all this, I belive the 'losers rate' is too high because of all the misinformation, bad broker's data feed and all of their maneuvers like stop hunting, trading against you, fading the price, etc.

I also belive that nowadays its so easy for anyone who knows nothing about speculation to open a tiny account with one of those brokers (more like bucket shopes to me) and start trading on whatever they like.

Just my opinion of course.

Preservation of capital and home runs.
FX-Parity
Nov 20 2013 at 17:17
28 posts
Hey Ruben :)

You've hit some interesting topics with regards to the ethics of fx brokers.

I intend on writing a blog about the misconceptions of 'stop hunting', slippage and 'trading against you' etc.

FX is as lucrative as any free market. Retail traders believe what they want to believe though.

Rubn (Rubn)
Nov 20 2013 at 17:27
85 posts
Thanks Gilberto!

I'm looking forward for your blog, please post it here when you finish it, I think its a very important topic.

Regards :)

Preservation of capital and home runs.
felotus
Nov 20 2013 at 19:54
53 posts
Rubn posted:
felotus posted:
Rubn posted:
Nice article, do you think the per cent of losers is less in other markets rather than forex?


Yes.
There is not a single hedge fund that has been able to consistently make money in the FX market.
Whereas there are a few of funds working on futures, convertibles, volatility etc. that have been able to make sustainable performance for the past 30 years.

The truth is, you are not supposed to make money on the FX market. You're supposed to buy dollars because you want to speculate on the S&P 500 as an european and as such, don't care much whether you buy your dollars at 1.3030 or 1.3050 because you're speculating on other US based assets.


Hmmm interesting conversation, I think that although the fx markets are a little more complicated there are hedge funds making money in it, a major example would be the Quantum fund and the story about George Soros 'breaking' the Bank of England.

In my humble opinion, if speculation in currency markets were 'bad business' there would not be so many hedge funds that invest in this markets. What do you think?


That was quite a long time ago and Soros lost 800M$ two times within 6 months afterward.


DGilberto posted:
That couldn't be further from the truth. There are 100's of active fx funds on Deutsche Bank Select program. Many of which have been around for 15-20 years... That's just one program too.

The information on these funds are not always made public, but are for the use of capital allocators.

I have previously worked for a hedge fund (fund of funds). It was paramount that we allocated to fx managers to diversify our structured products.

Not to get into a debate about it. None the less, you will believe what you like :)

Thanks for your post :)


Any ISIN ? Fund name? we've been going through thousands of funds and beside a very few ones, they're all worst than buy-and-hold S&P even if you start in 2000 and just go through the crisis. I stopped counting how many phone calls I received, asking about good fx funds.

I work in a hedge fund.
Rubn (Rubn)
Nov 20 2013 at 23:56
85 posts
felotus posted:

Soros lost 800M$ two times within 6 months afterward.




Lost 800M$ twice? trading what? I have not heard of that, can you please give me a link to read that story? Look, even if that was true, He and Stanley Druckenmiller are great traders, and I think their money speaks for itself.


 
felotus posted:


That was quite a long time ago





So in your point of view, the past success does not mean anything? I don't agree with you, Jesse Livermore was one of the greatest traders of all times, making and LOSING millions (in today's money that would be BILLIONS) and all that trading his own money. And Livermore is just an example, there are tons of traders from the 'old times' who were really succesfull, I don't see the point in making an statement like 'That was quite a long time ago', well, yes, it was long time ago, does that mean that doesn't count? hmm..


But going even deeper in the subject, forget about Soros and all the great traders, can you please tell me, WHY do you feel the fx market is harder? Also, what do you trade? and what is your style? I'd like to know more in deep about your thoughts.


Regards.

Preservation of capital and home runs.
yuvraj
Nov 21 2013 at 14:35
4 posts
well some do succeed
its all a mater of aiding with the correct systems and signals
today there is so much data so its the only way to go
i have tried a number of auto-trading and signaling solution
with the correct use if these solutions one can protect his funds win and most especially not loose !!!
if your not too greedy with the ratios you choose you will do some nice gain

good luck to all - let the bulls !

go fed go
 


volatility is the traders best and worse nightmare
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