Arbatov System Discussion

Arbatov posted:
    

forexma posted:
    About russians I can say few things: you love to drink in general, not only champagne and therefore you risk everything for a drink. It's a national problem.
The other thing is as traders russians tend to risk a lot and love martingale. I'm not talking about you but about russians in general.
Talking about you I can say nothing more than: FUNNY
You popup here with 24 trades and less than 2 months of hidden history and you wanna be an account manager.😇😇😇
Please come back again when you're sober-minded.

Let's not hurry to do what or the conclusions. Well?
Let will pass a few time.

In the biginning I was very sceptical about Arbatov, then he managed to gain my sympathies - he was polite and looked consistent. So, time told. Obviously he failed to withstand the market.

Maybe Arbatov can come back if there is no margin call. But if he gets a hugh drawdown on his pamm account, he might as well give up on it and start over because it will take a long time to get back to the high water mark.

Just finished reading this entire thread and was beginning to think that I was wrong in believing that trading styles that produce such high returns cannot be sustained in the long term. I guess my belief is still correct after all.

In my experience potential investors would be more than happy with Money Managers who can consistently produce monthly returns of 5-10%.

$100 cannot be considered an investment. It's more like spending money. When the deposits are this small, obviously he will need to produce huge returns to make it worthwhile for his investors and also for himself. And to produce such huge returns with a small trading capital the account will need to be highly leveraged.

I am not sure what the current status of this PAMM account is.. whether it's been margin-called or not. What is on myfxbook is probably not what you guys are referring to because it's still very much in profit despite the ~40% drawdown. Based on what is presented here, he has an accuracy of 82% so he's probably got a good strategy that simply needs to be coupled with good risk management and he'll be able to produce realistic sustainable long term results.

Just a quick question - would you prefer to invest with someone who produces HUGE returns (with a very real risk of busting the account down the line) like in this case or would you prefer to invest with a Money Manager who consistently produces realistic returns on investment (5-10% avg/month) that is easy to sustain in the long term ?

Anyway, I wish Arbatov the best and hope he's able to recover without being margin-called for his sake and his investors.

ranesh posted:
    
Just a quick question - would you prefer to invest with someone who produces HUGE returns (with a very real risk of busting the account down the line) like in this case or would you prefer to invest with a Money Manager who consistently produces realistic returns on investment (5-10% avg/month) that is easy to sustain in the long term ?

Anyway, I wish Arbatov the best and hope he's able to recover without being margin-called for his sake and his investors.

It all depends on how well the 'huge profits' trader can backup his results. If its huge results from 10 years trading and with very small maxium drawdown for the whole period, then of course thats the best. But if its huge profits with couple of months testing/trading, and nothing more, then of course thats not good enough.

So the real question is that what is the total profit against the biggest drawdown. It does not matter whether its huge profits or small.. those can be changed my money management.

ranesh posted: Just a quick question - would you prefer to invest with someone who produces HUGE returns (with a very real risk of busting the account down the line) like in this case or would you prefer to invest with a Money Manager who consistently produces realistic returns on investment (5-10% avg/month) that is easy to sustain in the long term ?

Please direct me to someone who can consistently produce realistic returns of 5-10% a month over the long term. I'd really like to meet them.

Patience posted:
    

ranesh posted: Just a quick question - would you prefer to invest with someone who produces HUGE returns (with a very real risk of busting the account down the line) like in this case or would you prefer to invest with a Money Manager who consistently produces realistic returns on investment (5-10% avg/month) that is easy to sustain in the long term ?

Please direct me to someone who can consistently produce realistic returns of 5-10% a month over the long term. I'd really like to meet them.

How long would you say is 'long term'?

I think a lot of people could do it, but they either A) are doing it and don't want anyone to know it B) get bored and make changes with it C) sabotage themselves because of it

I do believe 5-10% is easily achievable as I have had the fortune to experience 10%+ per month on a semi-manual system I have been trading off a thread in Forex Factory. I have only been doing it for 5+ months though, but the starter of the thread has been doing it for a lot longer.

I think what happens is YES, you will have a bad month (NO MATTER WHAT) and that bad month could be compounded. I am up 9% this week alone, but because I am up so much, I do expect to get hit the following weeks or at least a big slow down. I also have many methods systems that got killed this week. I have realized at least for me to stick with one method, master it and then my 3% - 10% a month is achievable, but I have to make it very boring and profitable... :)

Business Return On Equities tends to run between 6% and 22%. These are the average. Most people would agree that a business that is running at 22% can't be sustained and you are right. Walmart 5-n-dime turns into W A L M A R T!!

I think with most traders again, at a certain level they run into road blocks with their method, which are too many to mention as far as size, mental conditioning, life changes, would rather work for a bank/hedge fund, etc...

It is possible in my opinion... :)

Gil

~

ranesh posted:

jpkfox posted:
It all depends on how well the 'huge profits' trader can backup his results. If its huge results from 10 years trading and with very small maxium drawdown for the whole period, then of course thats the best. But if its huge profits with couple of months testing/trading, and nothing more, then of course thats not good enough.

So the real question is that what is the total profit against the biggest drawdown. It does not matter whether its huge profits or small.. those can be changed my money management.

Actually, I would also look at how heavily leverage is being used. Whilst being highly leveraged if the trader is able to stick to his risk management rules (no matter what) in a long period of time of trading, then yes one can clearly define what kind of a drawdown to expect and if there's any possibility of the account being margin-called or not. Usually a highly leveraged account where trader's risk management rules are NOT strictly adhered to, will most likely fail within less than a year of trading.

I think the focus of a trader should be 'steady growth' rather than 'lets triple the account in a month'.

<quote=Patience>

Patience posted:
Please direct me to someone who can consistently produce realistic returns of 5-10% a month over the long term. I'd really like to meet them.

You're doing extremely well yourself. And I'm sure a certain breed of investors (who have large sums to manage) will certainly be interested in working with traders like yourself. In my case I've just commenced my PAMM in Sept. My strategy from Jan-Aug (demo) has averaged ~10% monthly. It's on my profile.

By 5-10% monthly what I meant was an 'average' monthly performance... so basically there will certainly be months where it can be less than that. I think as the effects of compounding kicks in after some months of managing an account, it becomes easier to clear the upper rate of return (10%). Without any compounding I think 3-8% avg.monthly is achievable.


<quote=bluemele>
    

I think with most traders again, at a certain level they run into road blocks with their method, which are too many to mention as far as size, mental conditioning, life changes, would rather work for a bank/hedge fund, etc...

It is possible in my opinion... :)

Gil

Gil,

Yes I agree - most traders probably lack patience when they hit a slow or non profitable month and think that there is something wrong with their method/strategy...and end up trying to fix something that isn't broken... and eventually end up going bust. I think as they say 'mental conditioning/discipline' to keep plodding along without straying away from ones rules for trading is what makes or breaks a trader.

Have a blessed Sunday and a profitable trading week ahead.

bluemele posted:
How long would you say is 'long term'?

A couple of years of relatively consistent returns. I'm probably quite conservative when it comes to throwing my money someone else's way. But I don't want to take this thread off on a tangent since I have already done so talking about Oanda accounts and it's a bad habit of mine taking threads in a different direction so if there is a thread on here somewhere talking about this aspect, I'll put my 2p in and would be interested to see other people's opinions.

Me 5-25 % month....jejejej :)

I've been following a few quite profitable systems - in the beginning anyway. It is interesting to me that they've eventually gone backwards on the same activity -> over leverage - adding losing positions. Food for thought.

The margin call is near 😲

No, his Equity% is 100, no open trades.

Besides, his highmark may be 6800%, but I could live with the current 1900% 😀

Cheers

Soeren

GridsForPips posted:
    No, his Equity% is 100, no open trades.

Besides, his highmark may be 6800%, but I could live with the current 1900% 😀

Cheers

Soeren

Its not really 1900% profit, if you look at the whole total picture here!! :) . Think about you starding investing with him in 30 Aug . It was then 6150. Its now 1910. So there is -4240% drop! So you would be -4240% in loss.... !

Negative, it would be around 70% DD, because I wouldn't have the full loss, being only one of many investors...

Edit: 69.5% to be more precise... (Highest balance / current balance)

I dont think the amount of money/investors matters here, because its percentage the growd... so all investors would get the same result.

Arbatov, I just want to give you some words of encouragement after the large draw down. You have a good strategy as you have proven over the past two months. It is not necessary to achieve huge profits of a thousand or thousands of percent within a year to be successful. If you will tweak your trading strategy to reduce risk and yet have good returns, it will pay very well in the long term. A good return with Forex is 10% per month. If you achieve 50% to 100% per month consistently, you will make yourself and your investors so much money within 3 years, that you will not know what to do with it. Do not be discouraged. It takes trial and error to perfect a system. Here is a quote from the famous basketball player Michael Jordon: 'I have missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I have lost almost 300 games. On 26 occasions I have been entrusted to take the game winning shot, and I missed. And I have failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is precisely why I succeed.' Anyone who has spent significant time trading Forex knows this to be the case.

Арбатов, я просто хочу дать вам несколько ободряющих слов после большого перенести. У вас есть хорошая стратегия, как вы оказались за последние два месяца. Это не является необходимым для достижения огромные прибыли тысячи и тысячи процентов в год, чтобы быть успешным. Если вы будете настроить вашу торговую стратегию для снижения риска и все же имеют хороший доход, он будет платить очень хорошо в долгосрочной перспективе. Хороший доход с Forex составляет 10% в месяц. Если вам достичь 50% до 100% в месяц постоянно, вы сами и ваши инвесторы так много денег, в течение 3 лет, что вы не будете знать, что с ним делать. Не расстраивайтесь. Он принимает суда и ошибки совершенствовать систему. Вот цитата из знаменитого баскетболиста Майкла Джордон: 'Я пропустил более 9000 выстрелов в моей карьере. Я потерял почти 300 игр. В 26 случаях у меня было поручено принять игре победу выстрел, и я пропустил. А Мне не удалось снова и снова и снова в моей жизни. И именно поэтому я добиться успеха '. Любой, кто провел много времени торговли на рынке Форекс знает, что это действительно так.

Google Translator

tumbleweed posted:
    Arbatov, I just want to give you some words of encouragement after the large draw down. You have a good strategy as you have proven over the past two months. It is not necessary to achieve huge profits of a thousand or thousands of percent within a year to be successful. If you will tweak your trading strategy to reduce risk and yet have good returns, it will pay very well in the long term. A good return with Forex is 10% per month. If you achieve 50% to 100% per month consistently, you will make yourself and your investors so much money within 3 years, that you will not know what to do with it. Do not be discouraged. It takes trial and error to perfect a system. Here is a quote from the famous basketball player Michael Jordon: 'I have missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I have lost almost 300 games. On 26 occasions I have been entrusted to take the game winning shot, and I missed. And I have failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is precisely why I succeed.' Anyone who has spent significant time trading Forex knows this to be the case.

Арбатов, я просто хочу дать вам несколько ободряющих слов после большого перенести. У вас есть хорошая стратегия, как вы оказались за последние два месяца. Это не является необходимым для достижения огромные прибыли тысячи и тысячи процентов в год, чтобы быть успешным. Если вы будете настроить вашу торговую стратегию для снижения риска и все же имеют хороший доход, он будет платить очень хорошо в долгосрочной перспективе. Хороший доход с Forex составляет 10% в месяц. Если вам достичь 50% до 100% в месяц постоянно, вы сами и ваши инвесторы так много денег, в течение 3 лет, что вы не будете знать, что с ним делать. Не расстраивайтесь. Он принимает суда и ошибки совершенствовать систему. Вот цитата из знаменитого баскетболиста Майкла Джордон: 'Я пропустил более 9000 выстрелов в моей карьере. Я потерял почти 300 игр. В 26 случаях у меня было поручено принять игре победу выстрел, и я пропустил. А Мне не удалось снова и снова и снова в моей жизни. И именно поэтому я добиться успеха '. Любой, кто провел много времени торговли на рынке Форекс знает, что это действительно так.

Google Translator

Excellent post ! Yes Arbatov : never give up.. no matter what anyone says. Failures make the pillars of success. So keep going my friend and you'll do more than just fine. My best wishes to your future trading.

tumbleweed, very nice post and thoughts.

Anyway, this whole story comes to show us how dangerous overleveraged trading could be, also we have to forget all 'hold and hope' strategies forever. A good system comes with very clear rules and strict risk and money management. 2-3% risk/trade is awesome rule which helps us survive even if the market is very bad and all systems face bad market sooner or later. All martingale, pyramiding, grid and averaging strategies are ticking time bombs.