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The EW Trends II - 2% Daily DD (By Murat YAZICI)

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The EW Trends II - 2% Daily DD Discussion

Mar 11, 2022 at 14:59
4 Replies
Murat YAZICI (muratyazici)
Member Since Oct 07, 2016   47 posts
Mar 13, 2022 at 19:07
Welcome to the EW Trends EA!
It is based on a trend prediction method developed by me.

What is the Logic of the EW Trends?
It is based on A Fuzzy Mathematical Model including also several risk management algorithm.
Vague or fuzzy data and application in several fields, such as psychometry, image recognition, artificial intelligence, etc.
Some factors cannot be described accurately and [ … ] the best description of these kinds of output is that they are fuzzy outputs [1] [2].

The EW Trends EA is based on a fuzzy mathematical model. Its output looks like as the attached graph;
In a downtrend (RED!), in a uptrend (GREEN!).

The EA's optimization problem:
  - The objective function is min drawdown associated with max 2% loss and 2% profit for a trade.
    Risk/Reward ratio: 1/1.
  - We want to obtain a good gains at the end of the month with min drawdown. The min drawdown also means min
    risk. In this EA, it is very important to work with very little daily drawdown. I think this logic must be used in any others EA.

Please, pay attention to the EW Trends EA's daily drawdown on the graphs. The getting good profits with high
drawdown (high risk) is not a mathematics. However, to obtained good profits with possible min risk is a mathematical approach.

Some strict rules in the EW Trends EA:
  - The EW Trends EA allows only three opened trades at the same time for a pairs.
  - The max. trades in a day is 6 trades. After 6 trades, it does not open any trades for that day.
  - It has a border to limitate losses. According to the its risk level, the EA runs with max possible 2% loss in a day.

Controlling Drawdown:
  - The max loss can be 2% for a trade (a trade means that it has 3 trades at the same time with different opened time) and a day.
  - The EA stops to trade for that day if it has one loss. This means that the EA doesn't allow any further traders for that day after a loss.
  - According to the above rule, even if it is profitable for a day after a loss, the EA stops to trade for that day.

   1. H. Tanaka, H. Ishibuchi, Identification of possibilistic linear systems by quadratic membership functions of fuzzy parameters,
        Fuzzy Sets Systems 41 (191) 145-160.
   2. H. Tanaka, H. Ishibuchi, S. Yoshikawa, Exponential possibility regression analysis, Fuzzy Sets Systems 69 (1995) 305-318.
Murat YAZICI (muratyazici)
Member Since Oct 07, 2016   47 posts
Mar 13, 2022 at 19:22
Murat YAZICI (muratyazici)
Member Since Oct 07, 2016   47 posts
Mar 17, 2022 at 19:36
The EW Trends is running on a demo account now. However, it runs in a real environment.
I am working with Mt.Cook Financial. As a real environment, the EA pays commission for every trades.
It has obtained 5.02% growth so far. It has also paid 49.64 USD as the commission.
In general a demo account has not this real environment.
Murat YAZICI (muratyazici)
Member Since Oct 07, 2016   47 posts
Mar 21, 2022 at 07:57
The EW Trends EA weekly (March 14 -18) permormance report;

Growth: -0.10%,
Pips: -13,
Short trades: 5; Long trades 6,
Avg. trade length: 1h 40m,

Total Growth (4 trading days): 2.98%, Max DD: 3.95%.
Best, Murat Y.
Member Since Apr 18, 2022   2 posts
Apr 18, 2022 at 17:42
ok understand
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