Rest assured friends, I know exactly why this present move up in EuroYen was not caught by my EA. I watched the move in real time with careful attention to all indicators. I tried to address the issue once already with a new controlling feature to the EA, but backtesting did not like my solution, so I did not pursue it. I have a couple more creative ideas in mind that I am optimistic about.
A friend of mine said “Hey man, don’t worry about it. You can’t catch every move”. I say, why not? The point is I believe my system can be improved. It’s just a matter of study and creativity. Missing a surge up like this simply is not acceptable to me.
I don’t believe it will be much longer, however, before the true profit potential of this system begins to show itself. Wish me luck!
Today’s trade was a little frustrating. 3 pips cost us a missed gain of 3%. We made a half percent on the trade, but because price pulled back too far (3 pips too far to be exact) prior to EuroYen’s breakout candle the EA went into defensive mode and locked in a minimal 20 pip gain. We should of made 100 pips.
I will run some optimization tests to check my settings again, but it was just one of those unlucky events. I’m sure the same defensive feature of the EA will save us bigger losses in the future.
Better luck next time. At least we are still moving up
Sometimes I am just too cautious. I saw the EA was going to put us in long on EuroYen shortly after London came in and because i could not be around to watch things i canceled the order. I am simply afraid to go into NFP holding open positions. I've seem what can happen here. Of course if I would of know we would be up 40 pips pre-nfp I would of left things alone.
I will create a special setting template for nfp that will use minimal trade size and a few altered settings so we can at least participate when the market sends such clear signals. I dropped the ball this time, but I often error on the side of caution.
Thanks for the complement Jprize, Thanks also Speki -- good to see you stopping by to say hello.
I believe you are only seeing a glimpse of how this EA will perform after a couple more months of development. I’m also unhappy with the way my intervention has cost some loss profits. For example, I only caught a piece of the short on EuroYen because I was too conflicted about the uncertainty of the Yen’s response to the earthquake in Japan.
I was awake and watching the market as the tragic events unfolded. The initial reaction of the Yen was to weaken from the earthquake event (this seemed to me to make sense), but then the Yen strengthened and when the EA put me in short right near a trendline of support the EA had created, I closed things out at the first sign of a pullback. I knew under such extreme conditions price was libel to rocket any direction. So we caught a few pips when we should have caught a lot.
Some time I hope to report how I have saved everyone a nasty loss by my intervention but so far the EA is out performing my reasoning.
I now have the risk level set at 6% for the Fin managed account (up from 5%). My own account at ATC is running at 8% risk. Once a couple more defensive features are completed and if things are looking nice I may up the risk to 7% on FIN. (I started off running at 10% risk to produce the 15% monthly return, but I backed off from this when the market turned too volatile).
Friends, I'm going to cut trading off for tonight. There is just too much volatility.
As the wise Warren Buffet once said, 'the first rule of making money is to not lose money'.
If i see any obvious signals I will go from there. I think we just need another 12-24 hours for the market to work through the implications of the Japan situation. My bias is toward the Yen weakening but reversals are nasty right now.
A Note on the Different Activity Between the ATC and FIN FX accounts:
Numbers are deceiving. My profit has been going up on the ATC account the last 2 days because I have been cashing in on a couple of hedges I was forced to take because I got stuck holding 1 mini-lot of a long on euro yen. I took a gamble on my personal account and before I knew it I had to hedge to save a big loss.
I have certainly disappointed my investors on the managed account at FIN Fx as we have made almost no profit off the sell off in the market. I have had the EA off the last two days because I was afraid the BOJ would intervene (around the 80 level) on dollar yen, and as I was caught on the wrong side of the BOJ intervention the last time, I know how quickly price can rocket against the short here. Once again my reasoning cost us profit which my EA would have cleaned up on. I am going to try to take some steps to keep this situation from repeating.
I realize that until my EA produces spectacular results on backtests (though it does produce good results) and can handle every possible situation I have reason to be conservative with my investors’ money and intervene when I think situations are dangerous. At the same time, I realize my EA continually outperforms my conservative actions so I cannot justify my over-riding things so often.
MY SOLUTION will be to run TWO instances of mt4 splitting up the account equity (this does not mean creating two separate accounts – still one account). On one platform I will use a small risk amount 2-3% of the account to let the EA run with no manual intervention (except in the most extreme and obvious case) and on the second platform I will use a larger risk size, 3-4%, which I will allow my conservative manual intervention in (such as cutting the EA off, taking profit early, canceling pending orders, etc.).
If I am not risking much of my client accounts by letting the EA run itself I can sleep better and we should produce higher overall profit.
At least we have been making profit, but 4-5% a month is certainly below what my EA can produce.
Any comments or PMs are of course always welcome. I will also send a private email about this next step soon.
Anyone can look back at this kind of day and see how much they could have made. I doubt if yor EA was intended to work well in a market where every news story triggers violent moves. I would rather stand aside than try to guess right about every story off the news wires.
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