I backtested PIG SafeSetting 5 on AUDCAD H1 from July 1st 2013 to (03/26/14) and won $835.40 which is 20.88% of 4000, very close to your 20.28%. Could I assume that you are using SafeSetting 5 for your demo? Thanks.
I use a balance factor of 5000 or a safety setting of 4. I tend to think that where there isn't much in the account to lose, I can afford a little extra risk but as my account grows, the balance factor goes up and the safety settings goes down.
You can see what I was saying about back tests. Short term are closer to real than long term ones. Earlier you did a BT for 12 years and got 8.7% a year. But in just 9 months you got over 20% on that last test. That is too big of a discrepancy to try to rely on. I am forced to work with back tests from time to time, but I hate them.
However, that straight line for the profit is something to look for in a system. It means no losses. For the Passive Income Generator, it means that as it closes out several open trades at the same time, there may be some parts that close at a lose but the other part closes for a larger profit than the ones for a loss making the total trade set profitable, every time.
The PIG has slightly more risk than Rise but nothing worth talking about. And it averages around 2% a month.
1. I quite agree that backtest cannot be depended on for accuracy but as a quick feel it saves time. 2. Another factor for the 8.7% and 20% difference is the former is SafeSetting 3 and the latter SafeSetting 5. 3. For retirement money it would be better if we know the required balance that excludes account crash so that we can withdraw all money above for daily living. It seems SafeSetting 1 balance requirement is what is needed. The question is whether we have enough big nest egg whose 7% income is enough for a comfortable retirement. 4. As you know, many martingale/grid EAs give beautiful no-loss steadily-going-up performance, until the crash. Retiring people don't have another youth for a second a third job to rebuild the nest egg. That is why extra caution is never too extra when choosing the EAs for retirement money. 5. The demo forward account is running without surprises, started 03/26/14 with balance $4000, SafeSetting 5, made $30 so far.
The safety settings run backwards from the balance factor. The balance factor determines how large the first trade is. Divide the balance by the balance factor then divide that by 100. $4,000 is too hot, would recommend starting with $5000. Lets say you have a balance of $16000 and a BF of 5000 16000/5000 is 3, so your first trade in the set would be for .03 lots.
A safety setting of 4 was equal to a balance factor of 5000 however the new release just uses the balance factor as the safety settings were eliminated when we discovered that they were not making using the system any simpler and was actually confusing people. The new release is available just download it and set it up on your account. Make sure you shut down the MT4 before updating. Before mt4- 600 the program was more forgiving and would still updates if the mt4 was left open. It isn't like that anymore. The Mt4 may not update if it is still running when the new install is run. Just a little heads up.
From above 'Retiring people don't have another youth for a second a third job to rebuild the nest egg.' I know, I'll be 62 this year. Time does get past you doesn't it?
PS A martingale will not give a smooth curve effect, here is an example of a modified martingale curve. Phoenix Program Testing Account. This is not available to users yet, just something that I am working on.
Well, no I retired because I'm 62 years old and I have one last mission that has all my attention these days. Its the biggest trade in history, if we get it right, everyone on the planet wins, if we fail, everyone loses. Come and check it out, I would love to hear your opinion.
Am I correct that the demo does not incorporate swap interest (plus or minus) or commission charge as in the case of FXCM accounts? Will they have an effect on your EA in real accounts? How to deal with the effect if it is negative to avoid account crash?
EAgreat posted: Am I correct that the demo does not incorporate swap interest (plus or minus) or commission charge as in the case of FXCM accounts? Will they have an effect on your EA in real accounts? How to deal with the effect if it is negative to avoid account crash? Jim
Jim, yes the swap is accounted for but it is handled a little differently than might be expected. Instead of calculating everything out then adding to the take profit each day for the swap, the program watches the total profit and when that is greater than a certain amount, then it will close all of the trades, the ones in profit and the ones out of profit, however the total will always be in profit by doing it this way.
This is a good time to check out the aud-nzd as it is in serious draw-down. However, the total Draw is only at 35% or so. This is the first time that we have seen 10 iteration opened. If the price goes any lower, it will be in new territory, for the new forex spot market anyway.
Jim you are aware that you can down-load the Passive Income Generator and use it on a demo account free aren't you? And I will have a training program ready in a few more months as well. I'm thinking that the first lesson will be free also. However, in the mean time, let me know if you have any unanswered questions.
1. When I saw your demo history, I did not see swap interest, plus or minus, added. How could it be considered? 2. Now with FXCM in US, they also use commission with narrower spread. How could the total profit include the commission? 3. Yes, I did test the downloadable version, but at that time I was testing the SafetySetting levels. My result was that only level 1 is safe for me. I don't mind making lower annual percentage profit but I can't afford account crash. Other levels seem to reach crash in backtesting.
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