Razor EA (By TendencyForex)
| Gain : | +120.53% |
| Drawdown | 30.06% |
| Pips: | 9864.4 |
| Trades | 6913 |
| Won: |
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| Lost: |
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| Type: | Real |
| Leverage: | 1:400 |
| Trading: | Automated |
Razor EA Discussion
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 08:54
Japan’s trade minister said on Friday they will “act accordingly,” though added Japan is so far unclear on exactly how the US expect allies to support the SPR, according the Bloomberg report. IEA is set to hold an extraordinary meeting on Friday from 08:00 EDT, reports Reuters, to “discuss the impacts of the collective action and assess the current oil market situation.”
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 08:55
There were no surprises from OPEC+ on Thursday which indicated oil reserves will be raised by 432,000-bpd in May, as was planned last July, according to a press release.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 08:57
JPY (-0.7%) came under pressure in early trade as rate differentials come back into play with volumes running 20% above average, according to our eTrading team, bucking the trend with sharp drops in activity elsewhere.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 08:57
Meanwhile, JGB yields snapped lower in a frenetic start to trading which saw 30y drop as much as 8bps, before paring most of the move. The reset following the BoJ’s beefed up scheduled for bond buying for Q2, released after the close on Thursday, in the latest effort to pin yields.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 08:58
AUD saw a brief tick higher as a higher cash rate fix, drove a sharp but short-lived repricing of OIS rates. RBA overnight cash rate jumped 4bps to 0.09% for March 31, just 1bp below the cash target rate, a shock for the market given it hasn’t budged more than 1bp per day since November 2020.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 08:58
3y yields jumped around 13bps while OIS rates climbed 10bps in a knee-jerk reaction. The moves quickly unwound, which suggests to markets suspect this may be a month-end phenomena, where unusual fixes are often seen in other markets. However, expect heightened focus on this print in coming sessions to determine whether it is indeed temporary.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 08:59
Comments from Treasury Secretary Stephen Kennedy, who also sits on the RBA board, caught some focus and also appeared to pressure short-end rates higher. He said at a Senate hearing that with job vacancies at record levels it was possible that wage and inflation pressures could flow through faster than expected, meaning there was a coming opportunity to normalize monetary policy, reports WSJ. He added the balance of risks to the government's inflation outlook were to the upside.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 09:00
USD is firmer as yields Treasury yields tilt higher. We don’t read too much into the price action as interbank flows are running 20% below average as the looming US payroll print limits risk taking. We note that the level of skittishness and high implied vols can be observed in rates markets with 1d10y breakevens pricing in a move of ~8.5bps for the day
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 09:12
EUR holds little changed on the day with markets well-prepared for another significant upside beat to today’s inflation prints, as many of the components are now known. Our eTrading team highlights a bias from leverage names to sell EUR so far today. Looking ahead, it is important to draw a distinction between energy and non-energy inflation as this will be key for determining the ECB rate outlook.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 09:12
Treasuries yields are higher by 4-5bps with a surprisingly active pre-NFP session. Our trader saw real money selling in the belly and intermediates during initial weakness, though this later flipped into better buying in 10y point which helped stem the weakness. We note small block buyer of 5y May 113.75 puts with 8k changing hands. Some of the initial selling may be from those hoping to play the widely expected month-end rebalancing bid for bonds, which never really emerged.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 01, 2022 at 09:14
USD sees March payrolls Friday at 13:30 BST . Our economists expect overall payrolls to rise by 490k and private payrolls to rise by 500k. They expect a somewhat modest increase of 0.3%MoM in average hourly earnings in March, with some of the factors that weighed on February AHE potentially still affecting wages. The unemployment rate should fall to 3.7% in March. US ISM Manufacturing follows at 15:00 BST and is expected to rise to 58.9 in March from 58.6 in February.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 02, 2022 at 08:58
Our estimated allocation to bonds by investors globally stands at only
18% currently, the lowest level since 2008. 14 years of previous bond
overweights have been already erased and investors’ positioning has
transitioned to the pre Lehman crisis norms.
18% currently, the lowest level since 2008. 14 years of previous bond
overweights have been already erased and investors’ positioning has
transitioned to the pre Lehman crisis norms.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 02, 2022 at 08:58
The mirror image of this is a very high equity-bond equity position gap,
which currently exceeds the previous post Lehman period high of 2018
and is approaching the previous cycle highs of 2006-2007.
which currently exceeds the previous post Lehman period high of 2018
and is approaching the previous cycle highs of 2006-2007.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 02, 2022 at 08:58
In other words, investors globally appear to be currently very
underweight bonds both outright and vs. equities.
underweight bonds both outright and vs. equities.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 02, 2022 at 08:58
Historical experience suggests that severe bond fund outflows do not
last more than one quarter outside crisis periods.
last more than one quarter outside crisis periods.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 02, 2022 at 08:59
We thus believe this quarter’s rotation away from bond funds into
equity funds will subside into the coming quarters implying less bond
fund selling and less equity fund buying in Q2 and beyond.
equity funds will subside into the coming quarters implying less bond
fund selling and less equity fund buying in Q2 and beyond.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 02, 2022 at 08:59
Our analysis suggests that the 90bp rise in the Global Agg bond index
yield YTD more than compensates for the expected $1.9tr deterioration
in the balance between global bond demand and supply for 2022.
yield YTD more than compensates for the expected $1.9tr deterioration
in the balance between global bond demand and supply for 2022.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 02, 2022 at 08:59
No longer does the share of stablecoins in total crypto market cap look
excessive and as a result we believe that any further upside for crypto
markets from here would likely be more limited.
excessive and as a result we believe that any further upside for crypto
markets from here would likely be more limited.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 02, 2022 at 09:00
Aggregate balance has declined since mid-September last year, which was due to the issuance of additional Exchange Fund
Bills (EFBs) by HKMA. The decline prevented HKD interest rates from staying too low. In fact, both USD Libor and HKD Hibor
has risen since mid-January this year. However, USD Libor yield increased more than HKD Hibor, the yields spread between
USD and HKD widened.
We expect that the yield spread between USD and HKD will continue to rise further like what happened in previous US’s rate
hiking cycles, which will push USD/HKD to 7.84 by the end of this year.
Bills (EFBs) by HKMA. The decline prevented HKD interest rates from staying too low. In fact, both USD Libor and HKD Hibor
has risen since mid-January this year. However, USD Libor yield increased more than HKD Hibor, the yields spread between
USD and HKD widened.
We expect that the yield spread between USD and HKD will continue to rise further like what happened in previous US’s rate
hiking cycles, which will push USD/HKD to 7.84 by the end of this year.
Member Since Mar 23, 2022
107 posts
Apr 02, 2022 at 09:00
Worsening trade balance, portfolio outflow (e.g. negative net purchase of Korea stocks by foreign investors) , Covid-19 condition
and the strength of USD weighted on KRW against USD lately. KRW also suffered from recent heightened risk aversion.
Look ahead, KRW likely remains weak , we expect a 1210 for USD/KRW by end of Q2 as the geopolitical risks persist. We
remain positive on KRW for medium term and see USD/KRW to reach 1180 by year end, as the resolution to the Ukraine war
becomes available and Covid-19 becomes better contained.
KRW was the second least performing currency in the EM Asia for the past two years, and it is undervalued relative to economic
fundamentals.
and the strength of USD weighted on KRW against USD lately. KRW also suffered from recent heightened risk aversion.
Look ahead, KRW likely remains weak , we expect a 1210 for USD/KRW by end of Q2 as the geopolitical risks persist. We
remain positive on KRW for medium term and see USD/KRW to reach 1180 by year end, as the resolution to the Ukraine war
becomes available and Covid-19 becomes better contained.
KRW was the second least performing currency in the EM Asia for the past two years, and it is undervalued relative to economic
fundamentals.
