I had mixed results over the last week , my trades were based on risk on approach. I made some good trades.Best one being usdcad counter trade off weekly resistance with very small stop which paid off beautifully.
On the other hand my trade nzdjpy hit stop loss and reversed back up which was based on the same principle, which shows the disadvantage of a tight stoploss.
My trade on sp500 was not according to my plan and no surprise it was a looser. But I was happy that got out of the trade within my risk measures which is a good progress.
2 open trades remains, one within my trading plan and one isnt. I will see how things start next week and adjust my positioning accordingly.
I am keeping an eye on gold for a possible long entry once reversal confirmed.
I entered the week following my indicators with risk on approach similar to last week. It was a great week with excellent results. My best trades were counter trend trades as well as indices trades. I had some drawdown in the middle of the week but all finished positive by the end of the week.
The issue over the last week that I need to keep an eye on is the number of positions I have open at any one time which was quite high over the last week although most of the time I try to take quick profits.
The month ended very positive and I do not expect the same return every month, I would be happy with a 4-5% return.
Gold is still on my radar but the reversal is still not confirmed on my indicators. There are a few interesting charts to watch for next week. I will have a look on Sunday open and adjust my watchlist.
Last week , few interesting things to mention I took more risk than I should have done, which led to more drawdown than I would have liked. I could have entered my position at better prices but never mind, should be more patience next time. I do not think that the trend has reversed it is more likley a pullback in risk assets but at the end of the day it is not what I think its more what the market is going to do. So I will keep close eyes on the market direction this week and adjust my positions accordingly.
Review of last week. I have initiated a position in Gold last week, have also added a few positions which I probably should have done given the increased risk. This has led to bigger drawdown than anticipated. I will watch closely this week for continuation of upside momentum in risk assets. My aim to exit positions once partly once sp500 around 1400 if it gets there ! that would be my target as this is the leader for all risk currencies in my opinion.
Review of last week. I am expecting a major move in gold this coming week and I will be positioned accordingly. My view is still bullish on stock market and risk currencies as I see no major change on my charts. I continue to hold my positions based on that view and until the chart tells me otherwise there will be no change. My target on sp500 is still not reached so I will keep an eye on this and watch for any signs of trend change.
Review of Last week Gold made a big move as expected and I was well positioned for the move and made a nice profit on Gold, I am still holding one gold position. SPX moved as expected and getting closer to my target of 1400, I took some profits already but also holding some positions to reach target. the market has been very difficult over the last 4 weeks up and down but sticking to my views and reading the charts well with patience paid off. Next week the plan is to add to my positions if any pullback otherwise sit and watch.
I abandoned my target of 1400 on sp500 and sold my positions and risk on trades for 2 reasons 1- important news coming out over the next 2 days 2- More importantly I realized that we are hitting a major resistance area as you can see on my attached chart.
It was an interesting week with large swings in the market. I exited my positions in currencies and sp500 with good profits , I also secured some profits by shorting the market on Thursday. I have re-entered short on Friday impressive retracement as the market still sitting on strong resistance area as per my chart above. would be interesting to see if this resistance area stops the market advance.
The market reached my target of 1400 after all , however I have been short over last week. The market is showing strength and is possible to continue its upside move in which case I will adjust my positioning on any retracement. Bonds has bounced off support and prices are still below previous high on sp500 so no change of plan until these levels are broken.
On the other hand I had some good short term trades at price extremes and important pivotal points and managed to make good profits over the last week. These trades seem to well with very minimal drawdown so will keep practicing them and see how they do over the long run. Wish me luck
Equities continued the grind higher after breaking resistance and now challenging the highs. What I found interesting and capitalized on was the aussie weakness as illustrated in the chart. It failed to break my resistance line and moved south. I am still short aussie but managed to book some profits last week. Now this divergence between aussie and sp500 cant be ignored, also vix hitting new lows and some other indicators alarming of a top.
However from my long experience trading indices the grind higher can last for longer than one might think but eventually it will give up all the gains in one week. Having drawdowns on indicis doesnt bother me much because I know they will correct aggressively, I get more worried about currencies. I have been taking various positions and booking profits to make up for my drawdowns which is working brilliantly. I do not feel comfortable being long at these levles and i'd rather day trade and make profits to manage any drawdown which is not big at this point.
Big part of this is a mental game and some might argue why not cut your losses which is a fair point but it is what you feel comfortable with and how you manage your positions. As long you are in control of drawdowns you will be fine and markets will come to you and make you a profit. Markets are irrational and you cant expect them to hit your levels to the pip so when you predict a move you cant be accurate in the short run but you could be in the long run and you need to allow them room to breathe.
I think splitting positions into long term ones which can last for weeks and short term ones lasting a day to a week is a good way of managing risk. Now in the long run I am not sure which is more profitable, my experience for last few months has been short term trades but only until the account has run for a year I could speak of long term ones.
It was an interesting week with good trades and some bad ones. Aussie broke down as expected and sp500 is trying to catch up. bonds bounced off support nicely and yields are turning back down. I was already short indices but I shorted sp500 again this week, the reason highlighted in the attached chart. I also shorted GBP/JPY as illustrated in my chart. My bad trade was not taking profit on gold before breaking out, bad trade, I might close my shorts on retracement,the reason am expecting retracement is dollar strength which might be coming over the next 2 weeks. Based on this I am also short EURUSD as illustrated in chart. I didnt book any profits last week, because I have been a bit greedy. I feel that this is a start of a big move down on equities and more strength on dollar and bonds so holding on to my positions for another week or two could yield huge profits, its hard not to take profits but I kept calm so far.However I could be wrong !!
I Have attached a simple spreadsheet which I use to project my returns. It is very interesting to see the compound effect on your equity curve. Some might say this is not achievable!...well, I would say it is not easily achievable otherwise everybody could have done it but the issue here is not what you trade and how you make profit, it is all about psychology, greed and fear I know this is something you might have heard many many times. Believe me guys beating the market is easier than you might think but beating your fears and greed is you killer. I can assure you that it can be done and believe it or not I did it myself in the past hence I believe in it.. Anyhow have a play with this spreadsheet and live your dreams for the weekend at least....lol
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