Trend Reversal Algorithmic System for Maximum Risk Reward Ratio Discussion

Good morning Jose. I have messaged you on myFXbook.

Both statements are from the same source, but the numbers are different. I don't know why; honestly must be a glitch. They are results of my EAs, but I offer a managed service too.

Please email me. It's the best way to reach me.
    Email: [email protected]
    Skype ID is: tjdonovantrading

Hi Everyone.

Just a little data/news I find is worth noting for all those who trade Gold, the metal commodities, and us Forex traders.



Gold prices fell Wednesday, as a stronger dollar pushed investors to take profits on recent gains in the precious metal.

Gold for December delivery, the most actively traded contract, was recently down 1% at $1,166 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices for the precious metal have risen more than 5% from their October lows, as investors discount the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in coming months. Lower rates for longer support prices for gold, which pays no dividend and struggles to compete with yield-bearing investments when borrowing costs rise.

'There is very little news and the dollar is rising, and some investors are using the opportunity to take some money off the table,' said Bob Haberkorn, a broker with RJO Futures.

CHINA PRESS: The government will likely cut on-grid power prices again to reduce costs in the economy, the Economic Information Daily reports quoting sources. The State Council has decided to cut the price by around CNY0.03 per kWh on
average nationwide. The cut may come as early as November, the report says. It last cut power prices by CNY0.02 per kWh in April. ~ (Economic Information Daily)

Was the euro's recent strength a mere blip? Many analysts think so, with ANZ's Richard Yetsenda saying that the combination of further European Central Bank easing and an eventual rate hike from the Federal Reserve represents a 'perfect storm' for the benchmark pair. 'If the Fed can hike and the ECB's also doing some easing then [...] we could potentially see a break from this 1.05-1.15 range we've been in for quite a while,' adds Yetsenda. The theme of policy divergence was one that received a great deal of attention in early- to mid-2015, but the recent spate of safe-haven euro buying sidelined it in the wake of the Fed's failure to hike rates in September. EURUSD is presently trading at 1.1100.

EURO-DOLLAR: The pair starts the new week at $1.1009 toward the lower side of the $1.0994 to $1.1139 range witnessed on Friday, the beleaguered Euro still reeling from Draghi's dovish statement on Thursday.

Ahead of key economic data,the Asian session should see sideways consolidation, German IFO data is set for release at 0900 GMT.

Traders have cited large option expiry's at $1.1000 ($1.1billion) that may prove supportive on the day. Key support lies at $1.0938,which marks the 61.8% fib on the $1.0458 to $1.1714 rise, while hourly resistance is located at $1.1056. Euro-dollar currently trades at $1.0995, the range thus far has been $1.0989 to $1.1013.

US: DOLLAR INDEX TECHS: Focus Shifts To Aug Highs

*RES 4: 98.046 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 3: 97.593 - High Aug 11
*RES 2: 97.500 - Falling weekly channel top

*RES 1: 97.201 - High Oct 23
*PRICE: 97.127 @ 2200GMT

*SUP 1: 96.537 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 2: 96.009 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 95.942 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 95.690 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY:

With a bullish bias having been identified following Wednesday's close above the 95.000 level gains continued above key DMAs Friday. Bulls now shift their focus to the 98.334 Aug monthly high. Bears now need a close below 96.537 to ease bullish pressure and to bring key DMAs 95.454-96.009 back into the picture. The Bollinger band top (97.033) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

The probability of the Fed keeping the rate unchanged in October is 93.1 percent according to the CME Group FedWatch.

Although some Fed members have said that an October rate hike was a possible, the market sees a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that is followed by a press conference, like the one in December, as having a higher chance of delivering a rate hike announcement.

The Fed will publish its rate statement on Wednesday, October 28 at 2:00 pm EDT.

EURUSD traders and investors are hoping for a definite sense of direction from the FOMC when it meets this week.

The pair has seen mild correction in recent sessions, but a much needed clear signal from the committee will perhaps cause an over-reaction in Forex markets.

FOMC: December Fed hike here we come.

This FOMC statement is a clear potential setup for a December rate move judging from two key changes to the September statement.

First is the removal of the phrase from the September statement of the sentence discussing worries from global developments.

Second was the alteration of the language discussing the first rate hike -> moving to a 'whether it is appropriate' to move 'at the next meeting'. This is a major hawkish upgrade to the language by FOMC standards and all we need now is cooperative incoming data for the October and November US data cycles and we'll finally have our first rate hike in almost a decade in the bag.

This should be very USD supportive with further acceleration higher if next Friday's US employment report is a strong one.

thanks for these news/data updates Tom. I really appreciate it, it keeps me in the 'know'.
The FOMC today was pretty brutal though. I hope we get a good volatile session when unemployment data comes out in a few hours.

EURO-DOLLAR: $1.0970, before Draghi is due to speak in Frankfurt. Market is nervous, taking Euro back up to middle of the range, after spending several hours at or near the lows.

There is some small resistance at $1.0980 followed by $1.1020-30 Intraday highs Asia, and Europe respectively. $1.0936 is the
overnight low, but the important support is at $1.0890/96 Oct 28 low(FOMC react).

USD pushes higher still after in-line US October ADP payrolls change (+182k vs. +180k exp., though with a -10k revision to the Sep.).

Interesting to see the market aggressively leaning on a break of key levels in USD pairs before we even get a peek at the ISM non-manufacturing later today and especially the Friday jobs numbers from the US.

The reaction to the ADP data suggests that it may merely require in-line data on Friday or just a minor upside beat to consensus expectations (around +180k) to keep us on track for a Fed rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, provided, of course, that we don't have any major negative surprises for the November data cycle.

For now - watching the 1.0900 area in EURUSD for a break and the 121.50 area in USDJPY for the same - both of which look to be at least tested today, though we'll require Friday for full confirmation that the USD bull can continue charging.

Strong NFPs suggest December lift-off.

The significantly strong US nonfarm payroll report which came in at 271k has the market now pricing in a Fed rate hike in December.
However, while US labour markets are robust there has been little transmission into inflation.
Without clear pressure on the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, it’s unlikely they will launch in December.

Elsewhere, the Bank of England, Norges Bank and Bank of Thailand all delivered a dovish outlook in their policy meetings. Whatever happens in December, it’s clear that monetary policy divergence theme will entrench itself as a primary driver of asset pricing in 2016.

Finally, Swiss CPI printed in negative territory again, indicating that the overvalued CHF continues to have a damaging impact on the economy. Yet, with QE2 looming in Europe the SNB has limited options to defend the CHF from further appreciation and strong deflationary effects.

Canada released its best employment report in four months, posting a better-than-expected increase of 44,000 jobs and a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate to 7%. Canada has gained 143,000 jobs compared to a year earlier and best of all, they were all full-time.

Unfortunately, this report was overshadowed by the US NFP report but should serve to slow Canadian dollar losses.

Europe is becoming the latest battleground for oil producers seeking to maintain market share amid a global oversupply. Russia has protested Saudi sales to northern Europe, while also expanding its own share of Asian markets that were typically dominated by Middle Eastern producers. Iran will intensify competition next year as it seeks to regain lost customers following a nuclear deal with world powers that will lift sanctions.

Investors sharply lifted bets that the central bank will raise the benchmark rate at its Dec. 15-16 meeting after news that employers added 271,000 workers to payrolls, the biggest gain this year. The challenge will be reining in any expectations of a faster pace of tightening than Fed officials themselves foresee.

The USD has gotten a boost versus major, with only commodity pairs aided by the surge in oil prices able to resist the rise of the greenback.

The FOMC statement and Chair Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday have made an interest rate hike in December a live possibility.

Economic data has been positive overall. A narrower trade deficit than expected and impressive non-manufacturing PMI results have validated the Fed’s comments even as the ADP private payrolls and unemployment claims slightly missed expectations ahead of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.

The NFP is the biggest indicator in forex and is forecasted to show 179,000 new jobs. The convergence of a hawkish Fed that has marked December as a possibility and a strong NFP could result in the arrival of the much-awaited interest rate hike.

UNDERSTANDING THE U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS REPORT
 
Published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP report includes the total number of workers (excluding certain industries) that are added to the U.S. economy on a monthly basis.

It is published the first Friday of every month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Of note, it affects all major currency pairs by ratcheting up FX market volatility.

A day ahead of the release of the U.S. retail sales figures six Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members delivered speeches that were seen as hawkish, dovish and something in between. The market expectation as measured by the CME FedWatch tool puts the rate hike at 69.8 percent probability but as usual Fed members comments confused markets more than reassured them on the final outcome on December 16.

U.S. retail sales and the core data excluding automobiles have underperformed since coming in flat in August. Consumer demand is needed for sustained growth and outside of car sales the other sectors are struggling. The forecast calls for a 0.4 percent core retail sales change and a 0.3 percent of retail sales in October.

Lower prices in food and energy have affected the overall positive demand, but a turnaround is expected in the coming holiday season. Strong core retail sales could put the Fed one step closer to finally raising benchmark interest rates, but a weak indicator would raise further questions about the American economy's momentum after a strong jobs report. U.S. retail sales will be published on Friday November 13 at 8:30 am EST.