ATFX Market Outlook 13th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 13th June 2025

Wall Street Climbs Despite Middle East Turmoil; Safe-Havens Shine

Market HighlightU.S. initial jobless claims remained at an eight-month high last week, while May producer inflation came in below expectations. U.S. equities closed higher on Thursday, as Oracle’s strong earnings outlook boosted optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, countering concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East and a decline in Boeing shares. The three major U.S. indices posted modest gains: the Dow rose by 0.24%, the S&P 500 climbed by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq added 0.2%.

U.S. Treasury yields fell for a fourth consecutive session as markets absorbed signs of a weakening labour market and soft wholesale inflation. The U.S. dollar plummeted sharply, weighed down by disappointing inflation data, which revived expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were strengthened by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Gold prices have reached a one-week high, propelled by increasing geopolitical risks and renewed speculation about Fed rate cuts amid softer U.S. economic data. Spot gold rose by 0.9% to £3,384.04 per ounce, marking its highest level since 5 June. Crude oil prices finished slightly lower, as traders secured profits following Wednesday’s 4% rally, which was ignited by concerns that escalating unrest in the Middle East could disrupt supply.

Key Outlook

In the European session, attention will be on Germany’s final May CPI. Preliminary data indicated that annual inflation remained steady at 2.1%, unchanged from April and the lowest level since October 2024, reinforcing the ECB’s decision to cut rates last week. Later in the day, markets will monitor the preliminary U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June, which is anticipated to rise to 53.5 (prior: 52.2), marking a second consecutive monthly improvement amid easing inflation.

Key Data and Events Today:

12:30 JP Industrial Production YoY APR ** 

14:00 EU GERMANY CPI Final MAY *** 

17:00 EU Trade Balance & Industrial Production APR ** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JUN *** 

Key Data and Events Coming Week:

Monday: China State Council Information Office Press Conference and OPEC Monthly Report

Tuesday: BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference, IEA Oil Market Report and US Retail Sales

Wednesday: EU and GB CPI, US Initial Jobless Claims

Thursday: FOMC Rate Decision and Press Conference, SNB and BoE Rate Decision, US Holiday Market Close

Friday: New Zealand Holiday, BoJ Minutes, PoBC LPR, GB and Canada Retail Sales

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1605 / 1.1624

· Support: 1.1511 / 1.1495

EUR/USD dipped slightly to 1.1553 in early Asia, retreating from Thursday’s 7-week high of 1.1605 as markets became risk-averse following Israel’s strike on Iran. Despite broad USD weakness, the euro encounters near-term resistance at 1.1606. Technically, the price remains supported by the broken ascending channel top, where a bullish reaction is likely if it is tested. A break above 1.1606 would reveal further upside.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3613 / 1.3635

· Support: 1.3524 / 1.3503

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3560 on Friday. Despite weak UK data and a softer USD, expectations for a Fed rate cut are supporting the pound. Technically, the pair is retesting the 1.3524–1.3503 support zone. Holding above this could lead to another push towards the 1.3613 resistance.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 143.55 / 143.91

· Support: 142.37/142.00

USD/JPY extended losses below 143 on Friday as safe-haven flows favoured the yen following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran. Risk-off sentiment bolstered demand for Treasuries and JGBs, driving yields lower and strengthening the JPY. Technically, the pair has broken below its rising trendline and may retrace back to the 143.55 resistance level. A decisive drop below 142.37 may create space for a further move toward the 142.00 support level.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 74.20/ 76.25

· Support: 72.22/ 69.69

WTI crude surged past $70 and peaked near $72.70 following Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, heightening geopolitical risks. Technically, the breakout above $69.69 signals a bullish continuation towards $74.20, provided support holds. Markets remain focused on US-China trade developments and the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3445/3458

· Support: 3403/3387

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.68/36.89

· Support: 36.17/36.00

Gold surged past $3,430 after Israel initiated airstrikes on Iran, triggering safe-haven flows. Weak U.S. inflation data further bolstered Fed rate-cut expectations, supporting gold’s rally. Technically, the price broke through key resistance at $3,403. A retest of $3,403–$3,387 could provide a bullish re-entry towards $3,445, while a drop below $3,387 would diminish the outlook.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 43191/43414

· Support: 42618/42446

Dow futures rose 0.24% to 42,967.62 on Friday, countering Boeing’s decline as broader risk sentiment improved. Technically, the price is retesting support near 42,446. A rebound and a break above the descending trendline could create room for a push towards the 43,911 – 43,414 resistance area.

NAS100

· Resistance: 22085/22819

· Support: 21757/21651

The NASDAQ 100 rose by 0.24% to 19,662.49 on Friday, bolstered by gains in the tech sector as Oracle’s upbeat outlook fuelled AI optimism. Technically, the price remained steady above the 21,757–21,651 support zone, preserving the ascending trendline. A sustained rebound could lead to a test of the 22,085 resistance level.

 BTC

· Resistance: 105526/106724

· Support: 100448/99270

Bitcoin fell on Friday, breaking below $105,500 and hitting $103,000 due to profit-taking pressure. If BTC does not reclaim $105,526, it may extend its losses towards key supports at $100,448 and $99,270. A recovery necessitates a break above $106,724 to regain bullish momentum.

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