ATFX Market Outlook 17th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 17th September 2025

Gold Breaks Above $3,700 as Fed Rate Cut Looms

Market HighlightU.S. retail sales for August posted robust growth, but tariffs and labor market weakness continue to pose downside risks. All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower in choppy trading as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated rate cut. The Dow Jones fell 0.27%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.13%, and the Nasdaq eased 0.07%.

The U.S. dollar weakened across the board, with the euro climbing 0.9% to its highest since September 2021. The dollar index dropped 0.7% to 96.636, the lowest since July 1. The British pound rose 0.5% to a two-month high, while the dollar/yen fell 0.7% to 146.35, it’s lowest in a month.

Gold extended its bullish momentum ahead of the Fed’s decision, breaking above the $3,700/oz level for the first time. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded by 2% overnight as traders weighed potential supply disruptions from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian ports and refineries.

Key Outlook

Markets are firmly focused on the Fed’s upcoming rate decision in the early hours of Thursday. A quarter-point (25bps) cut is seen as a done deal, while a larger half-point cut is considered unlikely given signs of a rapidly weakening labor market. Beyond this move, markets have already priced in a series of cuts continuing into late 2026 to stave off recession. The key question now is whether the Fed delivers a dovish cut, which could extend record-setting rallies in U.S. equities and gold. Attention also turns to today’s Bank of Canada meeting, where a 25bps rate cut to 2.50% is expected amid months of job losses and a contraction in Q2 GDP.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 GB CPI MoM AUG ** 

17:00 EU CPI YoY Final AUG ** 

20:30 US Building Permits MoM Prel AUG **

20:30 US Housing Starts MoM AUG ** 

21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision ***  

22:30 BoC Press Conference ***  

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change ** 

Tomorrow: 

02:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision *** 

02:30 Fed Press Conference ***  

09:30 AU Unemployment Rate AUG ** 

19:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

22:00 US CB Leading Index MoM AUG ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1915/1.1929

· Support: 1.1809/1.1794

The dollar index slid to its lowest since July, fueling EUR/USD’s breakout above the 1.1809 channel top to test 1.1867. The pair is eyeing resistance near 1.1915, with technical momentum aligned to fundamentals as markets price in a dovish Fed. Short-term pullback toward 1.1809 may attract dip-buying, keeping the bullish structure intact.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3712/1.3737

· Support: 1.3575/1.3550

GBP/USD surged to a 2-month high at 1.366, buoyed by broad dollar weakness. Weak UK jobs data hinted at easing wage pressures, reducing the BoE’s inflation concerns. Technically, the pair may retest support around 1.3575 and is heading towards resistance near 1.3712. Pullbacks toward 1.3580 may attract buyers.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.02/147.31

· Support: 146.07/145.70

USD/JPY extended losses to 146.35, marking a one-month low as traders brace for Friday’s BoJ policy decision, where rates are expected to stay at 0.5%. Technically, the pair remains capped by the descending trendline and failed to reclaim 147.02 resistance. A retest of 146.07 support looks likely, with further downside risk if sellers hold momentum.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 65.35/66.03

· Support: 63.74/63.20

WTI crude settled at $64.52 (+1.9%) as Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries raised supply disruption fears. Technically, prices broke above the descending trendline and now hover near $63.74 support. A sustained hold above this level could open the way to $65.35 resistance.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3713/3720

· Support: 3658/3651

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 42.99/43.10

· Support: 42.03/41.88

Gold broke above $3,700/oz for the first time, reaching a record $3,703 as Fed rate cut bets, central bank buying, and a weaker dollar fueled demand. Technically, XAU/USD may approach resistance near $3,713, while $3,658 serves as key support. Holding above this level could sustain momentum for further highs.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45947/46068

· Support: 45545/45450

The Dow Futures fell 275 points to 45,758 as traders turned cautious before the Fed decision. Markets broadly expect a 25bp cut—the first since January—while focus is on the dot plot for guidance on further easing. Technically, US30 holds above 45,545 support, with 45,947 as near-term resistance. A rebound from support could open room for retesting highs if the Fed delivers dovish signals.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24471/24589

· Support: 23969/23820

The NAS100 slipped 0.07% after fresh record closes, with tech sector moves muted, though AI optimism remains supportive. Technically, price holds above the 23,969–24,000 support zone, eyeing 24,471 resistance. As long as the breakout sustains, sentiment around Fed cuts and AI momentum could fuel further upside.

BTC

· Resistance: 118597/119813

· Support: 114745/ 113548

Bitcoin trades between US$115,000–117,000, with cautious optimism as it consolidates in a symmetrical triangle. Fed rate expectations remain that key cuts would support BTC. Corporate treasury adoption is cooling, while the U.S. debate on a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” could lift sentiment. CME gap closure adds support, yet resistance holds.

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