ATFX Market Outlook 19th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 19th September 2025

Wall Street Hits Records as Dollar Rallies; Gold and Oil Slip

Market HighlightU.S. initial jobless claims fell last week, though the labor market continues to soften. Major U.S. equity indices closed at record highs, led by Intel’s surge after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment. The Dow rose 0.27%, the S&P 500 gained 0.48%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.94%.

The dollar strengthened against most major currencies. EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.1789. Ahead of the BoJ decision, USD/JPY climbed 0.6% to 147.88. GBP initially rose after the Bank of England decision but later turned lower, as the BoE slowed quantitative tightening while keeping rates steady at 4%.

Gold extended its pullback on profit-taking, with spot prices down 0.4% to $3,644.01 per ounce, as markets assessed the Fed’s rate-cut outlook. Oil prices also retreated, pressured by concerns over U.S. economic prospects and demand.

Key Outlook

The Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision, with markets widely expecting policy to remain unchanged. Japan’s relatively upbeat recent economic data and the BoJ’s previously hawkish stance continue to support expectations of a rate hike later this year. However, political uncertainty following the prime minister’s resignation may weigh on sentiment. Traders will closely watch Governor Ueda’s press conference for clues on the timing of a potential hike.

Key Data and Events Today:

11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision *** 

14:00 EU GERMANY PPI MoM AUG ** 

14:00 GB Retail Sales MoM AUG ** 

14:30 BOJ Governor Press Conference *** 

20:30 CA Retail Sales MoM AUG **

Key Data and Events Coming Week:

Monday: CA PPI, EU Consumer Confidence, RBA Governor Michele Bullock testimony

Tuesday: NYMEX Crude Oil October Futures Expires, AU/EU/GB Manufacturing &Services PMI, US Existing Home

Sales, US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Wednesday: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks, API Crude Oil Stock Change, JP Manufacturing &Services

PMI, EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate, US New Home Sales & Building Permits

Thursday: BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods

Orders, SNB Interest Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP 

Friday: US Core PCE Price Index, CA GDP, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1820/1.1859

· Support: 1.1728/1.1698

EUR/USD retreated 0.2% to 1.1789 after touching a four-year high of 1.1918, pressured by the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. Technically, the pair is holding above the key trendline support near 1.1728, where buyers may look to defend. A rebound from this zone could see a move back toward 1.1820–1.1859, while a break below 1.1728 risks a deeper correction.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3608/1.3636

· Support: 1.3491/1.3464

GBP/USD slid 0.6% to 1.3552 after briefly touching 1.3726, as the BoE held rates steady at 4% but slowed its bond sale pace. Technically, the pair faces support near 1.3491 along the rising trendline, with a potential rebound toward 1.3608–1.3636 if buyers step in. A decisive break below 1.3491, however, would expose deeper downside risk.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.60/149.13

· Support: 147.31/146.87

USD/JPY rose 0.6% to 147.88 ahead of the BoJ decision, as markets priced in a potential rate hike by March 2026. Technically, the pair reclaimed the descending trendline and is consolidating near 147.95, with key resistance at 148.60. A sustained move above this level could open the way toward 150.00, while support lies at 147.31.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 64.29/64.82

· Support: 62.55/62.01

WTI crude settled 0.8% lower at $63.57, weighed down by rising U.S. diesel inventories despite a draw in crude stocks. Technically, prices are holding above support at $62.55, with upside potential toward $64.29 if the rebound sustains.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3671/3685

· Support: 3627/3613

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 42.30/42.64

· Support: 41.21/40.88

Gold retreated 0.4% to $3643/oz as profit-taking weighed on prices, with intraday action showing a break below short-term trendline support. While the broader uptrend remains intact, immediate risks point toward $3,627 if bearish momentum persists.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46350/46443

· Support: 45948/45851

The Dow Futures climbed 0.27% to 46,142, with financial stocks providing support as the index held within its rising channel. The Fed’s measured tone on easing kept upside contained, though momentum remains constructive above 45,948 support.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24589/24708

· Support: 24357/24206

NAS100 jumped 0.94%, boosted by chipmakers after Nvidia’s $5B investment in Intel drove a 22.8% surge in Intel shares. The index is consolidating above 24,357 support, with potential to retest 24,589 if momentum holds.

BTC

· Resistance: 118597/119813

· Support: 115920/ 114745

BTC held above $117,000 after rebounding from $115,920 support, buoyed by the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut and prospects of further easing this year. On-chain data point to a retail-driven market with muted whale flows, supporting gradual upside toward the $118,597–$119,813 zone. A sustained break above $119,813 could confirm bullish momentum, while failure to defend $115,920 risks a pullback toward $114,745.

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