ATFX Market Outlook 20th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 20th June 2025

Middle East Tensions Soar as U.S. Weighs Entry into Israel-Iran Clash

Market HighlightU.S. markets were closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday, but the escalating airstrikes between Israel and Iran continued to stir markets. Reports indicate that former President Trump will decide within two weeks whether the U.S. will intervene, raising concerns over a broader conflict and boosting safe-haven sentiment. The U.S. dollar saw limited movement in the holiday-thinned session. At the same time, the growing threat of wider Middle East conflict and a series of European central bank rate decisions highlighted the challenges policymakers face amid rising uncertainty.

Gold prices were little changed amid quiet U.S. trading, as heightened geopolitical tensions offset pressure from the Fed’s hawkish stance. Oil prices jumped nearly 3%, with the week-long Israel–Iran conflict intensifying and market participants on edge over potential U.S. involvement.

Key Outlook

As markets continue to digest recent central bank decisions, focus shifts back to economic data on Friday. Germany’s May PPI will be watched for signs of continued negative month-on-month and year-on-year readings. The UK will release May retail sales figures—after four straight months of growth, any contraction could test the Bank of England’s patience in delaying rate cuts. Meanwhile, both the Eurozone’s June consumer confidence flash and the U.S. May Conference Board Leading Index are expected to remain in negative territory.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 EU Germany PPI MAY ** 

14:00 GB Retail Sales MAY *** 

20:30 CA Retail Sales APR *** 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: Global Manufacturing & Services PMI

Tuesday: CA CPI, Fed's Powell Delivers Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Testimony

Wednesday: BOJ Summary Opinions

Thursday: EU Leaders Summit, US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: US Core PCE Price Index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1570 / 1.1602

· Support: 1.1470 / 1.1439

EUR/USD fell to around 1.1480 on Thursday as safe-haven flows supported the U.S. dollar. The euro’s position as an alternative haven was weakened by its dependency on energy amid geopolitical tensions. Technically, the pair bounced back from support near 1.1470. A breakout above 1.1570 could pave the way towards resistance at 1.1602.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3536 / 1.3566

· Support: 1.3440 / 1.3410

GBP dipped after the BoE maintained steady rates but soon rebounded. Persistent inflation concerns and a stronger safe-haven dollar limited upside momentum. Technically, the price bounced from the 1.3410 support level. Holding above 1.3440 could facilitate a retest of resistance near 1.3536.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 145.46 / 145.77

· Support: 144.76/144.44

USD/JPY edged up to 145.56 as the Fed’s hawkish stance and geopolitical risks bolstered safe-haven demand for the dollar. Technically, the pair remains within an ascending channel, with a focus on the 144.76 support zone and the confluence of the lower trendline. A hold above this level could prompt a retest of resistance near 145.46.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 76.12/ 77.56

· Support: 72.68/ 71.53

WTI crude hovers near $73.25 during the Asia session, supported by rising US–Iran tensions but capped by lower IEA demand forecasts. Trump said he’ll decide within two weeks on a potential Iran strike, lifting safe-haven demand. Technically, WTI holds above the rising trendline from early June. Staying above $72.68 keeps the upside toward the $76.12 resistance in play, while a breakdown risks a deeper pullback.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3391/3415

· Support: 3354/3335

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.60/36.87

· Support: 36.16/35.93

Gold edged up to £3,373 as geopolitical risks offset the Fed’s slightly hawkish tone. The Fed held rates steady, indicated only one cut in 2026, and cautioned about persistent inflation. Reports of Trump approving Iran strike plans heightened safe-haven demand. Gold remains capped below £3,391 resistance, with key support near £3,354.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42440/42696

· Support: 41820/41617

The Dow Jones dipped during a quiet holiday session, sliding to its 200-day EMA near 41,820. Geopolitical anxiety, particularly regarding potential U.S. military action, pressured sentiment. Limited downside may provide technical support next week.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21825/21908

· Support: 21623/21557

The NAS100 futures remain under pressure due to geopolitical risks and a hawkish Fed. Market sentiment has soured as Trump considers military backing for Israel. Technically, initial support is at 21,557. A firm reclaim of 21,623 could trigger a rebound towards the 21,825–21,908 resistance zone.

BTC

· Resistance: 105910/106639

· Support: 102816/102098

Bitcoin steadies around $104,800, remaining above the 50-day EMA ($103,100) despite a hawkish Fed tone and escalating US-Iran tensions. Reports of Trump approving plans for strikes on Iran contribute to a risk-off mood, yet BTC receives support from ongoing ETF inflows. A drop below $102,098 risks testing $100K, while reclaiming $106,639 could revive bullish momentum. Momentum indicators still appear bearish in the near term.

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