Advertisement
show Expectancy in pips, along with the one $ Abstimmergebnisse
show Expectancy in pips, along with the one $ Diskussion
Aug 18, 2011 at 14:27
1,537 Angesehen
6 Replies
Mitglied seit Apr 25, 2011
260 Posts
Aug 18, 2011 at 14:27
Lately I'm finding lots of accounts that trade excessive lots sizes on demo, many to impress potential clients with their huge gains. If you would calculate the Expectancy in pips, and show it next to the one in $ (the same way you show Average wins and losses), it would give a better understanding of how good the system is.
For example, my personal opinion is that a system with an expectancy of 1 pip, that's showcased in a demo account with no commissions, will most likely be losing money in an account where commissions and slippage are part of the deal. While another system, with an Expectancy of 5 pips, has strong chances of performing well in a real account.
Or course there are other factors involved, but all in all, if I were to chose between 2 systems/accounts, both showing 10% a month, I'll chose the one having a higher pips expectancy.
I know we can manually compute the Expectancy in pips, since you give us all the data needed for that. I just thought it would be nice to have it done on your end, and maybe even used as criteria for searching.
Thanks for the great work you are doing at myfxbook!
Remus
For example, my personal opinion is that a system with an expectancy of 1 pip, that's showcased in a demo account with no commissions, will most likely be losing money in an account where commissions and slippage are part of the deal. While another system, with an Expectancy of 5 pips, has strong chances of performing well in a real account.
Or course there are other factors involved, but all in all, if I were to chose between 2 systems/accounts, both showing 10% a month, I'll chose the one having a higher pips expectancy.
I know we can manually compute the Expectancy in pips, since you give us all the data needed for that. I just thought it would be nice to have it done on your end, and maybe even used as criteria for searching.
Thanks for the great work you are doing at myfxbook!
Remus
He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Mitglied seit Apr 25, 2011
260 Posts
Aug 18, 2011 at 14:32
Made a typo in the title, and cannot edit it now: wanted to say "show Expectancy in pips, along with the one in $"
He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Aug 24, 2011 at 19:52
How about showing expectancy per unit of risk? For example expectancy in pips per pip risked, or dollars per dollar risked. It's almost the same thing that the author requests and definitely servers the same purpose (which is why I voted for this)...
forex_trader_32776
Mitglied seit Mar 28, 2011
942 Posts
Sep 01, 2011 at 06:10
I see the light. Makes sense to me. You have my vote.
Show expectancy per unit of risk?
Can you explain this in detail with an example? Wouldn't we need to know the actual Draw down in pips per trade to determine the amount of risk since many systems do not include a Fixed stoploss within the order history.
Show expectancy per unit of risk?
Can you explain this in detail with an example? Wouldn't we need to know the actual Draw down in pips per trade to determine the amount of risk since many systems do not include a Fixed stoploss within the order history.
Mitglied seit Apr 25, 2011
260 Posts
Sep 01, 2011 at 15:23
(bearbeitet Sep 01, 2011 at 15:24)
A quick note: the support team pointed out to me that the formula I provided for calculating the pips expectancy can be simplified a lot, as shown below:
Expectancy in Pips
= Average Pips Win * Winning Trades % + Average Pips Loss * Losing Trades %
= (TotalPipsWon / WonTradeCount) * (WonTradeCount / TotalTradeCount) +
(TotalPipsLost / LostTradeCount) * (LostTradeCount / TotalTradeCount)
= TotalPipsWon / TotalTradeCount + TotalPipsLost / TotalTradeCount
= (TotalPipsWon + TotalPipsLost) / TotalTradeCount
= TotalPips / TotalTradeCount
While it's now much easier to calculate, I still consider it's good to have it automatically computed, and shown along with the $ expectancy.
Expectancy in Pips
= Average Pips Win * Winning Trades % + Average Pips Loss * Losing Trades %
= (TotalPipsWon / WonTradeCount) * (WonTradeCount / TotalTradeCount) +
(TotalPipsLost / LostTradeCount) * (LostTradeCount / TotalTradeCount)
= TotalPipsWon / TotalTradeCount + TotalPipsLost / TotalTradeCount
= (TotalPipsWon + TotalPipsLost) / TotalTradeCount
= TotalPips / TotalTradeCount
While it's now much easier to calculate, I still consider it's good to have it automatically computed, and shown along with the $ expectancy.
He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Sep 04, 2011 at 11:38
expectancy per unit risk should be based on the stop loss, so if you make a 100 trades, each with a stop 20 pips away on opening and each one of those trades closed out at +40 then expectancy would be 2 since you can expect to make 2 pips every time you risk 1 pip. Naturally I see the problems inherent in this such as moving stops, or not trading with a stop loss, however for those that trade with a fixed stop loss it would be a good method of evaluating system performance that takes account balance out of the equation..
Mitglied seit Apr 25, 2011
260 Posts
Sep 07, 2011 at 00:09
Mission accomplished!
Myfxbook team added the Expectancy in Pips, and you can see it now next to the one in $. Many thanks for that!
Myfxbook team added the Expectancy in Pips, and you can see it now next to the one in $. Many thanks for that!
He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
*Kommerzielle Nutzung und Spam werden nicht toleriert und können zur Kündigung des Kontos führen.
Tipp: Wenn Sie ein Bild/eine Youtube-Url posten, wird diese automatisch in Ihren Beitrag eingebettet!
Tipp: Tippen Sie das @-Zeichen ein, um einen an dieser Diskussion teilnehmenden Benutzernamen automatisch zu vervollständigen.
