German business quickly recovers from the shock

Expert market comment from senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: German business quickly recovers from the shock
FxPro | 903天前

Germany's business sentiment index rose in December for the third month, returning to August levels on the back of more optimistic expectations, while assessment of the current situation has improved just slightly. Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany jumped from 86.4 to 88.6 in December, better than the 87.6 expected. In a commentary on the publication, the President of the ifo Institute notes that “business is entering the holiday season with a sense of hope”.

Market participants closely follow the Ifo index because of its strong predictive power for the economy. But even more interesting is that the strong reversal from decline to growth coincided with the turnaround in the German indices.

The rise in German business sentiment may also be good news for EURUSD buyers. In 2020 and 2009, EURUSD accompanied the index’s recovery for the first several months. However, breaking the multi-year downtrend may take a significant fundamental change, which is too early to tell.

The EURUSD appears locally tired after its two-and-a-half-month rally and in a tactically overbought condition. The Euro has been losing ground against the USD during the last two trading sessions, retracing from 1.0730 to 1.0600. Still, it is the only major currency that has managed to break above the 200-day MA, which many consider a technical change in the long-term trend.

The bullish trend in the single currency might continue if the ECB's decisiveness in fighting inflation does not negatively impact business sentiment.

By the FxPro Analyst Team

規則: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
ATFX Market Outlook 9th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 9th June 2025

The U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs in May—slower than in April, but still enough to sustain economic expansion thanks to steady wage growth. The report dampened hopes for a third Fed rate cut in 2025, with markets now pricing in just two cuts for the year. U.S. equities closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.5% for the week, the Dow rising 1.17%, and the Nasdaq climbing 2.18%.
ATFX | 17小時28分鐘前
Markets Brace for NFP Showdown | 6th June, 2025

Markets Brace for NFP Showdown | 6th June, 2025

On June 6, 2025, global financial markets are cautious ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to show 130,000 jobs added in May with a steady 4.2% unemployment rate. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD at 0.6510) declines amid USD recovery (DXY at 98.80) but downside is limited by market caution.
Moneta Markets | 3天前
Silver Shines, Dollar Wavers | 5th June, 2025

Silver Shines, Dollar Wavers | 5th June, 2025

On June 5, 2025, global markets are navigating a mix of economic data, trade uncertainties, and monetary policy expectations. The US Dollar (DXY at 98.90) recovers modestly after weak US data (ISM Services PMI at 49.9, ADP at 37K) but remains capped by Fed rate-cut bets (70% for two 25 bps cuts in 2025) and fiscal concerns.
Moneta Markets | 4天前
ATFX Market Outlook 5th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 5th June 2025

The ADP report showed that U.S. private payrolls rose by only 37,000 in May, far below the expected 110,000. The Fed Book noted that higher tariffs are adding to inflationary pressures while overall economic activity has slowed. Major U.S. equity indices closed mixed on Wednesday
ATFX | 4天前
ATFX Market Outlook 4th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 4th June 2025

Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell as markets awaited updates on tariff talks and budget negotiations, though yields slightly rebounded from intraday lows following the jobs data. The U.S. Dollar Index recovered from a six-week low, despite ongoing concerns regarding the Trump administration’s aggressive trade stance. The euro briefly reached a six-week high against the dollar before retreating.
ATFX | 5天前