ATFX Market Outlook 30th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 30th July 2025

U.S. Macro Showdown: GDP Rebound & Fed Rate Call in Focus

Market HighlightThe U.S. goods trade deficit for June fell to its lowest level in nearly two years, potentially fueling a strong rebound in Q2 GDP. U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with some corporate earnings disappointing investors. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back from record highs as market participants awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement. The Dow closed down 0.46%, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.38%.

Following a series of trade agreements between the U.S. and its major trading partners, the U.S. dollar surged to a one-month high against the euro. Markets also turned their attention to upcoming rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. EUR/USD dropped 0.39% to 1.154775, its lowest level since June 23. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.30% to 98.91, also the highest since June 23.

Gold prices rose overnight as investors awaited key U.S. data and the Fed’s policy outcome. Spot gold gained 0.4% to $3,326.31 per ounce. Oil prices jumped more than 3% on optimism over easing U.S. trade tensions and increased pressure from President Trump on Russia over the war in Ukraine.

Key Outlook

Tonight, markets will watch the U.S. Q2 GDP estimate, expected to rebound to 2.4% after last quarter's surprise contraction (-0.5%). July ADP jobs data is also due, with a forecasted gain of 75,000 after the previous month’s drop. The Bank of Canada is set to announce its rate decision, with inflation back within target, giving room to keep rates steady despite ongoing trade uncertainty. data could provide early signals on U.S. employment trends. At the same time, the July U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released and is expected to show continued improvement.

Key Data and Events Today: 

09:30 (GMT+8) AU CPI QoQ Q2 **

14:00 (GMT+8) EU GERMANY Retail Sales JUN **

16:00 EU (GMT+8) GERMANY GDP QoQ Flash Q2 ***

17:00 (GMT+8) EU QoQ Flash Q2 ***

20:15 (GMT+8) US ADP Employment Change JUL ***

20:30 (GMT+8) US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 ***

20:30 (GMT+8) US Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q2 ***

21:45 (GMT+8) BoC Interest Rate Decision ***

22:00 (GMT+8) US Pending Home Sales MoM JUN **

22:30 (GMT+8) BoC Press Conference ***

Tomorrow: 

02:00 (GMT+8) Fed Interest Rate Decision ***

02:30 (GMT+8) Fed Press Conference ***

07:50 (GMT+8) JP Retail Sales MoM JUN **

09:30 (GMT+8) AU Retail Sales MoM JUN **

09:30 (GMT+8) CN NBS Manufacturing PMI JUL **

11:00 (GMT+8) BoJ Interest Rate Decision ***

14:30 (GMT+8) Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda Press Conference ***

15:55 (GMT+8) EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate JUL **

17:00 (GMT+8) EU Unemployment Rate JUN **

20:00 (GMT+8) EU GERMANY CPI YoY JUL **

20:30 (GMT+8) US Core PCE Price Index MoM JUN ***

20:30 (GMT+8) US Initial Jobless Claims ***

20:30 (GMT+8) CA GDP MoM MAY **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1616/1.1644

· Support: 1.1527/1.1499

EUR/USD fell to 1.1548 under pressure from a stronger dollar and fading safe-haven demand. Focus shifts to Germany and Eurozone Q2 GDP, and weaker figures may reinforce bearish momentum. Technically, 1.1527 acts as key support, with potential for a rebound toward 1.1616 if it holds.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3396/1.3422

· Support: 1.3309/1.3275

GBP/USD hovers near 1.3350 under persistent dollar strength. While lacking immediate UK-related drivers, the pair could react to U.S. ADP and GDP releases as broader dollar sentiment shifts. Technically, rejection from the 1.3396 resistance could expose 1.3309 as the next support level.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.69/149.19

· Support: 147.53/147.14

USD/JPY trades slightly lower near 148.46, with markets cautious ahead of the Fed and BoJ rate decisions. The dollar's direction following tonight's US GDP and PCE inflation data will likely drive near-term momentum. Technically, failure to clear the 148.69 resistance level may see a pullback toward the 147.53 support.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 70.18/70.77

· Support: 68.31/67.74

WTI crude surged 3.75% to $69.21 on receding trade war fears and fading geopolitical risks. Market focus shifts to upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE figures; strong data could lift demand expectations and further fuel the rally. Technically, price may retest the $68.31 support before aiming for the $70.18 target.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3359/3374

· Support: 3309/3295

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.50/38.74

· Support: 37.48/37.24

Spot gold rebounded to $3327.69, facing resistance at $3334 and $3359, and trendline support near $3309. Technically, the price may be lower before a potential upside push. Strong U.S. data later today could pressure gold back toward trendline support.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44886/45016

· Support: 44456/44324

Dow futures dropped to 44,630 (-0.46%) after weak earnings from major firms. Price is now testing the underside of a broken uptrend line. Strong US GDP or ADP data could revive cyclical stock demand and support a rebound—but failure to break higher may risk another leg down to 44,456 support.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23484/24038

· Support: 23049/22607

The NAS100 declined 0.38% to 21,098.29 after hitting record highs. Tech earnings from Microsoft and Meta remain in focus. Price broke below mid-channel support, raising downside risk. Strong US GDP or ADP figures may lift rate expectations. The Next key support lies near 23,049.

BTC

· Resistance: 119442/120297

· Support: 116728/115885

BTC/USD hovers near 117,800, stuck in a contracting triangle. Price action suggests rejection from descending resistance (~119,442). A failure to break higher may lead to a downside test of the 116,728 area. Stronger US data or hawkish Fed tone could boost USD and weigh on crypto sentiment.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 24 locations and holds 9 licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Australia's ASIC, Cyprus' CySEC, the UAE's SCA, Hong Kong's SFC, South Africa's FSCA, Mauritius' FSC, Seychelles' FSA, and Cambodia's SERC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX delivers exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.