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3 reasons suggest that gold is overvalued
Jul 15, 2020 at 05:25
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6 Replies
Jul 15, 2020 at 05:25
1.In terms of real interest rates, short-term gold is a bit pricey.The last time gold traded at $1,800, at the end of 2011, real interest rates in the United States were -2% (two-year Treasury bonds -- core CPI). Now they are about -1.5%.Based on the real interest rate traded on two-year TIPS, it was also -2% in 2011 and is now -0.9%. With gold still around $1,800, it is overvalued in the short term.
2.Holdings in gold etfs have reached an all-time high of more than 1m ounces. Its market capitalisation now amounts to 2% of the Fed's existing assets. That level, even taking into account the Fed's unlimited money-making, is historically moderate and not low.
3.There are signs of a reversal in non-commercial holdings. Historically, when non-commercial holdings diverged from ETF holdings and gold began to decline, gold generally adjusted negatively.
2.Holdings in gold etfs have reached an all-time high of more than 1m ounces. Its market capitalisation now amounts to 2% of the Fed's existing assets. That level, even taking into account the Fed's unlimited money-making, is historically moderate and not low.
3.There are signs of a reversal in non-commercial holdings. Historically, when non-commercial holdings diverged from ETF holdings and gold began to decline, gold generally adjusted negatively.
會員從May 18, 2020開始
9帖子
Jul 16, 2020 at 10:03
I see your points but isn't gold mainly driven by risk aversion / inflation avoidance. Both of which could increase strongly over the short and medium term
Jul 19, 2020 at 09:20
I do no think that gold is given to much valuable. You could say that it is the standard among the valuable minerals. That is becaues compared to othe other valuable materials it is easier to get and can be afforded by qute a number of people. It is just like the USD. Most people know and prefer it because is known and accepted worldwide.
會員從Jun 30, 2020開始
43帖子
Jul 22, 2020 at 11:24
Gold prices rise because people think it will rise. Investors think it is a good hedge against inflation and they buy it when inflation rises. Rest, depends on your approach of looking at this financial asset - Gold.
會員從Jul 23, 2020開始
696帖子
Sep 17, 2020 at 04:41
Recently investor saws negative oil price due to covid-19. Investor now are fearing in investing in oil.
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