3 reasons suggest that gold is overvalued

1.In terms of real interest rates, short-term gold is a bit pricey.The last time gold traded at $1,800, at the end of 2011, real interest rates in the United States were -2% (two-year Treasury bonds -- core CPI). Now they are about -1.5%.Based on the real interest rate traded on two-year TIPS, it was also -2% in 2011 and is now -0.9%. With gold still around $1,800, it is overvalued in the short term.

2.Holdings in gold etfs have reached an all-time high of more than 1m ounces. Its market capitalisation now amounts to 2% of the Fed's existing assets. That level, even taking into account the Fed's unlimited money-making, is historically moderate and not low.

3.There are signs of a reversal in non-commercial holdings. Historically, when non-commercial holdings diverged from ETF holdings and gold began to decline, gold generally adjusted negatively.

You need to take note of this information.

I don't 100% share your views. But despite that, I like the way you're presenting this information and I agree with you in some ways. You're very precise in some thoughts, it's cool.

I see your points but isn't gold mainly driven by risk aversion / inflation avoidance. Both of which could increase strongly over the short and medium term

I do no think that gold is given to much valuable. You could say that it is the standard among the valuable minerals. That is becaues compared to othe other valuable materials it is easier to get and can be afforded by qute a number of people. It is just like the USD. Most people know and prefer it because is known and accepted worldwide.

Gold poses more difficulty than almost any other financial asset when it comes to determining fair value, Gold is poorly understood. There are many forces driving the price of gold, and the importance of those forces changes through time. This is very hard to model. when it comes to valuing a company, we can look at the fundamentals, the sales, the margins, new investments,But for gold, there is not much to work with.

Gold prices rise because people think it will rise. Investors think it is a good hedge against inflation and they buy it when inflation rises. Rest, depends on your approach of looking at this financial asset - Gold.