ATFX ​Market Outlook 26th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 26th August 2025

Markets Cool as Powell’s Boost Fades: Stocks Retreat, Dollar Rebounds

Market HighlightU.S. new home sales in July declined as persistently high mortgage rates continued to dampen housing demand. U.S. equities closed lower on Monday, with investors weighing the interest rate outlook while focusing on NVIDIA’s upcoming quarterly earnings, all while digesting last Friday’s strong rebound. The Dow Jones fell 0.77%, the S&P 500 lost 0.43%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.2%.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, rebounding from last week’s sharp drop after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, which reinforced expectations for a September rate cut. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.49% to 98.32, marking its biggest one-day percentage gain since July 30. The euro fell 0.69% to 1.1634.

Gold prices edged lower as market focus shifted to the upcoming U.S. PCE data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Spot gold slipped 0.16% to $3,366.25 per ounce. Oil prices climbed, extending last week’s gains, as traders anticipated further U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and supply risks from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Key Outlook

Today’s focus will be on U.S. July Durable Goods Orders, expected to improve after last month’s steep decline, though weak business capital expenditure may limit the rebound. The forecast calls for a monthly reading of -4% (previous: -9.4%). The U.S. August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is expected to ease to 96.4 (prior: 97.2). If the data meets expectations, it may not support an extended rebound in the dollar.

Key Data and Events Today:

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MoM JUL ** 

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence AUG ** 

22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index AUG **

Tomorrow: 

02:45 BOC Governor Tiff Mackle Speaks *** 

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***  

09:30 AU CPI YoY JUL **

14:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence ** 

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **  

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1673/1.1691

· Support: 1.1598/1.1580

The dollar index rebounded 0.49% to 98.32, dragging EUR/USD down to 1.1634. Technically, the pair is holding above 1.1598 key support and a rising trendline. A rebound toward 1.1673 resistance remains possible if buyers defend the 1.1598–1.1580 zone. Traders are now eyeing Friday’s U.S. PCE data for clearer Fed policy signals.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3516/1.3541

· Support: 1.3413/1.3389

GBP/USD retreated below 1.35 after a brief Powell-driven rally, pressured by the dollar rebound. The pair is hovering near 1.3470, with support at 1.3413 and resistance at 1.3516. A recovery depends on upcoming U.S. data, while the UK markets' reopening could add volatility.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.81/148.18

· Support: 146.60/146.22

The rebound in U.S. yields lifted USD/JPY back toward 147.0, after earlier safe-haven yen demand pushed it briefly below 146.8. Key support sits at 146.60, while resistance is at 147.81. A break above could open the path to 148+, but failure may trigger another dip.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 65.35/65.97

· Support: 63.48/62.71

WTI climbed nearly 2% to $64.80, while Brent settled at $68.80, supported by expectations of new U.S. sanctions on Russia and risks from Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities. Technically, $63.48 acts as key support, with upside potential toward $65.35 if momentum holds.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3394/3409

· Support: 3348/3334

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.95/39.17

· Support: 38.27/38.06

Spot gold hovered near $3,355/oz, with upside momentum capped by a stronger U.S. dollar as traders await Friday’s PCE inflation data for clearer Fed policy direction. Support lies at $3,348, while resistance stands near $3,394.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45656/45838

· Support: 45065/44886

The Dow Futures fell 0.77% to 45,282.47, pulling back after last Friday’s record high as investors consolidated gains. Technically, price remains within an upward channel, with support at 45,065 and resistance at 45,656. A rebound from the channel base could see another test of 45,656, while a break below 45,065 may trigger a deeper correction.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23663/23819

· Support: 23169/23017

NAS100 slipped 0.22% to 21,449.29, as investors turned cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report. Technically, the index is approaching the 23,169 support zone for a retest, which could lead to a potential rebound toward 23,663 if support holds. A break below 23,169 could trigger deeper downside pressure.

BTC

· Resistance: 111923/113788

· Support: 107056/ 105618

Bitcoin is trading near $109,700, pressured after breaking below its ascending trendline. A failed rebound at $111,923 could extend losses toward the $107,056 support. The technical structure favors the bears, with strong buying needed to reverse the downside bias.

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