China’s GDP Surprise Boosts Risk Currencies, CPI Eyed

China Lifts Risk Assets

On July 15, 2025, China’s economy delivers an upside surprise, growing 5.2% YoY in Q2 — slightly above the 5.1% consensus. The better-than-expected data boosts risk sentiment across Asia-Pacific markets. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) edge higher, both benefiting from stronger demand outlooks tied to China’s recovery. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen weakens as 10-year government bond yields in Japan surge to their highest since 2008, signaling policy divergence. Although Gold edges up near $3,350 ahead of the U.S. CPI release, today’s spotlight is on China’s ripple effects across global assets.

Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD)

Current Price and Context

Gold (XAU/USD) trades near $3,348, gaining traction as investors brace for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later today. A softer inflation print could strengthen expectations of Fed rate cuts later in the year, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Broader market sentiment is also supported by upbeat Chinese GDP figures, though the dollar remains stable for now.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tariff rhetoric between the U.S. and major trade partners sustains mild safe-haven demand, though immediate geopolitical risks remain muted.

US Economic Data: Today’s U.S. CPI release is a critical risk event. A softer inflation print could reduce Fed tightening pressure and lift gold prices.

FOMC Outcome: The Fed remains in wait-and-see mode, but market bets continue to tilt toward rate cuts in late 2025, which supports non-yielding assets.

Trade Policy: Rising tariff concerns between the U.S., EU, and Canada have renewed safe-haven interest in gold as investors hedge policy uncertainty.

Monetary Policy: Global central banks are diverging in policy paths, but the Fed’s leaning toward easing keeps U.S. real yields suppressed — a bullish factor for gold.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mildly bullish, with price consolidating just below resistance.

Resistance: $3,355 (immediate), followed by $3,375 and $3,400.

Support: $3,330, $3,315, and $3,290.

Forecast: Gold may range between $3,330–$3,375 ahead of CPI. A soft inflation print could trigger a breakout above $3,375 toward $3,400.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish. Traders are cautious but optimistic on gold’s upside if inflation data supports a dovish Fed trajectory.

Catalysts: U.S. CPI data, Fed speakers, Treasury yield movement, global trade tensions, and Middle East developments.

China GDP Forecast

Current Price and Context

China’s economy expanded by 5.2% YoY in the second quarter of 2025, slightly beating expectations of 5.1%. The growth was driven by stronger industrial output and resilient consumer spending, providing a boost to risk sentiment across Asia-Pacific currencies and commodities. This positive surprise helped offset ongoing concerns over global trade tensions, especially ahead of the U.S. CPI release.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: While U.S.-China relations remain cautious, today’s data deflects immediate concerns. Renewed U.S. tariffs on other partners have not directly impacted China’s Q2 growth.

US Economic Data: Traders are watching how U.S. CPI may influence global growth expectations and monetary policy divergence, with potential spillovers to China-sensitive assets.

FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed outlook supports demand for emerging market assets, including China-linked trades like AUD, NZD, and copper.

Trade Policy: With Trump’s recent tariff threats focused on Canada and the EU, markets have temporarily shifted focus away from U.S.-China tensions, allowing today’s GDP to shine through.

Monetary Policy: The PBoC continues to strike a balance — keeping liquidity steady while avoiding aggressive easing. This stability supports broader investor confidence.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Positive bias as risk currencies respond to growth signals.

Resistance: AUD/USD – 0.6820, NZD/USD – 0.6025, Copper – $5.60.

Support: AUD/USD – 0.6770, NZD/USD – 0.5950, Copper – $5.42.

Forecast: China’s data may keep AUD, NZD, and industrial metals supported unless U.S. CPI drastically alters risk appetite.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Risk-on tilt as China’s data beat forecasts; regional currencies and commodities favored over USD.

Catalysts: U.S. CPI release, Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales (due later this week), updates on U.S.-China trade rhetoric.

Australian Dollar Forecast (AUD/USD)

Current Price and Context

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) inches higher to 0.6800 as investors digest China’s stronger-than-expected GDP data for Q2 2025. The risk-sensitive Aussie benefits from upbeat sentiment tied to China’s economic recovery and a weaker U.S. Dollar ahead of today’s CPI release. Gains remain modest as markets remain cautious over global trade tensions and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation stance.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Easing immediate trade conflict concerns with China supports AUD, though broader U.S. tariff rhetoric continues to keep risk sentiment fragile.

US Economic Data: Focus is now on the upcoming CPI report. A cooler inflation print could pressure the USD and further lift the AUD.

FOMC Outcome: Expectations of delayed Fed cuts have limited AUD’s rally. However, dovish signals could renew upside momentum.

Trade Policy: Trump’s fresh tariff actions do not directly impact Australia, but global trade uncertainty keeps investors guarded.

Monetary Policy: The RBA is watching wage growth and inflation closely. Any dovish shift may weigh on AUD if inflation cools too quickly.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild bullish bias with room for upside on sustained risk-on tone.

Resistance: 0.6820, followed by 0.6855 and 0.6900.

Support: 0.6770, then 0.6725 and 0.6690.

Forecast: AUD/USD may extend toward 0.6850 if U.S. CPI data supports a dovish Fed. A hot CPI could reverse gains toward 0.6750.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic. Investors see AUD as a proxy for China’s growth outlook and risk sentiment.

Catalysts: U.S. CPI release, Chinese Industrial Production, Fed commentary, RBA rate outlook.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD holds positive ground around 0.5960, supported by China’s better-than-expected Q2 GDP report and the associated boost in regional risk appetite. As a commodity-linked currency with strong trade ties to China, the Kiwi dollar benefits from optimism around Asia-Pacific growth. However, caution prevails ahead of the U.S. CPI release and concerns over escalating global trade tensions.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global trade friction remains a concern, but the lack of direct NZ-related tensions allows room for Kiwi strength.

US Economic Data: Traders await CPI data for insight into Fed’s next move; a dovish surprise could further lift NZD/USD.

FOMC Outcome: Fed’s cautious tone and delay in rate cuts have capped Kiwi gains, though dovish hints may provide renewed upside.

Trade Policy: Trump’s focus on Canadian and European tariffs helps insulate the NZD for now, but broader uncertainty keeps traders wary.

Monetary Policy: RBNZ maintains a data-dependent stance; better Chinese data may ease pressure for near-term policy support.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Modestly bullish with room for continuation if U.S. inflation is soft.

Resistance: 0.5980, followed by 0.6020 and 0.6055.

Support: 0.5920, then 0.5885 and 0.5850.

Forecast: NZD/USD may retest 0.6000+ if risk-on sentiment persists. A strong U.S. CPI print could push back toward 0.5900 support.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish; traders see upside as long as China data stays solid and the Fed remains patient.

Catalysts: U.S. CPI data, China’s industrial data, RBNZ policy signals, global risk tone.

Japanese Yen Forecast (USD/JPY)

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY trades near 147.00, holding gains as Japanese 10-year government bond yields climb to their highest level since 2008. The surge in yields reflects investor expectations of eventual policy normalization from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), although rising U.S. yields and safe-haven flows into the dollar continue to keep the yen under pressure. The broader narrative remains one of yield divergence favoring the USD.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global tariff tensions and regional uncertainty keep safe-haven demand alive, but USD is currently favored over JPY due to yield dynamics.

US Economic Data: Strong inflation data or hawkish Fed commentary could further strengthen the USD against JPY.

FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious tone and higher-for-longer rate stance support USD strength, contributing to yen weakness.

Trade Policy: The reemergence of U.S. tariffs on major trading partners elevates USD demand and drives JPY lower despite local bond market dynamics.

Monetary Policy: BoJ’s resistance to aggressive tightening continues to widen the yield spread with the U.S., keeping JPY on the defensive.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish continuation above 146.50 key support.

Resistance: 147.35, then 148.00 and 148.50.

Support: 146.20, then 145.50 and 144.80.

Forecast: USD/JPY could climb toward 148.00+ if U.S. CPI surprises to the upside or if BoJ continues to delay rate normalization.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish for USD/JPY, as traders prefer the greenback for carry trades amid diverging central bank outlooks.

Catalysts: U.S. CPI, Fed minutes, Japan bond market commentary, and risk appetite swings.

Wrap-up

China’s stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth at 5.2% YoY lifted risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies on July 15, 2025. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars gained modestly as markets priced in sustained demand from Asia’s largest economy. Japan’s 10-year bond yields surged to their highest levels since 2008, weighing on the Yen amid expectations of BoJ tightening. Meanwhile, Gold approached $3,350 ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. CPI print, which could shape near-term Fed expectations. Investors now turn their attention to U.S. inflation data and upcoming central bank commentary to guide the next wave of market direction.

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