ATFX Market Outlook 28th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 28th August 2025

S&P 500 Hits Fresh Record High as Markets Brace for U.S. GDP Revision

Market HighlightThe S&P 500 Index closed at a new record high on Wednesday as investors awaited the week’s most anticipated event—Nvidia’s quarterly earnings after the bell, which will test whether the rally in AI-related valuations can be sustained. The Dow rose 0.32%, the S&P 500 gained 0.24%, and the Nasdaq added 0.2%. Nvidia’s revenue guidance beat expectations, but restrictions on sales to China cast uncertainty, sending its stock lower in after-hours trading.

Investors are also looking ahead to key U.S. economic data for policy signals while concerns about Federal Reserve independence persist. The U.S. Dollar posted a modest rebound, mixed against major currencies. EUR/USD slipped 0.09% to 1.1631, GBP/USD rose 0.12% to 1.3496, while USD/JPY was nearly flat at 147.42.

Gold was little changed as markets awaited upcoming inflation data for clues on potential rate cuts, with concerns about Fed independence lingering after Trump attempted to dismiss a Fed governor. Spot gold inched up 0.13% to $3,396.89/oz. Oil prices rose after data showed a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories, while traders also weighed the potential impact of new U.S. tariffs on Indian goods.

Key Outlook

Tonight’s focus is on the U.S. Q2 annualized GDP growth revision. The advance reading showed a stronger-than-expected 3% expansion, driven mainly by improvements in trade balance and consumer sentiment, partly offset by weaker business investment. Markets will watch closely for any revisions that could shift sentiment. Meanwhile, the ECB meeting minutes will also be released—if they signal that rate cuts are nearing an end, it could offer some support for the euro.

Key Data and Events Today:

17:00 EU Economic Sentiment AUG ** 

19:30 ECB Meeting Minutes *** 

20:30 US GDP QoQ 2nd Est Q2 *** 

20:30 US Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q2 ***  

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

22:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM JUL ** 

23:00 US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index AUG ** 

Tomorrow: 

07:30 JP Unemployment Rate JUL ** 

14:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales MoM JUL ** 

15:55 EU GERMANY   Unemployment Rate AUG ** 

20:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY Prel AUG **  

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index MoM JUL *** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final AUG *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1698/1.1717

· Support: 1.1612/1.1592

EUR/USD fell 0.09% to 1.1631 ahead of U.S. GDP revision and ECB minutes. The price remains above the 1.1612 trendline support, keeping a bullish bias. A rebound towards 1.1698 - 1.1717 is likely if support holds, whereas a break below 1.1612 could target 1.1592.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3541/1.3565

· Support: 1.3468/1.3438

The GBP/USD increased by 0.12% to 1.3496, supported by dollar weakness and a stronger UK PPI. The price moved above the descending trendline, indicating bullish momentum. Key support lies at the 1.3468–1.3438 zone; if it holds, upside targets are at 1.3541 - 1.3565. A break below 1.3468 would weaken the structure.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.80/148.18

· Support: 146.90/146.60

The USD/JPY held near 147.45 as traders awaited the U.S. PCE inflation report and monitored risks to Fed independence. Technically, the pair faces resistance at 147.80, while immediate support lies at 146.90. The price remains capped by a descending trendline, suggesting downside risks if 146.90 is broken, exposing 146.60.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 64.73/65.36

· Support: 62.71/62.07

WTI crude rose 1.4% to $64.15 after EIA data showed a larger-than-expected 2.4M barrel inventory draw, offsetting tariff concerns on India. Technically, price holds above the ascending trendline, with support at 62.71 and resistance at 64.73. A sustained break above 64.73 could pave the way for $65.36, while holding above 62.07 maintains the bullish structure intact.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3409/3420

· Support: 3371/3360

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.95/39.17

· Support: 38.27/38.06

Spot gold edged up 0.1% to $3,394.49/oz, supported by Fed independence concerns and focus on Friday’s PCE data. Technically, gold is trading within an ascending channel, with support at 3,371 and resistance at 3,409. Holding above 3,371 maintains bullish momentum, with a potential retest of 3,409 if buyers step in on dips.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45840/46023

· Support: 45251/45065

The Dow Futures rose 0.32% to 45,565.23, led by energy (+1.15%) and tech (+0.48%), as traders awaited Nvidia’s earnings. Technically, price remains in an upward channel, with immediate resistance at 45,840 and support at 45,251. A breakout above 45,840 may accelerate bullish momentum, while a break below 45,251 risks a deeper correction.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23664/23819

· Support: 23475/23322

NAS100 rose 0.21% to 21,590.14, supported by selective tech strength, though stretched AI valuations kept traders cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. Technically, the price consolidates between the 23,664 resistance level and the 23,475 support level. A break above 23,664 would open room for further gains, while failure could trigger a retest of 23,322.

BTC

· Resistance: 113788/115251

· Support: 108947/ 107056

BTC is holding within a broad ascending channel, currently testing near 111,600. A rebound from the channel base could aim for 113,788, and a breakout might open the route towards 125,000–130,000. However, a decisive fall below 108,947 would indicate weakness, expose the lower boundary of the channel and possibly lead to a test of 105,000.

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