EUR/USD

EUR recorded a decrease against USD on Friday. The session started at a price of 1.1203 around noon and the pair reached the highest level for the day at 1.1219. After lunch direction went down at the end of the day the euro finished at a rate of 1.1169. In case that the downward trend of the last few days continues, the pair will move to the first support at 1.0815.

Last week was marked by a sense of expectation in relation to the Greek issue which resulted in a marked volatility,
as investors react to possible statements, news and rumors.

Interesting moves on EUR/USD today - trying to filling the overnight gap but it reeks of some central bank intervention - we already heard about the SNB move but it appears that something else may be afoot...

The reasons are clear - what we are witnessing is the start of the unraveling of the Euro - yes Greece is a small player but the inability of the larger members to save face is worrying...

The biggest worry is the precedent of a referendum - where the people will decide - irrespective of the result if the concept of an anti-austerity referendum expands to other member states then the foundations will rattle further...

There has been a clear move by Euro to destabilise the Greek government in advance of Sunday's pole - but this may just play into the hands of the 'No' vote.

The facts are very simple Greece cannot afford to pay the interest on its loans just now - the austerity measures being called for will cripple the Greek economy further - so the only logical result is a default and the wiping out of debt arising from loans that should never have been offered in the first place.

It shows the complete futility of trying to create an economic union without a political union - which will never happen...

As we all know as traders the first cut is the cheapest so the IMF and the other creditors should cut there loses now...
Yes Greece has been an epitome of tax avoidance but its not those people who suffer now - its the ordinary Greek in the street - and poverty is becoming a real issue...

A few of the forecasts pointed towards the Euro moving towards parity with the USD this year - that now seems to be an excellent long term investment to capture 1,000 plus pips.

In addition to Greece;s pending defaults there is the impact of Eurozone QE and the US/EURO future interest rate fundamentals to consider...

So I guess I am quick a Euro bear just now :)



Sean

Gap filled and passed as well some analists they were betting that was not going to happen.

EUR/USD opened with a large gap but managed to recover it and continued climbing even after it recovered the gap towards the resistance at 1.1250, which coincides with the MA(89) on the four-hour filter chart. Should it break above that level it will probably reach 1.1300.

I'm really puzzled by the move in the EUR/USD today... I can understand the market trying to close the gap, but the whole day the pair has been climbing slowly. I'm no expert, but I kind of agree with Inari, it smells of the ECB silently intervening all day long in anticipation of the market reaction to Greece's default on it's IMF payment tomorrow...

Maybe you guys and gals have some better insight than me to what's going on...

Great rally today for the EUR/USD, 300 pip not bad at all. Let us see tomorrow if the pair going to continue climbing to the next resistance level at 1.1350.

What a huge Gap today, the Market is not stable due to Greece crisis.

Sothing is wrong it looks like it dosent mether wath grees do

The euro bounced back like crazy. Rumor says there are might be a deal on the table for Greece, but haven't we heard that before? according to Dijsselbloem, the door is still open for Greece to come back to negotiating, so let's see.

Greece hopes its people say no. A showdown scenario starts next Monday and we go round the circle again.
If Euro to fall then it be after default deadline of 11pm brig summer time tomorrow.l

So to put my money where my mouth is - going short at 1.12 let see what happens :)
One can help thinking the EUR/USD is being fattened up for the slaughter
I am sure Mr Soros, with his fond memories of GBP in 1992 is on the sidelines salivating :)

Sean

Indeed the SNB must be about out of reserves to buy Euros by now :)

Sean

Looking at a trading volume ladder on Hotspot FXI this afternoon it is interesting and pretty obvious the euro supporting intervention that is taking place. It is probably augmented by some of the algo-systems out there - 12:55 eastern and 13:30 eastern are two good examples where volumes suddenly surged and the euro shot up. Note the times - lunch time US and close of play in UK - strategically timed for most impact when traders are more likely to be away from their desks. But the steady falls should win out in the end. It remind me of the vain attempts of 'Nick Leeson' (aka Ewan McGregor) in Rogue Trader to support the Nikkei... and we all know how that ended :)


Sean

EUR started with powerful rise in the first day of the week. The pair opened at a rate of 1.1005 after strong uptrend throughout the session, eventually closed at a rate of 1.1235. In case that the upward movement continues, we can expect an attempt to test the resistance located at 1.1467.

puzzled with their drama? :D...
eurusd went down, bearish the gold, and china took all the gold from usd, and put it into the basic of banking, EUROPE!
boom baby, that's why a single fighter cant fight a whole union.. ever!

Sceadagenga posted:
Greece hopes its people say no. A showdown scenario starts next Monday and we go round the circle again.
If Euro to fall then it be after default deadline of 11pm brig summer time tomorrow.l

Yes agree and whats more if (and probably when the default happens) after today's bounce - its not really priced as the Eur/Usd is at levels where agreement was still on the cards - the default announcement will happen when the market volume is at its thinnest so we could see a big move to the south - perhaps prompting Asia markets to follow suit when they get going - 200 pips or more could disappear swiftly...



Sean

saintdev posted:
puzzled with their drama? :D...
eurusd went down, bearish the gold, and china took all the gold from usd, and put it into the basic of banking, EUROPE!
boom baby, that's why a single fighter cant fight a whole union.. ever!

Well Said and Excellent Observation 😎

Yesterday the EURUSD initially fell but found enough buying pressure at 1.0955 a Fibonacci retracement (50.0) to sky rocket and closed well in the green near the high of the day. The currency managed to close de downward Gap of 216 pips made on Sunday. Today we may expect a narrow range day after yesterday move of 246 pips. Key levels to watch 1.1237 the upper band of a daily resistance, the 1.1097 the lower band of a daily resistance.