The total debt of Greece amounts to 315 billion euros. The largest creditor is by far the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which holds 44.9% of the total public debt. The second largest share, with 17.5% of the total, is in the hands of private investors in the form of sovereign bonds.
Well the gauntlet has been thrown down by the creditors - no extension of the repayment due on Tuesday to allow for the referendum the following Sunday - big question now is (assuming there are no further twists) will the ECB support the Greek banks after Tuesday? I sense a few people running to the ATMs over there just now!
a misleading by news.. it is obviously a drama... a small country against all odds and no one take action? usd went strong last week, while china did the rest takeover? monday, 'payback' would come.. glory to gold!
I think Greek banks will not open and so there will be high volatility through Monday and Tuesday. Consolidation through Wednesday and a new cycle of Volatility after GBP on Thursday. EUR/USD down to 1.10500 could bring out the bulls.
Si eius XCIX% Ius ergo est Nefas - Sileo processus (If its 99% Right then it is Wrong - Restart the process)
My thoughts in this ever changing debate, for what it is worth, is that
There will have to be some capital controls imposed by Greece on its people now that it seems likely that the ECB will no longer provide the necessary liquidity.
Greece will default on its IMF loan repayment on Tuesday evening
The Greek people will face hardship this week and that may influence the NO vote come Sunday - even though the vote my no longer be relevant.
As for the Eur/Usd
For a few weeks it has started to build up a resilience to the Greek news and counter news stories...
Now however actuals are starting to materialise and here are the hard facts...
The impact of QE will affect the EUR/USD as it rolls out continues The Greek situation is now more tangible and this in no way strengthens the EUR/USD bullish cause Interest Rates are much more likely than ever to rise in the US than Euroland
Given that the medium term outlook for the EUR/USD has to be bearish and a trend towards USD parity seems the route with the highest probability...
Of course who knows for sure - there may be a last gasp Greek rescue - but that's the risk we take when making predictions :)
Yeah, you are right. But news reports are saying they capped the ELA at the previous max levels, which should still be enough for a couple of days? Key is the June 30th IMF loan repayment. Will be interesting what happens next. One of the key trades I had/have in mind is CHF/JPY short if nothing positive comes out before/after Tuesday.
Too bad that brokerages are closed and cannot enter any EUR/USD shorts atm, wonder where the EUR/USD will shift by the time they open in a couple of hours in Asia.... Any thoughts on whether the eur/usd will be lower during European hours than during Asian hours?
On Friday session the EURUSD fell and closed in the red near the low of the day, below the 50-moving average. The Greek drama is coming to an end as Greece prepares to hold a referendum on July the 5th over its bailout program. Key levels to watch today the 1.1097 daily support, 1.1058 Fibonacci retracement (38.2) and 1.0955 Fibonacci retracement (50.0).
HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors.
Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance.
You could lose some or all of your initial investment. Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.
Any data and information is provided 'as is' solely for informational purposes, and is not intended for trading purposes or advice.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.