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Whcih Economic new is the mostpowerful?

WorldTrader
Nov 10 2010 at 00:03
54 ieraksti
Am still Trying to figure out which is stronger among others, Any ideal peeps?

Elkart
Elkart
Nov 10 2010 at 04:18
941 ieraksti
Use to be NFP (Non Farm Payroll).

Now days that's a bit dead. But if anyone can move the market it's that one.


WorldTrader
Nov 10 2010 at 05:08
54 ieraksti
Thnaks,that is what i thought too

alentia
Nov 11 2010 at 02:35
2 ieraksti
any news are only a trigger for predetermined trend. Market can interpret negative news as positive just to stay on the trend.

Will Schaarrand
pipinvestment1
Nov 13 2010 at 03:05
219 ieraksti
Interest Rates is by far #1

Interest rates only come out quarterly, but the Interest rates are what will drive the market in trend direction for months if not longer. The best example of how Interest rates can affect Currency valuation is Look at the Dollar Index from the start of 2001 and Compare the Devaluation in relation to the lowering of Interest Rates. Just think, ' Investors like High Yield Investments'.

GDP #2

Gross Domestic Product is also Quarterly, but GDP numbers can only display the overall health of the countries economy. GDP can be manipulated through stimulus, Baliouts, and also inflation/deflation.

The rest of the Economic Indicators are mostly key factors that can forecast the GDP and Interest Rate Figures in the Future. These other Economical News Releases mostly add Volatility to the market such as NFP, PMI, CPI, Employment rates,




Robert (cashmoneyforex)
Nov 14 2010 at 12:27
5 ieraksti
None is bigger than the other buddy.

Any news event can move the same as the other. It all depends on 'deveation' from forecast as this is what produces the surprise factor.

Each news event is voted by a number of analysts this is what creates the forecast count and expected release figure. Once the release prints, it will have to be a strong deveation from forecast in order to shift a great amount in a short time (seconds/minutes) printing a positive or negi number does not mean the market will move a great deal as mostly forecasts have a high/low number (range) lets say core retail slaes m/m forecast is 0.4 there will also be an expected range of say 0.2-0.6 which will mostly be priced into the market based on the forecast, that means if the actual release prints 0.5 there wont be much of a reaction as its within the forecasted range.


Now lets say the actual release prints 0.7 or 0.8 this is outside the forecast range as therfor creats market surprise which in return will move price very quickly in seconds/minutes, as this number was not expected!

Trading the news is very easy if you now the deveation 'surprise' figure for each news event.

There is 2 things that can happen:

1: News prints a figure within the forecast range...NO TRADES

2: News prints a figure outside of the forecast range... TRADING situatioin

Will Schaarrand
pipinvestment1
Nov 14 2010 at 21:21
219 ieraksti
cashmoneyforex posted:
    None is bigger than the other buddy.

Any news event can move the same as the other. It all depends on 'deveation' from forecast as this is what produces the surprise factor. </quote=cashmoneyforex>
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True.. The deviation factor plays a big role at the initial release, but each economical news release has their role in respect of the overall picture (trend). Volatility (momentum from initial release) is often from the deviation factor. Good stuff though !

What I have mentioned above about Interest Rates and GDP figures are not my own words or my opinion, but true facts that drive the FX market.


Elkart
Elkart
Nov 14 2010 at 21:37
941 ieraksti
See me get nuked now...but news play almost no role in fx.

It influences something like 1% of trading and that 1% is very expensive as spreads climb. Most of the news releases are just whips. And maybe 15 minutes later if it was a significant release we might get some action.

To me it's just scheduled volatility, and as LTC found out the hard way, volatility can come at any time. For the most part I just ignore it as it has such a small impact on my trading. If you try predict it, it's double prediction, first you have to predict the data, then you have to predict the markets reaction to the data. Very few have the insight for that.

I gave up long time ago on news. Practically irrelevant. The answer of how to deal with news is the same as how to deal with volatility, which you have to answer anyway, because it will arrive with or without news.



Robert (cashmoneyforex)
Nov 14 2010 at 22:14
5 ieraksti

Elkart posted:
    . If you try predict it, it's double prediction, first you have to predict the data, then you have to predict the markets reaction to the data. Very few have the insight for that.



You don't have to predict anything bud.

I trade news spikes as one of my methods using my deviation figures which I have accumulated over 4 years.
I have traded news events for 3 of those 4 years. I have collected data over the past 4 years for the GBP- US-NZD-AUD-CAD over 48 news releases that print every month. With this data my records show that 33 of these have devaiton/forecast triggers, these triggers are figures that the release must distance its self away from forecast, I have also averaged the amount of pips each news event moves price based on the deviation if hit! I use a live news feed 'trade the news' that gives me the release figure as it is printed, no lag. I already have the tradable triggers in place (deviation number) from forecast. If the release prints out side the forecast range its a straight BUY/SELL depending on which side of the range.

Take the NZD retail sales that printed just 20 mins ago. The forecast was 1.1 the devaiton I need to trade this is 0.5 this is based on 4 years of reasearch, the release printed 1.6 giving me the figure I needed to trade. I took 28 pips in around 9 seconds.

I didnt need to predict anything, all I needed to do is wait to see if the release printed outside the forecast range and then bu/sell depending on what side the surprise factor hit, in this case it was positive (buy).

If the release printed inside the forecast range then no trade. Nothing gained nothing lost.


Robert (cashmoneyforex)
Nov 14 2010 at 22:19
5 ieraksti
I should also mention I trade both via MT4 and financial spread betting.


Monday is US Retail Sales m/m forecasted @ 0.7% with a forecast range of 0.4/0.8% my devaition trigger for this is also 0.5%.

I will wait for release to be broadcasted on 'trade the news' and BUY the USD/JPY or SELL the EUR/USD if the release prints 1.2%

OR

SELL the USD/JPY or BUY the EUR/USD if the release prints 0.2%

If this devation is hit then my records over 4 years indicate price will move an expected 50 pips within 10 minutes from release.

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