Interest rates only come out quarterly, but the Interest rates are what will drive the market in trend direction for months if not longer. The best example of how Interest rates can affect Currency valuation is Look at the Dollar Index from the start of 2001 and Compare the Devaluation in relation to the lowering of Interest Rates. Just think, ' Investors like High Yield Investments'.
Gross Domestic Product is also Quarterly, but GDP numbers can only display the overall health of the countries economy. GDP can be manipulated through stimulus, Baliouts, and also inflation/deflation.
The rest of the Economic Indicators are mostly key factors that can forecast the GDP and Interest Rate Figures in the Future. These other Economical News Releases mostly add Volatility to the market such as NFP, PMI, CPI, Employment rates,
Any news event can move the same as the other. It all depends on 'deveation' from forecast as this is what produces the surprise factor.
Each news event is voted by a number of analysts this is what creates the forecast count and expected release figure. Once the release prints, it will have to be a strong deveation from forecast in order to shift a great amount in a short time (seconds/minutes) printing a positive or negi number does not mean the market will move a great deal as mostly forecasts have a high/low number (range) lets say core retail slaes m/m forecast is 0.4 there will also be an expected range of say 0.2-0.6 which will mostly be priced into the market based on the forecast, that means if the actual release prints 0.5 there wont be much of a reaction as its within the forecasted range.
Now lets say the actual release prints 0.7 or 0.8 this is outside the forecast range as therfor creats market surprise which in return will move price very quickly in seconds/minutes, as this number was not expected!
Trading the news is very easy if you now the deveation 'surprise' figure for each news event.
There is 2 things that can happen:
1: News prints a figure within the forecast range...NO TRADES
2: News prints a figure outside of the forecast range... TRADING situatioin
cashmoneyforex posted: None is bigger than the other buddy.
Any news event can move the same as the other. It all depends on 'deveation' from forecast as this is what produces the surprise factor. </quote=cashmoneyforex> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- True.. The deviation factor plays a big role at the initial release, but each economical news release has their role in respect of the overall picture (trend). Volatility (momentum from initial release) is often from the deviation factor. Good stuff though !
What I have mentioned above about Interest Rates and GDP figures are not my own words or my opinion, but true facts that drive the FX market.
See me get nuked now...but news play almost no role in fx.
It influences something like 1% of trading and that 1% is very expensive as spreads climb. Most of the news releases are just whips. And maybe 15 minutes later if it was a significant release we might get some action.
To me it's just scheduled volatility, and as LTC found out the hard way, volatility can come at any time. For the most part I just ignore it as it has such a small impact on my trading. If you try predict it, it's double prediction, first you have to predict the data, then you have to predict the markets reaction to the data. Very few have the insight for that.
I gave up long time ago on news. Practically irrelevant. The answer of how to deal with news is the same as how to deal with volatility, which you have to answer anyway, because it will arrive with or without news.
Elkart posted: . If you try predict it, it's double prediction, first you have to predict the data, then you have to predict the markets reaction to the data. Very few have the insight for that.
You don't have to predict anything bud.
I trade news spikes as one of my methods using my deviation figures which I have accumulated over 4 years. I have traded news events for 3 of those 4 years. I have collected data over the past 4 years for the GBP- US-NZD-AUD-CAD over 48 news releases that print every month. With this data my records show that 33 of these have devaiton/forecast triggers, these triggers are figures that the release must distance its self away from forecast, I have also averaged the amount of pips each news event moves price based on the deviation if hit! I use a live news feed 'trade the news' that gives me the release figure as it is printed, no lag. I already have the tradable triggers in place (deviation number) from forecast. If the release prints out side the forecast range its a straight BUY/SELL depending on which side of the range.
Take the NZD retail sales that printed just 20 mins ago. The forecast was 1.1 the devaiton I need to trade this is 0.5 this is based on 4 years of reasearch, the release printed 1.6 giving me the figure I needed to trade. I took 28 pips in around 9 seconds.
I didnt need to predict anything, all I needed to do is wait to see if the release printed outside the forecast range and then bu/sell depending on what side the surprise factor hit, in this case it was positive (buy).
If the release printed inside the forecast range then no trade. Nothing gained nothing lost.
K - I'm not going to argue with your observation, so I'll concede that for an astute observer like yourself that news might be predictable. I've been ignoring news to long to make any knowledgeable claim as to it's predictability, my view has always been it's a double guess.
But I still maintain that of the 24 hours a day I trade (I'm never out) the amount of time that it has an effect is so insignificant that it doesn't matter.
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