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Humans vs. Robots
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FXRX

Biedrs kopš Mar 01, 2013  70 ieraksti FXRX Dec 11 2013 at 21:46 (labots Dec 11 2013 at 21:46 )
The price tag is a bit steep

You win some, you lose some.
ahuruglica

Biedrs kopš Jun 28, 2013  852 ieraksti ArdiFX (ahuruglica) Dec 12 2013 at 05:53
It's the golden ratio, sir.

c3po

Biedrs kopš Mar 01, 2013  51 ieraksti c3po Dec 12 2013 at 21:54
ahuruglica posted:

I would like to have healthy discussion when manual and automatic traders share their experience.

Thanks
Ardit H.


manual is like steam engine. worked well in the 1800's - 1900's. could go across the country fast.

automated system is like. plasma rocket. you can go across country fast, or go to Mars.

manual can't go to Mars.


MoneyCode

Biedrs kopš Nov 01, 2013  31 ieraksti MoneyCode Dec 12 2013 at 21:55
The Gleason report, was a study (ad hock) revealing a mechanical moving average strategy which tested successful from 1963 to 1983, was less successful or not at all, from 1983 up to 2003.

This report though not scientific by any stretch, demonstrates the evolution of price behavior over time, and the likely effect technology has in that evolution. The ability of automated systems to read the market and therefore trade it, change the market. The more systems there are, the more change occurs.

Quantum mechanics famous 'double slit' test, where merely observing an event, changed the results of the event, are another example of this principle. Automated trading systems do much more than observe the market, and so all the more change it.

This cause/effect of automated systems on the market, prove that for a system to remain successful over time, it must be adaptive, to capitalize on price behavior evolution, which would occur on all time scales.

ahuruglica

Biedrs kopš Jun 28, 2013  852 ieraksti ArdiFX (ahuruglica) Dec 12 2013 at 21:56
I remember reading the book The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. On the last chapter he describes the market as a real person. He also names him as Mr. Market. That chapter always stood on my mind. He describes Mr. Market as a real person having real human behavior. Sometimes he is emotional, moody, euphoric and often irrational. He states that Mr. Market is to serve us, not guide us.

We humans have feeling, and sometimes feeling get in our way. But as humans we also have friends and family and we can understand their feelings too. That is why we can adapt faster to market changes.

In my opinion good EAs are not designed to replace human minds. They are just a tool to speed up the process and perform mechanized tasks like any machine or computing equipment does.

Of course, this is just my humble opinion.

dgaf

Biedrs kopš Jul 02, 2013  57 ieraksti Dennis O. (dgaf) Dec 13 2013 at 11:13
Imagine the market as 10 traders at a dinner table. Everyone has their own friends & enemies. And Canada neutral, just sits there and watches while the traders fight & argue about their problems.

Sleep is for the weak
ahuruglica

Biedrs kopš Jun 28, 2013  852 ieraksti ArdiFX (ahuruglica) Dec 13 2013 at 16:17
Imagine Switzerland fixing the market.

pipinvestments

Biedrs kopš Dec 04, 2011  29 ieraksti Erik Dunn (pipinvestments) Dec 13 2013 at 21:48
dgaf posted:
Robots follow rules & trade with no emotions.


Yes, that is our main point as wel. Our system is an EA with manual oversight (same rules) - https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pipinvestments/pip-investor-20-1-year/605364

ahuruglica

Biedrs kopš Jun 28, 2013  852 ieraksti ArdiFX (ahuruglica) Dec 13 2013 at 21:54
@pipinvestments

Sorry pal that is considered spam.

Anyway, the account is demo, make te same result on real account and don't use custom start date. Then you are free to come back.

MoneyCode

Biedrs kopš Nov 01, 2013  31 ieraksti MoneyCode Dec 14 2013 at 11:32
Manual traders and automated systems most often Both use indicators. Indicators are a form of automation, and typically part of automated trading model logic, and manual traders technical trading plan.

The most common indicator could be the Moving Average. Moving average =Moving Mean.

It is widely acknowledged by statisticians that Mean can be distorted by outliers in the sample. Whereas Median gives a more robust measure of price than Mean.
https://www.bvmarketdata.com/pdf/Median-Mean.pdf

Most charting platforms are filled with Moving Average choices, but not often Moving Medians.

The most sought after quality in an automated trading strategy is ROBUSTNESS. It increases the odds for good OOS results, and helps guard against time erosion. Manual traders also pursue a robust styles of trading.

My question is this: If Robustness is the goal of a successful trading plan (automated or manual), then why isn't the use of the more Robust indicator (Moving Median) more prevalent than Moving Average (Moving Mean)?











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