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I'm looking for (Risk of Ruin) probability vote results

Vai jums patīk šis ieteikums?

Diskusija

Xavier (Waxavi)
Dec 04 2010 at 16:27
10 ieraksti
I would like this to be added into myfxbook, it seems like a nice feature.

Love this site

Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
Ethan (Staff)
Dec 07 2010 at 13:55
1398 ieraksti
Waxavi, thanks for the compliments!

Can you show an example of such calculation?

Xavier (Waxavi)
Dec 07 2010 at 20:52
10 ieraksti
LOL I don't know, sorry... I just used some js formula in some site that did the math.

I will find it as soon as I can!

Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
Xavier (Waxavi)
Dec 08 2010 at 13:38
10 ieraksti
ROR=1/(1 + %Exp)^(Ic/Ir)

Where
%Exp is the Expectancy as percentage.
Ic is Initial Capital.
Ir is Amount at Risk per each trade.

I would define Ic/Ir as how many consecutive losses a trader can afford before going broke, if I risk 1% per trade, then Ic/Ir= 100

Source: https://bit.ly/ggJsXa

My prob. of losing my stake is 1.63^-53... so practically 0, I think the formula is too optimistic, I would like some people's opinion!


Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
Xavier (Waxavi)
Dec 08 2010 at 17:40
10 ieraksti
Expectancy must be positive, there are different formulas, I think all of them reflect similar results.


Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
PacMan (stef)
Dec 08 2010 at 20:41
47 ieraksti
thanks wilkinson for this article very interesting
with this such good but simples formulas, i think it is simple for myfxbook to add risk of ruin information
- proba (account loss 20%)
- proba (account loss 50%)

Xavier (Waxavi)
Dec 08 2010 at 21:55
10 ieraksti
Then that would be risk of drawdown (50%)?

Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
PacMan (stef)
Dec 13 2010 at 21:52
47 ieraksti
yes, it's in the box
thans to all for this good idea and implementation

Xavier (Waxavi)
Dec 14 2010 at 00:50
10 ieraksti
Consecutive Losing trades are based on average loss?

Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
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