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I'm looking for (Risk of Ruin) probability vote results
Diskusija
Dec 04, 2010 at 16:27
1,389 Views
9 Replies
Biedrs kopš
10 ieraksti
Dec 04, 2010 at 16:27
I would like this to be added into myfxbook, it seems like a nice feature.
Love this site
Love this site
Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
Biedrs kopš
1418 ieraksti
Dec 07, 2010 at 13:55
Waxavi, thanks for the compliments!
Can you show an example of such calculation?
Can you show an example of such calculation?
Biedrs kopš
10 ieraksti
Dec 07, 2010 at 20:52
LOL I don't know, sorry... I just used some js formula in some site that did the math.
I will find it as soon as I can!
I will find it as soon as I can!
Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
Biedrs kopš
10 ieraksti
Dec 08, 2010 at 13:38
ROR=1/(1 + %Exp)^(Ic/Ir)
Where
%Exp is the Expectancy as percentage.
Ic is Initial Capital.
Ir is Amount at Risk per each trade.
I would define Ic/Ir as how many consecutive losses a trader can afford before going broke, if I risk 1% per trade, then Ic/Ir= 100
Source: http://bit.ly/ggJsXa
My prob. of losing my stake is 1.63^-53... so practically 0, I think the formula is too optimistic, I would like some people's opinion!
Where
%Exp is the Expectancy as percentage.
Ic is Initial Capital.
Ir is Amount at Risk per each trade.
I would define Ic/Ir as how many consecutive losses a trader can afford before going broke, if I risk 1% per trade, then Ic/Ir= 100
Source: http://bit.ly/ggJsXa
My prob. of losing my stake is 1.63^-53... so practically 0, I think the formula is too optimistic, I would like some people's opinion!
Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
Biedrs kopš
541 ieraksti
Dec 08, 2010 at 17:00
Biedrs kopš
10 ieraksti
Dec 08, 2010 at 17:40
Expectancy must be positive, there are different formulas, I think all of them reflect similar results.
Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
Biedrs kopš
47 ieraksti
Dec 08, 2010 at 20:41
(labots Dec 08, 2010 at 20:42)
thanks wilkinson for this article very interesting
with this such good but simples formulas, i think it is simple for myfxbook to add risk of ruin information
- proba (account loss 20%)
- proba (account loss 50%)
with this such good but simples formulas, i think it is simple for myfxbook to add risk of ruin information
- proba (account loss 20%)
- proba (account loss 50%)
Biedrs kopš
10 ieraksti
Dec 08, 2010 at 21:55
Then that would be risk of drawdown (50%)?
Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
Biedrs kopš
47 ieraksti
Dec 13, 2010 at 21:52
yes, it's in the box
thans to all for this good idea and implementation
thans to all for this good idea and implementation
Biedrs kopš
10 ieraksti
Dec 14, 2010 at 00:50
Consecutive Losing trades are based on average loss?
Sit Tight and Keep it Simple.
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