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Regan trader's profile

Regan
Regan

Info

Name Regan

Bio:
Living vicariously through my demo trading accounts. Once I had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt.

Trading style:
The main objective is to preserve and increase capital. The second (but equally important) objective is to minimize draw-down.

I use indicators from the ‘real world’ rather than a price chart or some other ‘black box’ method on my manual accounts and these indicators are what I believe are really driving price. My manual style is based on fundamentals first and technical analysis second.

The market obsesses over just one or two pieces of fundamental information at any given time on a particular currency or pair, so I focus on finding out what that is and trade in line with it.

1 - Which currency is moving?
2 - What direction is it being moved?
3 - Why is it moving that way?
4 - What expectations do other traders/analysts have about the move?


Motto:
Fundamentals First - Technicals Second

Experience More than 5 years

Location

Vouchers 0

Registered Oct 25, 2014 at 16:38

Blocked users 0

Chart

Systems by Regan

Name Gain Drawdown Pips Trading Leverage Type
DEMO-FXCM-54-CONTEST 82.04% 11.17% 677.2 Manual 1:200 Demo
DEMO-SCM-61-TRN 24.08% 50.13% 1281.4 Manual 1:100 Demo
DEMO-SCM-36-AUT 27.83% 17.28% 927.0 Mixed 1:200 Demo
Contest - Regan 17.00% 13.51% 437.0 - 1:200 Demo

Recent Posts

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Regan
Regan Jan 27, 2015 at 11:06
Month-end Flows

Let’s say the US equity market outperforms the European market by 5% in a given month. That will make the portfolio 5% longer of dollar’s than it was at the beginning of the month. Managers of passive portfolios (like index funds) will sell the “extra” dollars and buy euros to bring the overall fund back into balance. These flows can be very heavy at the end of the month and particularly heavy at the end of a quarter.
Regan
Regan Dec 03, 2014 at 08:16
Inflation

As a general rule, a country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. Countries with higher inflation typically see depreciation in their currency in relation to the currencies of their trading partners. This is also usually accompanied by higher interest rates. (Learn about Cost-Push Inflation Versus Demand-Pull Inflation.)
Regan
Regan Dec 03, 2014 at 08:16
Debt and Printing Money

Countries will engage in large-scale deficit financing to pay for public sector projects and governmental funding. While such activity stimulates the domestic economy, nations with large public deficits and debts are less attractive to foreign investors. The reason? A large debt encourages inflation, and if inflation is high, the debt will be serviced and ultimately paid off with cheaper real dollars in the future.

In the worst case scenario, a government may print money to pay part of a large debt, but increasing the money supply inevitably causes inflation. Moreover, if a government is not able to service its deficit through domestic means (selling domestic bonds, increasing the money supply), then it must increase the supply of securities for sale to foreigners, thereby lowering their prices.

Finally, a large debt may prove worrisome to foreigners if they believe the country risks defaulting on its obligations. Foreigners will be less willing to own securities denominated in that currency if the risk of default is great. For this reason, the country's debt rating (as determined by Moody's or Standard & Poor's, for example) is a crucial determinant of its exchange rate.
a moment ago
Regan
Regan Dec 03, 2014 at 08:16
Interest Rates

Interest rates, inflation and exchange rates are all highly correlated. By manipulating interest rates, central banks exert influence over both inflation and exchange rates, and changing interest rates impact inflation and currency values. Higher interest rates offer lenders in an economy a higher return relative to other countries. Therefore, higher interest rates attract foreign capital and cause the exchange rate to rise.

The impact of higher interest rates is mitigated, however, if inflation in the country is much higher than in others, or if additional factors serve to drive the currency down. The opposite relationship exists for decreasing interest rates - that is, lower interest rates tend to decrease exchange rates.
Regan
Regan Nov 15, 2014 at 10:41
Camarilla Pivot Points offer potential entries and stop levels for a test of S3 or R3, but do not offer profit targets. There is no set protective stop level or profit target when you enter on the breakout through S4 or R4. That does not mean that I should not use any, but it does mean that I need to identify them based on my risk parameters. Use the S3 and R3 levels as protective stops when trading the break through S4 or R4.
Regan
Regan Nov 14, 2014 at 12:18
What level might the SNB intervene in EUR/CHF?

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/11/12/at-exactly-what-level-might-the-snb-intervene-in-eurchf/
Regan
Regan Nov 08, 2014 at 17:23
When more money is infused into an economy, the value of the currency usually decreases. Quantitative easing reduce real interest rates and stimulate inflation, which are typically negative for a currency.

But there’s another force at work. QE devalues a currency and puts exports on sale to other countries. However, it also makes foreign imports more expensive, which may have a negative impact on key trading partners.

As some countries race to devalue their currency and various stimulus programs are implemented by global central banks, who will win in the end?
Regan
Regan Nov 05, 2014 at 11:05
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the principle gauge of the prices of goods and services, indicates whether the economy is experiencing inflation, deflation or stagflation. The CPI's results are widely anticipated and watched; the CPI plays a role in many key financial decisions, including interest rate policy and the hedging decisions of major banks.

It is CPI that determines QE and not one man.