Fed Minutes Reveal Officials Expressed Range Of Views About Interest Rate Outlook

(RTTNews) - Ahead of its next monetary policy meeting later this month, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday released the minutes of its September meeting.

The Fed announced its widely expected decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0 percent to 4.25 percent following the meeting, citing a shift in the balance of risks.

The minutes revealed that most participants observed it was appropriate to lower rates toward a more neutral setting because downside risks to employment had increased and upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased.

However, the Fed noted a few participants believed there was merit in keeping rates unchanged at the meeting or that they could have supported such a decision.

These participants noted that progress toward the central bank's 2 percent inflation objective had stalled this year and expressed concern that longer-term inflation expectations may rise if inflation does not return to its objective in a timely manner, the Fed said.

With regard to the outlook for monetary policy following the rate cut, the minutes revealed participants expressed a range of views about the degree to which the current stance of policy was restrictive and about the likely future path of policy.

Most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year, the Fed said, although some noted financial conditions warrant a cautious approach in the consideration of future policy changes.

In discussing risk-management considerations that could impact the outlook for monetary policy, the minutes said participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased.

"Participants noted that, in these circumstances, if policy were eased too much or too soon and inflation continued to be elevated, then longer-term inflation expectations could become unanchored and make restoring price stability even more challenging," the Fed said.

The central bank added, "By contrast, if policy rates were kept too high for too long, then unemployment could rise unnecessarily, and the economy could slow sharply."

The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently indicating a 92.5 chance the Fed will lower interest rates by another 25 basis points.