ATFX Market Outlook 8th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 8th July 2025

Tariff Truce Extended: U.S. Escalates Trade War, Wall Street Sinks

Market HighlightU.S. President Trump signed an order delaying “reciprocal” tariffs from July 9 to August 1 and warned of steep hikes from that date, escalating trade tensions. U.S. stocks closed sharply lower, with the Dow down 0.94%, the S&P 500 falling 0.79%, and the Nasdaq dropping 0.92%. Tesla also tumbled after Elon Musk announced plans to launch a new political party.

The U.S. dollar surged against major currencies after Trump confirmed the August 1 tariff plan. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.517% to 97.467, hitting a one-week high. USD/JPY led the gains, climbing 1.09% to 146.130 by the close. EUR/USD dropped 0.57% to 1.172.

Gold prices ended slightly lower overnight but pared intraday losses as Trump’s announcement triggered some safe-haven demand. However, a stronger dollar continued to weigh on the metal. Crude oil prices rose nearly 2%, as signs of recovering demand helped offset concerns over OPEC+’s larger-than-expected August output hike and the potential market impact of U.S. tariffs.

Key Outlook

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its rate decision today, with markets widely expecting a 25-basis-point cut to 3.6%. May's monthly CPI came in lower than expected, keeping the outlook for the RBA uncertain. On the one hand, the labour market remains tight, and productivity growth is sluggish; on the other hand, recovering demand is stoking concerns about prices. The RBA's forward guidance will be critical, especially comments from Governor Bullock during the post-decision press conference, which could significantly influence the Australian dollar and local equities.

Key Data and Events Today: 

12:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***

13:30 RBA Press Conference *** 

23:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations JUN **  

Tomorrow

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change *** 

09:30 CN CPI MoM JUN **  

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1786 / 1.1831

· Support: 1.1683 / 1.1638

EUR/USD fell 0.57% to 1.1720 as Trump’s new tariffs boosted the dollar, while EU–US trade deal uncertainty weighed on the euro. If a rejection occurs at 1.1786 and trendline resistance, it will maintain the bearish outlook, with 1.1683 as the next support level.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3690 / 1.3740

· Support: 1.3579 / 1.3529

GBP/USD fell 0.26% to 1.3620 as risk sentiment weakened and the U.S. dollar extended gains following Trump’s tariff escalation. However, the pair remains supported above the rising trendline and the 1.3579 level. As long as this support holds, the broader bullish structure remains intact, with potential upside toward the 1.3690 resistance level.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 146.62 / 147.23

· Support: 145.35/144.73

USD/JPY surged 1.09% to 146.13, leading the dollar’s rally as traders sought safety after Trump’s tariff escalation. However, the pair is now testing key resistance around 146.62. A failure to break higher may trigger a pullback toward the 145.36 support level.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 68.97/ 70.52

· Support: 65.47/ 63.94

Oil prices climbed more than 2% to $67.93/bbl amid signs of recovering demand, helping offset pressure from rising OPEC+ output and U.S. tariff concerns. Technically, WTI holds above the $65.47 area and could extend gains toward the $68.97 resistance.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3376/3399

· Support: 3305/3283

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.31/37.55

· Support: 36.29/36.05

Gold pared losses to close near $3,337/oz as renewed tariff tensions revived safe-haven flows. However, a firm dollar capped upside momentum. Technically, XAU/USD remains supported above $3,305, with scope to retest $3,376.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45207/45911

· Support: 43539/42822

The Dow Jones Futures fell 0.94% to 44,406.36 as broad risk-off sentiment weighed on equities. The consumer discretionary and energy sectors led the decline, while defensive plays, such as utilities and staples, offered limited support. Technically, price may retest the 43,539 support zone before any rebound attempt.

NAS100

· Resistance: 22882/23564

· Support: 22223/21381

The NAS100 dropped 0.91% to 20,412.52 as risk sentiment soured on Trump’s tariff escalation. Tesla led losses with a nearly 7% plunge after Elon Musk revealed plans to launch a new political party. The index remains within a rising channel, but a break below 22,223 could trigger a deeper correction.

BTC

· Resistance: 109244/109890

· Support: 107187/106552

BTC/USD is holding above the key support zone at $107,187–$106,552, showing early signs of bullish defence. A rebound from this area could trigger a move toward the $109,244 resistance. However, a break below $107,184 would negate the bullish setup and expose downside risk.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 24 locations and holds 9 licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Australia's ASIC, Cyprus' CySEC, the UAE's SCA, Hong Kong's SFC, South Africa's FSCA, Mauritius' FSC, Seychelles' FSA, and Cambodia's SERC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX delivers exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.